advertisement


Housing market

Brilliant idea .. not ..some lovely friends rent a flat off the council with leaking roof held up by beams of wood as they haven't repaired it . Got other friends who are council tenants who have a bad time too !!
 
time to force private landlords to hand over a proportion of their portfolio to local councils

I once spoke to Merton council about doing exactly that. They weren't interested, they're just not set up to do it. I believe Wandsworth may be, but not my local council. Croydon seemed to have a scheme, a sort of public/private initiative -- I telephoned them recently to discuss it but they didn't pick up the phone. I'd happily give it a shot if the scheme was fair, but it's just not possible.
 
Views on price falls then. We’ve seen a 20% average increase since 2019, when things were far more stable and IR’s lower than now and in the anticipated future. I’d say back to 2019 levels (-20%) at a bare minimum, with steeper falls (-35%) in areas which have shot up over the past 2 years. Any other thoughts?
 
time to force private landlords to hand over a proportion of their portfolio to local councils

Happy to hand over my entire portfolio (1 maisonette) to the council in exchange for the market value. They'd inherit a good tenant too. However, they don't purchase properties; they simply sub-lease them, which is not a bad deal if you want an easy life with a smaller return. My experience is that an easy life with this council hasn't happened in a decade yet, so unlikely to be so in the future.

The end product, though, even IF you could offload your property to the council, as that the landlord changes but the accommodation quotient (i.e. a tenant) doesn't. Who owns the letting property is irrelevant to the accommodation: occupant(s) ratio in a civilised world.
 
The difference Mike is that the council will be more prepared to let to an undesirable tennant than a private landlord, because of their obligations - not just those who will not pay the rent, but also antisocial ones.
 
Views on price falls then. We’ve seen a 20% average increase since 2019, when things were far more stable and IR’s lower than now and in the anticipated future. I’d say back to 2019 levels (-20%) at a bare minimum, with steeper falls (-35%) in areas which have shot up over the past 2 years. Any other thoughts?

Prices will fall most where affordability is most impacted. That’s to say, in neighbourhoods where pay rises and the level of disposable income will not keep up with the new repayments.
 
Prices will fall most where affordability is most impacted. That’s to say, in neighbourhoods where pay rises and the level of disposable income will not keep up with the new repayments.

That's a good summary.

People will have liquidity issues as inflation, stock market returns and I think ultimately wages will work against them. Going into 2008, people's main 'monthly' was their mortgage...there's a lot more on their monthlies list now, especially regarding their second biggest asset...car(s). Businesses aren't some sort of magic money tree that can raise prices and then wages...I used to run one and thank god I don't now is all I can say.

Ultimately, we're going to inflate the jobless queues...
 
Prices will fall most where affordability is most impacted. That’s to say, in neighbourhoods where pay rises and the level of disposable income will not keep up with the new repayments.

Makes sense. Those who are comfortably off might have to ditch the German cars / new EV etc to pay the increased mortgage but they’ll be able to stay in their homes (as long as they keep their jobs…). They’ll be the lucky ones. Remember prices are set on the margin. You only need a few forced sellers and few buyers around for prices to tumble.
 
Businesses aren't some sort of magic money tree that can raise prices and then wages...I used to run one and thank god I don't now is all I can say.

A friend recently sold his business. Over the moon is an understatement. Unbelievable amounts of hassle and aggravation for (once you’ve paid everyone else and HMRC) not a lot considering what’s required in terms of capital and risk.
 
A friend recently sold his business. Over the moon is an understatement. Unbelievable amounts of hassle and aggravation for (once you’ve paid everyone else and HMRC) not a lot considering what’s required in terms of capital and risk.

Tell me about it. The day I wasn't on the hook for wages bills was one of the best of my life!

Also dealing with an HMRC which is borderline incompetent when they are in the wrong but suddenly gets super efficient when the shoes on the other foot.
 
What I have noticed in the last decade or so is how unfearful of debt many people have become. You can hardly blame them in the ZIRP era but it's still worrying and looks like it's about to unravel. They always do, but this era is unusual even by historical standards
 
What I have noticed in the last decade or so is how unfearful of debt many people have become. You can hardly blame them in the ZIRP era but it's still worrying and looks like it's about to unravel. They always do, but this era is unusual even by historical standards
Half a century ago (where has that time gone) when interest rates averaged around 8% I was advised to take the largest mortgage I could find as over the period of repayment (25/30 years) inflation would erode the value of the original debt. And so it did.

No one has a xtal ball but during Covid lock down my gut feel was that the huge costs involved might be recovered/offset by letting inflation erode away the cost of the money borrowed thus reducing the countries debt.

DV
 
Half a century ago (where has that time gone) when interest rates averaged around 8% I was advised to take the largest mortgage I could find as over the period of repayment (25/30 years) inflation would erode the value of the original debt. And so it did.

No one has a xtal ball but during Covid lock down my gut feel was that the huge costs involved might be recovered/offset by letting inflation erode away the cost of the money borrowed thus reducing the countries debt.

DV

I'm guessing you didn't have a luxury car on finance and a load of others things too back then though?
Maybe you did.

Either way debt levels per capita are thru the roof.

All fine until interest rates change aggressively.
 
I'm guessing you didn't have a luxury car on finance and a load of others things too back then though?
Maybe you did.

Either way debt levels per capita are thru the roof.

All fine until interest rates change aggressively.

Yep, it’s all got to be serviced, month in, month out. Those couple of new motors on the drive at ‘only’ £400 a month each don’t look to clever when the mortgage is increasing by a grand a month. Particularly as most will be bolted into a contract and have to put their hands in the pockets to send them back to free up the cash flow.
 
Nope! I did have a nice Triumph Spitfire in BRG with wire wheels, overdrive on 3&4th gear. It also had both a soft and bolt on hard top for Winter driving. In those days you could legally drive as fast as you dared on the Motorway and using overdrive I got good mpg at 90+ mph. Memories. It went to my brother when we started a family.

My bank manager (yes) knew my name by sight.

DV
 
At least with a car the PCP won't go up but expectations for many when replacement time comes around will have to go down!

Not only will finance be very expensive but discounting currently is minimal though that could change when sales fall off a cliff.
 
my gut feel was that the huge costs involved might be recovered/offset by letting inflation erode away the cost of the money borrowed thus reducing the country's debt.

Though the vastly increased costs of holding that debt (that which is index linked) would surely counterbalance the erosion factor.
 
At least with a car the PCP won't go up but expectations for many when replacement time comes around will have to go down!

Not only will finance be very expensive but discounting currently is minimal though that could change when sales fall off a cliff.

Yes, the car market will certainly be an interesting one to watch.
 


advertisement


Back
Top