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Ukraine V

The UNSC (permanent members) is effectively the biggest swinging fists club. Expulsion of one of them wouldn't change the calculus much but there has to be a way of challenging the veto when exercised by a member grossly breaching the founding principles as Russia is doing now. ‘You’ve invaded a peaceful. sovereign state, you have one week to leave their territory’.

If Russia was kicked out, it would simply play into Putin’s Russophobia narrative. No, let Lavrov turn up with his phoney story boards and his demonstrable lies and have to repeat them over and over. The Pariah isn’t being ejected, the door his open, the lights are on, his seat is there for him so that he can come and talk about why he’s a pariah and what he intends to do about it.
 
Jim Audiomisc said:
There is. But IIRC it requires 2/3rds of all the UN member states to vote that a nation be removed from the Security Council. Alas, too many countries are client states or 'friends' of Russia. Or simply think they gain some advantage from letting the 'big boys' knock chunks off one another. e.g. it suits China on a political level to see Russia *and* 'The West' get weaker and arguing about other matters than the behaviour of China.
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Well it seems a murky area, see https://www.kcl.ac.uk/ukraine-invasion-should-russia-lose-its-seat-on-the-un-security-council. What a dirty game all these international affairs turn out to be, must be something very wrong in human nature.
 
Jim Audiomisc said:
it suits China on a political level to see Russia *and* 'The West' get weaker and arguing about other matters than the behaviour of China.
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It does. Xi seems to be playing this just right, he may not be doing well on the covid front (to say the very least) but this works out nicely for him: cheap oil and gas from Russia, a potential me too moment on Taiwan (in the fullness of time), and a weakened Russia and the West. Meanwhile they use soft power to gain more friends in the rest of the world as they offer help while Russia and the West are focussed on Ukraine. It will lead to them lending more money to the West and Russia too I am sure. He just needs to not opt for sides, not give too much support to Russia while not turning against them, and it all comes up smelling of roses for China.
 
I’ve been watching Timothy Snyder on YouTube, this is his discussion/lecture on Ukraine from 2014 on the annexation of crimea


And if you want a detailed dive into the emergence of Ukraine as a nation state then his very recent Yale lecture series is helluva involving and a brilliant watch.

First of 9 lectures below, I’m up lecture #5

 
More disarray in Russia, Guardian reporting that a member of Putin’s inner circle has criticised his conduct of the war directly and a Wagner Group Commander has defected to the US and said the Russian army is utterly dependent on the mercenary organisation in Ukraine.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...00-square-km-in-a-week?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

“Russia has reportedly sacked the commander of its eastern military district, Col Gen Alexander Chaiko, the news outlet RBC has reported. The reported departure of Chaiko marks the latest in a series of top officials to be fired after defeats and humiliations in the war in Ukraine”.
 
Is Prigozhin a potential replacement for Putin? It looks like he's shaping up for it. I wouldn't be surprised if he falls out of a high window sometime soon.
 
kensalriser said:
Is Prigozhin a potential replacement for Putin? It looks like he's shaping up for it. I wouldn't be surprised if he falls out of a high window sometime soon.
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I think that's what he's planning, but I suspect his private bodyguard army is no match for the FSB.
 
kensalriser said:
Is Prigozhin a potential replacement for Putin? It looks like he's shaping up for it. I wouldn't be surprised if he falls out of a high window sometime soon.
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Prigozhin and Kadyrov are two people in Russia with private armys. Their criticism of the RF top generals as well as Kadyrov's promotion to general-major yesterday has been widely noted.
 
DimitryZ said:
Prigozhin and Kadyrov are two people in Russia with private armys. Their criticism of the RF top generals as well as Kadyrov's promotion to general-major yesterday has been widely noted.
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Yes, your not dealing with some isolated oligarch here. They have been dealing with Putin for years and use the same playbook.
 
The fact that they are as bad as Putin is not the point, they are not Putin so would not lose so much face by reversing an obviously disastrous war.
 
TheDecameron said:
More disarray in Russia, Guardian reporting that a member of Putin’s inner circle has criticised his conduct of the war directly and a Wagner Group Commander has defected to the US and said the Russian army is utterly dependent on the mercenary organisation in Ukraine.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...00-square-km-in-a-week?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

“Russia has reportedly sacked the commander of its eastern military district, Col Gen Alexander Chaiko, the news outlet RBC has reported. The reported departure of Chaiko marks the latest in a series of top officials to be fired after defeats and humiliations in the war in Ukraine”.
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Well. That went swimmingly for Russia...
 
The atmosphere in Moscow is becoming more febrile. Fresh scapegoats are required to deflect from the Tsar. Of the few surviving opposition leaders not in jail or prematurely dead, special treatment is called for. Vladimir Kara-Murza is in jail but that’s not enough, the Kremlin is pursuing high treason charges against him. He’s already survived two poisoning attempts by Putin.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/301996/russian-opposition-figure-kara-murza-charged-with-high-treason

Any rival to Putin who might stick his head above the parapet and sue for peace would be taking an enormous risk. We could be in for the most glorious season of purges with the Lubyanka working 24/7 like the old days.
 
palindrome said:
Who? Putin or Prigozhin?

John
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Prigozhin. Kadyrov is clearly positioning himself too. Neither would be any kind of improvement on Putin. Kadyrov presents as a psychopath and brutal sadist. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Putin moves on them before they become too much of a threat.
 
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