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The Premiership of Mary Elizabeth Truss.Sept 2022 - Oct 2022

Looks like Liz has a tough few days ahead, according to the Guardian. Who knew that trade deals might not be easy? :oops:
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...dmits-truss-as-she-flies-in-for-biden-meeting
In a move likely to disappoint Brexiters, she downplayed expectations that any trade agreement was imminent amid concerns that overpromising but then failing to get talks off the ground would damage her nascent administration.

On the plane to the US, Truss admitted to reporters: “There aren’t currently any negotiations taking place with the US and I don’t have any expectation that those are going to start in the short to medium term.”

It is the first time the government has conceded there is virtually no chance of getting agreement on an early bilateral trade deal with the US, Britain’s biggest trading partner, despite it being coveted by Brexit supporters as one of the major potential benefits of leaving the EU.

And according to Pippa Crerar on Twitter
Truss’s admission designed to (1) decouple prospect of trade deal from row over NI protocol
(2) prevent every bilat she has with Biden looking like failure b/c no breakthrough But it will also…
(3) disappoint Brexiteers who regard FTA as one of biggest wins of leaving EU
 
The only thing she’s got is Ukraine, publicly shaking her fist at Putin to distract from her catastrophic foreign policy failures and her party’s failed Brexit
 
If she's smart she'll throw the duppers under a bus...
Anyone like to give odds?
As an unknown quantity, now's the time to do it.
 
He looks bored with ADHD type behaviour. Apparently his SpAd is from the Tax Payers Alliance which tells you everything you need to know.
Liz 4 Leader is meeting Biden, von der Leyen and Friend or Foe? In New York this week, presumably to be put in her place.

US Vogue's HQ is in New York.
 
The value of sterling is determined by the desire of those overseas to hold sterling. At present that desire is strong and we are able to enjoy cheap electronics etc from the developing world. It is unlikely that there will be a big and sudden change in this. It would be self-defeating to dispose of all sterling holdings as the return would be greatly reduced due to the act of mass selling triggering a currency depreciation. So there is no need to be worried about the value of sterling falling dramatically, if that is indeed your point.

There is also a tendency to over-estimate the UK's dependency on imports. If prices rise of particular goods then arrangements can me made to produce domestically. The case with gas / elecy is a prime example. I am not sure what you mean by 'they buy from a 3rd country'. Are you mixing up imports and exports?

Quantitative Easing does not have any effect in the economy. It is simply a way of institutions transferring how they hold their risk-free assets. Its only purpose is to make you think that something is being done.


No. My concern isn't a "damatic" sudden fall. But the presumption that - regardless of how much QE we try, or the circumstances - other countries will cheerfully go on using our Sterling / taking our 'bonds' etc without worrying that their value may fall (as may Sterling) against their currency or USD which tends to set world price levels.

QE *below some non-infinite level" may have little or no effect *all else being OK".

I note your "at present" qualifier which implictly allows for the reality changing with time. That is particularly likely when a war pops up.

But there is a limit to how much milk per day you can get from any cow.

Afraid the reality is that the UK is far from self sufficient in food production. And changing that to make us self sufficient may take longer than just waving a wand. Bit like our dependency on gas.

Basic problem is that assuming QE will work as assumed may not always apply. Particularly in time of war. We can't expect to nail the value of Sterling in terms of USD, etc, to the wall *whatever* the circumstances and the scale of QE. At some point that would fail. Books taking for granted that overseas will always happily take bonds, etc, and not worry about their terms, future value, etc.

Interest rates change. Currency valuations change. Stuff happens. Life isn't as simple as the textbooks that economists write.

"The desire to hold Sterling" abroad is a variable. And as I said perviously, depends eventually on what (goods, products, property, etc) you decide you can get for it at some later date.

For economists to deny that 'money' is based on a *belief* that what you get later on was worth accepting that 'money' later on. And bonds are a form of money. Bits of paper (or computer records) that 'promise' something for the future use. And when designated in a given currency, any changes in the 'value' of that currency may have some effect when the bond-holder wants to redeem or sell it, or get interest.
 
What is it that you think QE does?

When used sensibly it can enable borrowing and the creation of money by the issuer. Provided that is kept *within* one currency regime it can be managed as a debt which may incur interest, etc. But be managable within that regime. However as with all money, people buy it because they feel it will be a sensible decision in terms of making them a return and not a loss *at some future time/date*, and can be 'sold' or 'cashed in' without loss.

