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Ukraine III

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tonerei said:
Highlighted bit is the big problem for Ukraine and the rest of Europe. I struggle to understand the logic for the multiple repetitive posts on negotiations. Seems irrelevant.
Nothing about this war is about two sides. It is all about Russian aggression. Peace talks would be welcomed by anyone who does not want to see destruction or loss of life but Putin is way beyond that. It is very clear what he is aiming for and it is a do or die play. Sadly Ukraine are singularly in the firing line and there currently appears to be no silver bullet that can bring it to a halt quickly. Just surrender.
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The use of Chechens and Syrians and sending the Wagner Group out to assassinate the Ukrainian President and paying £40k to the family of every dead soldier is 'victory at any cost' territory. Sadly, until Putin finally decides what an acceptable 'victory' looks like (and that changes with every day as Russian forces fall behind in their schedule to take over Ukraine and get rid of Zelenksyy) negotiations are not going to get anywhere.
 
Seeker_UK said:
The use of Chechens and Syrians and sending the Wagner Group out to assassinate the Ukrainian President and paying £40k to the family of every dead soldier is 'victory at any cost' territory. Sadly, until Putin finally decides what an acceptable 'victory' looks like (and that changes with every day as Russian forces fall behind in their schedule to take over Ukraine and get rid of Zelenksyy) negotiations are not going to get anywhere.
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well, i am not so sure, some people in the intelligence community believe that Russia only has a couple of months of fight left in it and so the end game may come quicker than you think.

 
NeilR said:
some people in the intelligence community believe that Russia only has a couple of months of fight left in ...
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Some people think that all this has to end by May 9 with Russian victory or there will be great disaster for Putin personally. I am afraid there still will big and serious push from Russian forces.
 
NeilR said:
well, i am not so sure, some people in the intelligence community believe that Russia only has a couple of months of fight left in it and so the end game may come quicker than you think.

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I hope they're right, but the introduction of non-Russian fighters used to fighting in the conditions being created in Ukraine suggests that, even with the conventional army runing out of steam, there's a risk of a lot of fighting for months to come.
 
Seeker_UK said:
Sadly, Russia has a lot more equipment, young men and mercenaries it can commit to the meatgrinder before that happens.
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Yes an inescapable truth, Ukraine can't win. So what do we do, fuel the meat grinder or look for an off switch? To me both outcomes are unpalatable as the aggressor wins but one does end with less collateral damage and far fewer body bags.
 
NeilR said:
well, i am not so sure, some people in the intelligence community believe that Russia only has a couple of months of fight left in it and so the end game may come quicker than you think.

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The thing you need to remember about Military Intelligence is that it is mostly carried out by people that thought becoming a soldier was a clever idea.

I would like to think that the Russian army is almost used up but there are plenty of opposite opinions - It`s nice to hope though.
 
cooky1257 said:
Yes an inescapable truth, Ukraine can't win. So what do we do, fuel the meat grinder or look for an off switch? To me both outcomes are unpalatable as the aggressor wins but one does end with less collateral damage and far fewer body bags.
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^This
 
cooky1257 said:
Yes an inescapable truth, Ukraine can't win. So what do we do, fuel the meat grinder or look for an off switch? To me both outcomes are unpalatable as the aggressor wins but one does end with less collateral damage and far fewer body bags.
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That's it, isn't it? We have to look dispassionately for least worst and hope Ukraine and Russia can agree to it.

Given we know at best, Ukrainian forces can slow down Russian forces, Russia is not going to pack it in and go home and NATO is not going to wade in, the end-state (IMHO) will be:
  • Ukraine will remove the aspiration for NATO membership from it's constitution (Zelenskyy is preparing the ground for this by calling NATO out for not imposing an NFZ).
  • Ukraine will be allowed to join the EU but as a Neutral State and exmept from the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy.
  • Russia will keep Crimea (although Ukraine's constitution will continue to push for its return to Ukraine control).
  • Donetsk and Luhansk will remain Russia-facing 'independent' states,
  • The rest of the Donbas will remain in Ukrainian control and and insurgency will continue to be fought there with Russia and other nations providing military support to both sides.
The question is how long it will take to get there. It's very unpalatable to Ukraine but they have no means to fight to push the borders back and keep them where they were pre-2014.
 
