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Stock Market 2022

Surely EWI and SMT are in the 'buy' zone now...for long term holding?

Maybe, but i think the sector will be out of favour for a while now (as long as inflation is a concern) so they won’t go shooting up in value any time soon. Expect a year or two of the share prices languishing in the doldrums.

i have a feeling equity income funds will do quite well over the next couple of years, maybe look at investing there.
 
Maybe, but i think the sector will be out of favour for a while now (as long as inflation is a concern) so they won’t go shooting up in value any time soon. Expect a year or two of the share prices languishing in the doldrums.

i have a feeling equity income funds will do quite well over the next couple of years, maybe look at investing there.

Good heads up...thx
 
I'm down on SMC & Smithson. Fundsmith & Vanguard 60 down as well but still in profit. Wondering whether to sell the lot & bide my time . If Putin goes beyond sabre rattling & invades Ukraine then everything will probably take a tumble.
 
I'm down on SMC & Smithson. Fundsmith & Vanguard 60 down as well but still in profit. Wondering whether to sell the lot & bide my time . If Putin goes beyond sabre rattling & invades Ukraine then everything will probably take a tumble.

yes a potential (not so) black swan event that could cause huge disruption especially if he does something stupid like cutting western undersea communications cables as some kind of retaliation to the inevitable sanctions. Then there is the Chinese economic situation which is also a huge concern.

would be wise to keep plenty of money on the sidelines.
 
I'm down on SMC & Smithson. Fundsmith & Vanguard 60 down as well but still in profit. Wondering whether to sell the lot & bide my time . If Putin goes beyond sabre rattling & invades Ukraine then everything will probably take a tumble.

Peoples response to any future market shudder will be interesting. Will people sell off en masse like 'normal' anyway. Alot seem to now think that the market will get 'supported' no matter what after the interventions witnessed during Covid...same for housing....
 
War would trigger even worse shortages and price rise, so even more inflation to eat into cash.
Weapons stocks is a possibility
 
Yes, that was always going to be the outcome. I had so many telling me in 2020 that our small office properties were dead ducks. They're more in demand than ever with companies decentralising.

Just had the latest residential market update from Savills, who say the balance of demand is shifting back to more urban markets. A dramatic rebound in London sales and rents apparently. I’ve got a tenant moving out and the new rent is 20% higher (I must be nice as I never increase the rent during a tenancy). Demand is high and supply is short.

Meanwhile, other areas look like they’re in trouble.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-59995771
 
would be wise to keep plenty of money on the sidelines.

Got to keep it somewhere safe, and ISA/bond/Easy Acc's rates are still abysmal

so even more inflation to eat into cash.

If inflation actually causes the B0E to raise rates, that's a good thing for savers/ those 'with money on the sidelines'. Guess we'll have to wait 'til February, but the expectations of November were a damp squib, but can they really keep the cheap money going in the face of what looks like more than a transitory inflation hike?
 
... but can they really keep the cheap money going in the face of what looks like more than a transitory inflation hike?
Why not, those that steer major economies have been in denial since at least 2008 and even before that they chose to ignore warnings.

We're all doomed, I tells ya.
 
As long as wage increases are less than price rises, yes.

Goods and energy inflation is considered subservient to wage inflation by the MPC? I thought each was a separate measure given separate consideration. After all, the 3 part pension increase was changed to exclude wage inflation, which was looking to take off (+/- 6%?) last year, and Sept. CPI inflation was around 3.5%. Don't buy that one, though hands are obv. tied because things have gone too far, too fast, and that includes property, which would put a brake on int. rate hikes for fear of creating a downturn in that sector.
 
even more inflation to eat into cash.

That’s the challenge. Over any reasonable timeline, inflation feeds into company valuations and stock markets. Sitting on piles of cash in the medium to long term is a good way to effectively lose money. Absolutely hold enough cash so you’re not in a forced sale position if a downturn hits, but you shouldn’t really tie money up in the markets if you need to see it again in less than 5 years.

Nobody knows how deep the dips will be or how tall the highs. People talk of higher IR’s, I’d be amazed if they went north of 2%, still astonishingly cheap money. As Terry Smith said, when it comes to timing the markets, there are 2 types of people, those who can’t do it and those who know they can’t do it.
 
Goods and energy inflation is considered subservient to wage inflation by the MPC? I thought each was a separate measure given separate consideration. After all, the 3 part pension increase was changed to exclude wage inflation, which was looking to take off (+/- 6%?) last year, and Sept. CPI inflation was around 3.5%. Don't buy that one, though hands are obv. tied because things have gone too far, too fast, and that includes property, which would put a brake on int. rate hikes for fear of creating a downturn in that sector.

Don’t know about the MPC, but the main way inflation becomes a real concern is if we enter a wage/price spiral. The long term trend is likely still deflationary with low growth due to declining working population, debt and stagnant productivity.

Sitting on piles of cash in the medium to long term is a good way to effectively lose money.

I agree in general, but some years cash is the best returning asset class (i.e. lowest real losses!), especially when central banks are tightening e.g. 2018
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/historical-returns-by-asset-class/
 
Unilever - buying opportunity?
Very odd drop in price at the opening bell yesterday! I heard the GSK buyout news but TBH can’t fully understand the price move, let alone try to guess what might happen next. Suppose it will bounce a bit, but after that?

I was tempted to take some profits on GSK, but in theory you want to hold defensives in the kind of environment we are moving into.
 
Very odd drop in price at the opening bell yesterday! I heard the GSK buyout news but TBH can’t fully understand the price move, let alone try to guess what might happen next. Suppose it will bounce a bit, but after that?

I was tempted to take some profits on GSK, but in theory you want to hold defensives in the kind of environment we are moving into.

I topped up yesterday...trying to increase my proportion of (hopefully) non volatile dividend paying shares!!
 
Unilever - buying opportunity?

Topped up last week :( On the plus side I topped up more on GSK, but the Unilever drop so far outstrips the GSK gains. Fortunately I'm in both for the medium/long term, so just a blip along the way.
 


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