Add in a currency exchange, though, and things get more complex.

As with many processes, it can work fine in appropriate circumstances. But not in other cases. Not a magic wand but a useful tool for some purposes when it makes sense.

I'm not arguing that QE is inherently wrong. But that like all tools it is useful in some cases, and useless or damagingly misapplied in others. Bonds are just another form of money with some specific properties.
 
I'm old enough to remember when the London Co-Op shops issued their own "currency" in the form of tokens and bits of paper and you got back some of this in change and as a 'divvy'. But curiously, other shops didn't take it despight the Co-Op being large and profitable. (Albeit with the profit being shared out to customer-members.)

I don't think I still have any of the tokens. But I do have some USD from the 1980s. I kept a 'float' to avoid needing to exchange it all every time I went to/from the USA. However I doubt I could buy as much coffee and doughnuts now as back then with them. Indeed, I guess they are no longer legal tender as the currency design hs probably changed. So just a keepsake.
 
He looks bored with ADHD type behaviour. Apparently his SpAd is from the Tax Payers Alliance which tells you everything you need to know.
Liz 4 Leader is meeting Biden, von der Leyen and Friend or Foe? In New York this week, presumably to be put in her place.

I still think it looked liked drugs. Possibly got the drugs from the person who styled Johnson's hair for the funeral. Or the person who picked Carrie's dress.
 
Lovely quote from an article on the Queen's funeral from The New Yorker:

Among those called to read from the Bible was Prime Minister Truss, whose deficiency as a public speaker will never again be broadcast so widely; having spent fewer than two weeks in office, no context could have placed her personal flimsiness in greater relief.
 
Lovely quote from an article on the Queen's funeral from The New Yorker:

Among those called to read from the Bible was Prime Minister Truss, whose deficiency as a public speaker will never again be broadcast so widely; having spent fewer than two weeks in office, no context could have placed her personal flimsiness in greater relief.
That quote makes me uncomfortable. Thatcher, Johnson, Cameron, Clinton and Blair, etc were all good, successful, public speakers, but they have led us down the path to where we are.

Truss, of course, takes us further down the same path, but if we want to change direction perhaps we should look at what our politicians are saying rather than how they say it.
 
That quote makes me uncomfortable. Thatcher, Johnson, Cameron, Clinton and Blair, etc were all good, successful, public speakers, but they have led us down the path to where we are.

Truss, of course, takes us further down the same path, but if we want to change direction perhaps we should look at what our politicians are saying rather than how they say it.

We can still have a laugh though.
Reminds me of King Charmless pleading for fruit
pickers

 
Lovely quote from an article on the Queen's funeral from The New Yorker:

Among those called to read from the Bible was Prime Minister Truss, whose deficiency as a public speaker will never again be broadcast so widely; having spent fewer than two weeks in office, no context could have placed her personal flimsiness in greater relief.

I blame theirishcaucusonthehill™. Mind you she is a walking gravitas vacuum.

Prime Minister Liz Truss tells Sky News she's prepared to be unpopular

she’s had two years head start under the offender.
 
Prime Minister Liz Truss tells Sky News she's prepared to be unpopular
While Truss outlines a 'dash for growth' based entirely on trickle-down economics, President Biden tweets:

"I am sick and tired of trickle-down economics. It has never worked.

We're building an economy from the bottom up and middle out."
 
Killer op-ed by Martin Wolf in today's FT (paywalled):
https://www.ft.com/content/a9be9db6-a91e-48e4-8d69-4bbfff7e0f5f#comments-anchor
"The economic consequences of Liz Truss"
"Is is surely a fantasy that further tax cuts and deregulation will transform performance". He dismisses Truss's notion that economic debate in the UK has been dominated for the past 20 years by discussions about distribution (the UK still has the highest inequality of distribution, along with the US) and that lowering taxes will stimulate growth (there is no clear correlation between tax take and prosperity, and the UK already has low taxes). The UK's perennial problems are low productivity and low investment.
A few choice samples:
"We need to recognize that 40 years on, Thatcherism is a zombie idea, for two opposing reasons - both for what was achieved and what was not."
"Her UK seems determined to be friendless" (re picking fights with the EU, the US, and China)
 
$1 = £1.13 suggests that international markets do not have any faith in the UK economy.

12 years of Tory rule (kleptocracy/kakistocracy), plus Brexit and Britain is on its knees. The Tories must have been praying for the demise of the Queen so as to distract attention.
 


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