Ukraine

[PsB]

Yes. You point to a problem. Those dollars and euros are held by the Russian Central Bank, although they are held on computers in Europe.

Therefore to seize those assets would mean the European banks defaulting on their own liability and a European bank defaulting on it’s own liabilities would be fraught with difficulties. Let’s face it, just seizing the property assets of Russian billionaires in London will be unlikely to happen due to any number of legalities, so seizing assets tied up in layers of obscure international finance is even more unlikely

I’m not a FX expert, but IIUC it can be done easily by executive order. The bank does not have any choice but to comply.
See what happened to Iranian foreign reserves.

 

[alanbeeb]

I'd like to believe in the Ghost of Kyiv but I suspect its made-up. But what matters is what people believe in.

Best chance is a revolution in Russia, but doesn't seem very likely to me. As far as

Anyone should be able to see from history that the only way Russia gets defeated is they have a revolution.

No. It's the other way around. Defeat or disaster in war leads to revolution.

1856 Crimean War - led to abolition of Serfdom in 1861
1905 Russo-Japanese War - failed revolution of 1905, paved the way for 1917.
1917 - military humiliation in WWI and incompetent leadership lead to February 1917 revolution, overthrow of Tsar, and Provisional Government
1917 (2) Failure of Provisional Government's summer offensive leads to October revolution by communists
1991 - Soviet Union collapses - defeat and withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 was a major factor

June 1941 was a nearly moment - Stalin went into a blind funk for several days when the Germans invaded, Soviet government was paralyzed and nearly collapsed, but somehow Molotov and others managed to steady the ship and coaxed Stalin back into providing leadership.

 

[Tony L]

Freeze his assets! We can only dream..

I certainly would. I view the UK Conservative Party as being just as rotten and corrupt as Putin’s cabal, Trump’s Republicans, much of the middle east etc. They are the exact same billionaire oligarchy/kleptocracy that is infesting the planet at present. Up to their necks in Russian, Saudi and other brutal dictatorships blood money and dodgy dealing (including selling arms used to murder or terrorise civilians). I have absolutely zero respect for them. None. The party is a fundamentally criminal endeavour masquerading under an illusion of “democracy”. Tory corruption has placed this country in a position it is unable to act with any dignity, credibility or integrity on the world stage.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Now is perhaps not the time, but we can hope that a forensic examination of the links between Tory party and MPs, and Russian oligarchs and funds, is not far away.

 

[poppop]

Linked from the BBC Website - Video apparently showing Ukrainian residents stopping advancing Russian tank(s) by walking at them.

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1497843820091871235

Brave. There's simply no other word for it.

Amazing.

BBC News - Germany committed to 2% GDP on Defence to strengthen NATO. Thats pretty amazing.

 

[farfromthesun]

Last I saw most of his reserves were in dollars and euros. I doubt he has 600 billion in crisp greenbacks waiting in a Moscow vault, and would bet a significant chunk at least could be frozen.

Indeed - this article expands upon that.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/

 

[brian2957]

This is a UK based organisation set up to help Ukranians who have had to flee their homes. They were on BBC breakfast yesterday morning.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/helpukraine

 

[kenniGT]

Amazing.

BBC News - Germany committed to 2% GDP on Defence to strengthen NATO. Thats pretty amazing.

Really? Other Nato countries do that for years already.

 

[PsB]

Contrast with the manner of the speech given by von der Leyen, fluently in three different languages.

Also, compare with the level of BoJo’s German and French, despite them both attending the same international school in Brussels.

 

[matthewr]

I’m not a FX expert, but IIUC it can be done easily by executive order. The bank does not have any choice but to comply.

You can freeze assets and stop people spending them, but you cannot seize them. Well of course the government can do anything but once you start undermining the rule of law in regard to your banking and finance systems, you basically screw yourself much worse than any sanctions ever could. Modern economies are all based on the belief that governments won't do this without a legal basis and even where they pass specific laws (e.g. unexplained wealth orders) it's harder than you might think without screwing everything else up.

