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Stock Market 2022

The economy will have already started shutting itself down due to Inflation so they would barely need to touch interest rates for the consumer lead western society to stall...I assume they are worried as hell behind closed doors.

Yep, they are walking a very narrow path between inflation and deflation, high instability in the system thanks to all the years of easy money post GFC. And there's a looming energy crisis...
 
Yep, they are walking a very narrow path between inflation and deflation, high instability in the system thanks to all the years of easy money post GFC. And there's a looming energy crisis...

Yes, the green agenda is the icing on the cake in this potential mess. It just doesn't wash with the whole consumerism thing anyway
 
Yes, the green agenda is the icing on the cake in this potential mess. It just doesn't wash with the whole consumerism thing anyway

Xi is not so daft: "China’s ambitious low-carbon goals should not come at the expense of energy and food security or the “normal life” of ordinary people, president Xi Jinping said, signalling a more cautious approach to climate change as the economy slows."
 
Xi is not so daft: "China’s ambitious low-carbon goals should not come at the expense of energy and food security or the “normal life” of ordinary people, president Xi Jinping said, signalling a more cautious approach to climate change as the economy slows."

In the future, I don't think we'll ever see China at 7 or 8% annual growth ever again...be lucky to breach half that.
 
Though tax efficient planning is made more difficult by the LTA threshold regularly changing. From £1.8m in 2011/12 down to £1m five years later.

Unless we have a decade of astronomical returns it's not something I personally have to worry about ;-)

Personal-Lifetime-Allowance-Explained.jpeg
Yes reduction of LTA is another aspect of Tory stealth tax, and one would argue that anyone would be pretty lucky to be within shouting distance of it. The LTA is currently fixed but if it changes it only go up by a factor equal to, or more likely, less than CPI. Now the case about not being something something one would necessarily worry about...using the compound interest calculator website below to give a crude guideline: say if you are 55 an have accumulated say 350k in a SIPP in a Vanguard Global equity index tracker that averages 9%/y over a 10 year period (easily done), and you put in 8k a year at 40% tax rate (= 11k), then you will be heading for a total of 1.2m which could be close to the LTA at your normal retirement age (assuming future Chancellors restrict the rise of the LTA, like current, to pay down the deficit). Now as you get older you might find you can allocate more funds to your SIPP or ISA, so then you will need to exercise clarity how much you put into your SIPP rather than an ISA.

Compound Interest Calculator - Daily, Monthly, Yearly Compounding (thecalculatorsite.com)
 
until recently she was predicting 40% annualised growth over the next 5 years!

Some catching up to do.

Seriously, who believes these people?

I said 6 months ago on the 2021 thread that Cathie has picked some high risk plays and had got lucky. I was right....back then and so was she...until she wasn't

I also recall she was in the deflation camp....another good call LOL

Coinbase is in her Top 3 holdings. So there's a surprise she's talking up Crypto.
 
If the XBT pattern continues, it’s not out of the question to see a spike of $200 in 2025, $400k in 2029, and $800k in 2033. But this is a very big if, and Bitcoin is a very different beast to what it was a few years ago.
 
Define 'medium' term. She's been on about it for over a year...and has been about as accurate as the Fed on that front

medium term = 5 years

Think about the effects automation and AI are going to have regarding efficiency gains and the need to employ workers. there is only going to be one outcome IMO.
 
medium term = 5 years

Think about the effects automation and AI are going to have regarding efficiency gains and the need to employ workers. there is only going to be one outcome IMO.

On the other side: the rising cost of energy and food, labour shortages, de-globalization as China decouples from the US led system.

I have no idea where inflation will settle, but I do expect real interest rates are going to be negative for a decade or two due to the debt overhang.
 
On the other side: the rising cost of energy and food, labour shortages, de-globalization as China decouples from the US led system.

I have no idea where inflation will settle, but I do expect real interest rates are going to be negative for a decade or two due to the debt overhang.

Your first two points are short term issues in my view. I am talking 5 years plus here.
 


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