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Ukraine V

Give them internet and phone access then maybe they’ll phono home and tell the folks what’s really happening outside the motherland.
 
On every front things seem to be accelerating. Putin has boxed himself in: Ukraine takes a bit of Russian soil today and America approves another tranche of support. This cannot end in a long stalemate I’m thinking….
 
Nick_G said:
How reliable is this? It is from the Torygraph, after all.
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The journalist who wrote the piece, Lewis Page, has a military background and writes on military matters. He has been widely published, including in the Telegraph and the Guardian: Lewis Page | The Guardian

Doesn't make him right of course, but I wouldn't dismiss him out of hand. I thought the piece linked to above was interesting, and made me wonder why we hadn't done some of this stuff already, never mind waiting for some sort of nuclear action by Putin.
 
MikeMA said:
The journalist who wrote the piece, Lewis Page, has a military background and writes on military matters. He has been widely published, including in the Telegraph and the Guardian:
Lewis Page | The Guardian
Doesn't make him right of course, but I wouldn't dismiss him out of hand.
Click to expand...

Fair enough. Let's hope he's right.

Of course, the clincher is the last paragraph, particularly the last sentence:

"Going nuclear could work out better for Vladimir Putin than this, especially if the US didn't react effectively. Nonetheless it's a plan which puts his personal survival at severe risk. If he's thinking straight he will do almost anything else."

IF he's thinking straight. The more cornered he gets the more irrational his behaviour will become...
 
So a concentrated Ukranian air campaign under conditions of suppressed Russian air defences would decimate Russian forces, but a concentrated Russian tactical nuke campaign (dozens of warheads) would not decimate Ukrainian forces?
 
Nick_G said:
How reliable is this? It is from the Torygraph, after all.
Click to expand...

Can't speak to it's actual veracity, but it's an opinion piece (aren't they all?) that does appear to have some insight into Putin and his relationship with his military commanders, which is what caught my attention. Taking it at face value, my takeaway is that, regardless of the unhinged ultimatums from the cornered psychopath, his generals are well aware of the challenges and suspect effectiveness, and even more formidable consequences, of Putin attempting to initiate a nuclear attack upon Ukraine, courtesy of the US and NATO. If his head of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, refused Putin's instruction, the article posits that one of them would, by necessity, have to be taken out.

Make of that what you will.

John

edit: I see Mike has already chimed in with some background on Lewis Page.
 
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MikeMA said:
The journalist who wrote the piece, Lewis Page, has a military background and writes on military matters. He has been widely published, including in the Telegraph and the Guardian: Lewis Page | The Guardian

Doesn't make him right of course, but I wouldn't dismiss him out of hand. I thought the piece linked to above was interesting, and made me wonder why we hadn't done some of this stuff already, never mind waiting for some sort of nuclear action by Putin.
Click to expand...
It paints an oddly reassuring picture and of course doesn’t take into account the likelihood of things taking an unexpected turn. Putin got to where he is by destroying all his enemies. If he made a miscalculation about Ukrainian capacity and will, he could make an even bigger one about the countries that make up NATO and do something very big and very menacing with the aim of achieving a climb down.

in a sense, he’s crossed the Rubicon already.
 
TheDecameron said:
I

It paints an oddly reassuring picture and of course doesn’t take into account the likelihood of things taking an unexpected turn. Putin got to where he is by destroying all his enemies. If he made a miscalculation about Ukrainian capacity and will, he could make an even bigger one about the countries that make up NATO and do something very big and very menacing with the aim of achieving a climb down.

in a sense, he’s crossed the Rubicon already.
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Lets just hope, if Putin was so minded, the Russian General Staff would rebel.

The Petraeus piece posted by @Weekender above is interesting and chimes with the Lewis Page piece linked to earlier.

But.....anything is possible.
 
Weekender said:
Petraeus: US would destroy Russia’s troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
The US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/us-russia-putin-ukraine-war-david-petraeus
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Peskov, at least, seems to have got the message about this and is displaying signs of realism. From the Guardian rolling news feed a few minutes ago:

Here’s more from Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s briefing earlier, where he said Russia favours a “balanced approach” to the issue of nuclear weapons that is not based on emotion.

It comes after Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin-appointed leader of the Chechnya region, said Moscow should consider using a “low-yield” nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

After Russia confirmed the loss of its stronghold of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, Kadyrov criticised top commanders for the defeat and wrote on Telegram:

"In my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons."

Asked about Kadyrov’s comments, Peskov said the Chechnyan leader and Putin ally had the right to voice his opinion, but that Russia’s military approach should not be driven by emotions.

Peskov told reporters:

"This is a very emotional moment. The heads of regions have the right to express their point of view. But even in difficult moments, emotions should be kept out of any kind of assessment. So we prefer to stick to balanced, objective assessments."

The basis for any use of nuclear weapons was set down in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, he added, under which they are permitted if nuclear weapons or another weapon of mass destruction are used against Russia, or if the Russian state faces an existential threat from conventional weapons.

Peskov added:

"There can be no other considerations when it comes to this"
Click to expand...
 
sideshowbob said:
Peskov, at least, seems to have got the message about this and is displaying signs of realism. From the Guardian rolling news feed a few minutes ago:
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Putin might be using the old Nixon madman technique and subsequently floating the idea of peace based on him stopping the war in exchange for his current territorial annexation, which sounds “reasonable” compared with his previous threats?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

Meanwhile his friend from Grozny is showing Putin up as a snowflake- he’s sending his schoolboy sons to fight in Ukraine ( allegedly),

https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1576865787197153280?s=21&t=pQib4uAwTqerUu3-qEc1pQ

….he should join them at the front.
 
IIRC most of Kadyrov's previous bombastic posts have been geo-located to areas well clear of any action (most not even in Ukraine), so I doubt this will really happen. Some slickly-produced propaganda videos shot in safe conditions seem much more likely IMHO ...
 
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