advertisement


Russia’s Ultimatum

Gulp….those missiles are scary. The West certainly took their eyes off Russia In the 90’s. It’s a shame we didn’t embrace them after communism fell, iirc they treated them with contempt and triumpalism. I despair of the lack of statesmanship available to the Western powers when they tackle the Gangsters and the Chinese. Our sticks are getting less effective as time goes on without an alternative approach to geopolitical issues.
 
Putin is very good at bluffing and excellent at propaganda, he cannot afford a war in conventional terms as he would lose and in a nuclear exchange everyone loses.
 
Not a happy article that. There's no doubt we are taking our eye off the ball, and it really did surprise me that Putin didn't invade Ukraine over the New Year. The question is, why didn't he? I think he blinked, so there has to be a reason which is not really covered in the text.
The interventions in Brexit and the US elections make much more sense now, when seen in this light.
I am always reminded of conversations with friends and colleagues in Poland. The behaviour of the Russians is quite normal to them, and they can't understand why we don't understand it.
 
The news that Biden had assured the Ukranians the US would 'react' in the face of a Russian invasion, was the last thing I read before turning off the computer last night. I felt like I'd gone back in a time machine.
 
........... It’s a shame we didn’t embrace them after communism fell, iirc they treated them with contempt and triumphalism. I despair of the lack of statesmanship.....

Yes, this.

Since the fall of the USSR the West has shown an almost total lack of understanding of, and regard for the Russian psyche, their world view, and strategic thinking. For them the "near abroad" and the former communist states of Central and Eastern Europe were seen as a strategic buffer against Western aggression, going back to the days of Napoleon and the the 1st and 2nd World Wars. To see these countries being courted by and becoming increasingly aligned with the West, joining the EU and becoming members of NATO must make them feel increasingly vulnerable. I'm sure given a bit more imagination after the fall of the USSR we in the West could have done more to ease those tensions, but we didn't, and so we are where we are now.
 
The west pretty much rolled out a red carpet for the arrival of Putin. After the USSR's collapse all they could think of was to pursue their highly ideological, Francis Fukuyama, model of 'democratisation'. Which meant, untrammelled market forces...in a country accustomed to 70 years of a strong welfare state. Obviously pain was the best medicine as we can see.

As per usual the authoritarians won out in the struggle to regain some order and self-respect. Yeltsin's role as a conduit and green flag for western plundering in Russia is not given enough attention. He also 'appointed' Putin; laughably as his "successor" in his new Russia alledgedly nepotism-free now they'd supposedly thrown-off the yoke of the Communist Party.
 
A really interesting read about the potential implications of the recent ultimates / threats coming out of Russia. Seeking to exploit the chaos in the US and their placemen and apologists in Eastern Europe, the UK and other countries. British democracy particularly is being undermined by money funnelled through the Tories.

Potentially scary times ahead.

https://en.desk-russie.eu/2021/12/30/what-does-the-russian-ultimatum.html
Very interesting piece and I’m curious about its provenance. The quoted text coming out of the “Russtrat think tank” reads like material for a draft speech by Goebbels and read at face value in conjunction with official Kremlin statements is alarming to put it mildly, yet you have to ask who’s pulling the strings and what the real intent is beneath the textual content.

Two things have concerned me in the past- that the expansion of NATO onto the borders of Russia is legitimately seen by Russia as a threat and that the role of the Trump presidency has been incredibly damaging to western security. Trump signalled to Putin that America would do little if anything to defend Europe from Russian aggression. If he is re-elected then I’m certain Putin will threaten Europe.
Quite how you neutralise the perceived threat for Putin of former Russian client states now being in NATO without him extending his hegemony over them is the challenge. Would he honour a non aggression/ non interference treaty in return for demilitarisation?
 
Russia has pulled off a few neat switches since it gained independence from the Soviet Union...

Russia gained independence from the USSR in 1991, like most* of the other ex-Soviet republics. When the USSR (led by Gorbachev) finally imploded after an attempted coup to remove Gorbachev failed, its constituent republics - Russia (led by Yeltsin), Ukraine (Kravchuk) and Belarus (Shuskevich) in the West, Kazakhstan and the other Stans in the South and East - all agreed to go their own way. The USSR became the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Gorby resigned, handing the nuclear codes to Yeltsin on the way out. This peaceful process is what Putin has described as "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century". Yeltsin went on to survive another attempted coup in 1993, Kravchuk lost an election to Kuchma, and Shuskevich to Lukashenko.