My biggest worries is that in case of Ukraine surrender, Ukrainian people will be forced to leave and they will be replaced by Russian people. It happened before and it is common practice for Russia in their occupied territories.
 
gints said:
My biggest worries is that in case of Ukraine surrender, Ukrainian people will be forced to leave and they will be replaced by Russian people. It happened before and it is common practice for Russia in their occupied territories.
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That's one of the reasons why Donetsk and Luhansk are, to all intents and purposes, lost to Ukraine.
 
gints said:
My biggest worries is that in case of Ukraine surrender, Ukrainian people will be forced to leave and they will be replaced by Russian people. It happened before and it is common practice for Russia in their occupied territories.
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Yes, my Brother in law and his Ukranian family (somewhere in Europe still waiting for a UK visa) want to go back to Ukraine when they can but there may not be anywhere or anybody to go back to.
 
cooky1257 said:
Democracy isn't worth shit if you have no home, no water, no sewer system, no electricity, no functioning health service and that reality is coming to Ukraine.
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'Wars always end with negotiation' glosses over that the terms may vary over an extremely wide range, from 'we are your slaves' to 'aggressor leaves right now and owes compensation.' If Ukraine gets terms that preserve its sovereignty, all damage to property can be cured in time. If not, their suffering will continue and continue.

The purpose of any war is to secure a good peace. Negotiations succeed when the parties come to agree on what the best available peace is. Battle results are strongly influential; sacrifice may be worth it.
 
An excellent article from today's NYT puts the realistic position very well:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/opinion/ukraine-russia-war-nato-iraq-policy.html

Some sort of compromise is better than a giant-sized version of The Alamo. We all admire the courage of the Ukranians, but they are confronted with someone who is much bigger than they are, has more resources and is quite prepared to destroy the country in order to save it à la Vietnam. Best to have half a loaf.
 
cooky1257 said:
I'm with Zelensky and no doubt his advisers on this, the time to negotiate a peace deal is now, while he's stalled Russian ground forces, forcing them to change tactics and in all probability abandon any preconceived ideas of a walk over open armed surrender that may have influenced Putin's thinking and before the Russians switch to wholsale aerial bombardment both targeted and indiscriminate.

Best case: Putin negotiates in good faith.....

I can see Putin withdrawing from the north and north east but will consolidate all gains made in the separatist regions and along the Black Sea coast as far as Odessa with Odessa remaining in Ukraine hands and affording access to the Black Sea.
Ukraine won't disarm but will agree to a non NATO Neutral status.
Putin will then die a painful and slow death with a new Russian regime abandoning any efforts to destabilise what's left of Ukraine or former Soviet states.( that's the happily ever after bit)

Worse case:

Doesn't bear thinking about.
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Ukraine will have to fight hard to get anything like that best case. They do not have the luxury of not thinking about the worst case.
 
cooky1257 said:
Yes an inescapable truth, Ukraine can't win. So what do we do, fuel the meat grinder or look for an off switch? To me both outcomes are unpalatable as the aggressor wins but one does end with less collateral damage and far fewer body bags.
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Ukraine can win, It's up to them how much that costs them in lives.
 
MUTTY1 said:
One of the upsides of this thread has been people digging up useful resources. Hopefully, it will get back on track soon. I found this quite interesting. I’ve watched some other stuff by Berja and don’t think he is being contrarian for the sake of it.
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Thanks for this.
 
This war has galvanised the world in a way I've never seen, resistance to Russian goods, trade, etc, will continue long after the murder has stopped. Ukraine might not win, but Russia will lose.
 
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