 

[paulfromcamden]

Now is perhaps not the time, but we can hope that a forensic examination of the links between Tory party and MPs, and Russian oligarchs and funds, is not far away.

Perhaps time to publish the unredacted version of the Russia Report.

 

[Tony L]

Now is perhaps not the time, but we can hope that a forensic examination of the links between Tory party and MPs, and Russian oligarchs and funds, is not far away.

As ever you just end up with Tories appointing Tories to investigate Tories. They inevitably ring up £millions in costs to the tax payer and find nothing.

 

[poppop]

Really? Other Nato countries do that for years already.

The comment seems to be that for historical reasons Germany didnt? But with this commitment and the provision of weapons indicates a complete turn round?

 

[Ponty]

Amazing.

BBC News - Germany committed to 2% GDP on Defence to strengthen NATO. Thats pretty amazing.

UK was 2.2% in 2020. It was as high as 5.5% in 1984. I’d like to see it head back towards this figure. The world is too dangerous a place.

 

[PsB]

You can freeze assets and stop people spending them, but you cannot seize them. Well of course the government can do anything but once you start undermining the rule of law in regard to your banking and finance systems, you basically screw yourself much worse than any sanctions ever could. Modern economies are all based on the belief that governments won't do this without a legal basis and even where they pass specific laws (e.g. unexplained wealth orders) it's harder than you might think without screwing everything else up.

Freezing is all you need to do.

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

I

More broadly, RT has to be seen in the context of the U.K. media, very large parts of which would be considered beyond the pale in most places outside, say, Russia.

Apologies if this point has already been made, but I'm currently 'catching up' with this thread.

My point is that RT was *permitted* by OfCrap as a result of the rules they - under *Tory* control - chose to apply. Basically, this means pretty much anyone who can pay up for a channel on Freeview, etc, can broadcast into the UK using UK infrastructure.

The Tories allowed this in large part as part of their wish to undermine and weaken the BBC. Plus, of course, them being friends of those nice Russians who pay so much into the Tory party and some of its collaborative MPs, etc.

Once running RT was able to gradually, erm, 'steer' its content. As others have said, many MPs and others across the board appeared on it, but then some stopped as they saw where it was heading, and that it wasn't what they wanted. Curiously, OfCrap hasn't seemed to notice this and still allows RT.

Seems a shame that the distortions and falsehoods stuck onto people like Corbyn should now also pop up here given that real context and the way he was lied about and misprepresented by both the press and the right of the LP. So I'm adding this for balance and clarity.

 

[paulfromcamden]

Indeed - this article expands upon that.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/

Great article - thank you.

 

[Seeker_UK]

Really? Other Nato countries do that for years already.

Please look at Graph 2, Page 2 of this report from NATO:

https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2021/6/pdf/210611-pr-2021-094-en.pdf

You will see that most member states did not spend 2% of GDP on defence in 2021 - the median is closer to 1.6%.

ETA - and many who were spending > 2% are Baltic states next door to you-know-who.

If you look at Graph 3 on page 3, you'll see that all bar US, Greece and UK did not spend 2% in 2014, so things have improved (but only a bit) following annexation of the Crimea. Expect the graphs for 2022 to look a bit different.

 

[cooky1257]

Perhaps while Germany and the rest of NATO increase their defence spending they would all be better off spending more removing any dependence on Russian gas and oil.
It had also occurred to me that beneath all the soviet bluster was actually a rare earth materials grab ( Neon and Palladium)Russia facing as it does an inevitable decline in demand for fossil fuel revenue/ exports.

 

[Seeker_UK]

Perhaps while Germany and the rest of NATO increase their defence spending they would all be better off spending more removing any dependence on Russian gas and oil.

Yes - this is not just a military problem to solve. I would hope to see for every Euro spent on NATO, one Euro is spent on an European-wide approach to renewables. I suspect it won't happen.