Second, Russia worked to seize the mantle of the Soviet Union and to ensure it remained the only nuclear power of this Commonwealth of independent states, a role others were mostly happy to see it take on in view of Russia's size and the constraints of keeping a nuclear deterrent safe: UN Security Council seat, the bulk of the armed forces, etc. Guarantees about territorial integrity were duly given to Ukraine in 1994, not only by Russia but also by the US and the UK. Putin set about consolidating this when he came to power in 2000.

Third, Russia has worked to get this equation Russia = Soviet Union accepted by the other constituent republics of the USSR (at least those with a majority Slavic language, Ukraine and Belarus, and those in the Caucasus). So after the wars in Chechnya, we've had war with Georgia, the seizure of Crimea, the occupation of the Donbass. The "independent republics" around Russia should have no doubt who's in charge: Russia is no longer first among equals, it is the overlord. In parallel, Russia has re-inserted itself into other theaters like the Middle East and Africa and continues to pull some strings in Central Asia.

Putin seems to be mostly bothered about political contagion from Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics. The new prosperity in Poland and the Baltics is troubling, and the ethnic, historical and cultural links with Ukraine are so tight that he doesn't want Ukraine to follow a similar path. He also needs an outside threat/enemy to distract attention from what's going on at home. So he must cut off Ukraine from any kind of rapprochement with the EU, not to mention NATO. Neutralizing countries like Poland, the Baltics, Hungary and Romania all help that.

So what we see now is Russia trying to get the former Comecon/Warsaw Pact countries, the ones that all voted with their feet as soon as they got half a chance in the late 80s and joined NATO in the late 90s, to accept the Russia = USSR equation, too. In effect, Russia is trying to turn the clock back to 1980, before the rot set in, when Russia/USSR had SS20s pointed at Germany and W. Europe and protested vociferously when NATO planned to introduce Pershing missiles in response. He wants the complete neutralization of the Eastern part of the European Union, also including Finland and Sweden to turn the Baltic into a Russian lake, and naturally the withdrawal of all US military components. But he certainly doesn't want to discuss this with the European neighbours: he will talk only with the US. This has all sorts of advantages: it insures some sort of symmetry that he sees as geographically advantageous (Russia is in Europe, the US isn't), it uses the window of opportunity created in the US by internal turmoil (post-Jan 6, post BLM, etc.) and its preoccupations with China, and it divides to conquer.

What on earth are the European nations going to do about this fine piece of revisionism?

*the Baltic Republics had already left between 1988 and 1990
 
Last edited:
I think this sentence is the most scary.

What Moscow fears in Ukraine is not a few NATO instructors, but freedom. It wants a disarmed Ukraine so that it can intimidate the Kiev rebels and set up a regime hated by its people, thus totally dependent on the Kremlin.

Exactly what is happening in Belarus too, and shows how it is possible to completely ignore 'democracy'. You only have to look at a map and see Kaliningrad as the next target being 'reconnected'
 
I think this sentence is the most scary.



Exactly what is happening in Belarus too, and shows how it is possible to completely ignore 'democracy'. You only have to look at a map and see Kaliningrad as the next target being 'reconnected'
Let’s not forget, a US President who publicly took the word of Putin over his own national security services and undermined NATO, went on to attempt to overthrow democracy a year ago.
 
People seem to be forgetting that we have the strategic genius that is Liz Truss to keep those pesky Russians in check. One stamp of her tiny foot and Putin will get back in his box.
 
We, and the EU etc etc, should be re-arming to possibly fight the USA! No doubt if the horror scenario happens though the UK will immediately JOIN the USA fascist dictatorship!!

Well, that's a scenario which I'd never have imagined. Now where did I put my rationality pills......... Innovation in design circuitry as applied to geopolitics. Gotta hand it to you Jez !:)
 
Well, that's a scenario which I'd never have imagined. Now where did I put my rationality pills......... Innovation in design circuitry as applied to geopolitics. Gotta hand it to you Jez !:)

I'm more concerned about USA under drumpf or an even worse replacement than about Russia or China. The Canadian professor in the linked article seems very concerned about it also. I hope I'm not saying "told you so" in a few years time.

The republicans are de facto now a fascist party...
 


advertisement


Back
Top