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Brexit: give me a positive effect... XV

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When a lot of that time was wasted by diversion it’s bullshit to say there was 5 years to prepare. There would have been 5 years if everyone had accepted the outcome of the referendum and govt + business had planned for it from there. We had 2 GE’s during that 5 years when we could have ended up with a different govt! It’s not even a controversial point, it’s so obvious.

What do you think business leaders meant when they were complaining about a lack of certainty over whether brexit would happen, whether it would be a hard brexit, a soft brexit or any other kind of brexit? In what way was there genuinely 5 full years to prepare properly?
You don’t understand the point. The time to plan was actually before the plebiscite; the time to brief business on the possible outcomes was right afterwards. Level with them, warn them of the worst, so that they could make contingency plans. That’s how we dealt with it over here. Fear of the known is much less paralysing than fear of the unknown.

So what if governments changed. The job of the civil service would still have been to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. Let’s say six months, or four years, had been spent with businesses to prepare for a no-deal Brexit, but miraculously government had changed, sense had prevailed, and the UK ended up in more of an EFTA-type Brexit-lite arrangement (what I personally believe would have best reflected the voter’s actual intentions, but that train departed a long time ago...). Having that happen would be a lot better outcome than what actually happened: five years of stonewall and diversion then a snap hard-Brexit that still hasn’t played out fully yet. In the grown-up world, you don’t help people by lying about bad news.

I feel the reason that business was not properly informed is because once the full impacts of the Tories’ intended track were visible, the shareholders of those companies who so generously supported the Conservative Party would be baying for the blood of whoever was making those payments. Of course, that wouldn’t work for those privately-held businesses like Dyson and JCB, but Whetherspoon is a public company, as are many other big donors.
 
You are talking to a barn door there.

Throughout the negotiations it has been reported many times that the UK team meeting their EU counterparts might have been very heavy but they arrive each time very light on preparation. But you could outline that till the cows come home but it can't be allowed to penetrate as it means he couldn't continue to use the straw man argument.
 
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Brian there is a saying “Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics” Brexit didn’t really have an objective, except a barely hidden one to allow the spivs to hide their money offshore which is why it is such a fvcking road crash, leave didn’t know what they were voting for and had even less of a clue what to do when it happened.
I am already aware of what you say and I agree.

What I’m not familiar with is the relevance of what you say to the mistaken notion there were 5 years to prepare properly for brexit.

You don’t understand the point. The time to plan was actually before the plebiscite; the time to brief business on the possible outcomes was right afterwards. Level with them, warn them of the worst, so that they could make contingency plans. That’s how we dealt with it over here. Fear of the known is much less paralysing than fear of the unknown.

So what if governments changed. The job of the civil service would still have been to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. Let’s say six months, or four years, had been spent with businesses to prepare for a no-deal Brexit, but miraculously government had changed, sense had prevailed, and the UK ended up in more of an EFTA-type Brexit-lite arrangement (what I personally believe would have best reflected the voter’s actual intentions, but that train departed a long time ago...). Having that happen would be a lot better outcome than what actually happened: five years of stonewall and diversion then a snap hard-Brexit that still hasn’t played out fully yet. In the grown-up world, you don’t help people by lying about bad news.

I feel the reason that business was not properly informed is because once the full impacts of the Tories’ intended track were visible, the shareholders of those companies who so generously supported the Conservative Party would be baying for the blood of whoever was making those payments. Of course, that wouldn’t work for those privately-held businesses like Dyson and JCB, but Whetherspoon is a public company, as are many other big donors.
No, you don’t understand the point.

Listen, I don’t like the tory govt, I don’t support their policies but some are so blinded they can’t see the wood for the trees and it’s impossible to have an objective discussion. I hate making any post where the usual suspects will shout ‘ tory supporter’, ‘alt-right’ etc but the points I made earlier are valid. It is important to remember that the leave campaign was not the UK govt, the UK govt stood for remain, why on earth should a remain UK govt start planning for brexit ahead of a referendum? Why would a remain UK govt start working immediately on preparing for a no-deal brexit when it didn’t want to leave at all? There was not a majority for leave in the UK govt until 2019. People keep banging on about 5 years, it is simply not correct. There has actually been very little time to prepare properly for such a massive change.

Anyway, as said earlier, I’m happy to agree to disagree and that’s it for me.

All the Best
 
You are talking to a barn door there.

Throughout the negotiations it has been reported many times that the UK team meeting their EU counterparts might have been very heavy they arrive each time very light on preparation. But you could outline that till the cows come home but it can't be allowed to penetrate as it means he couldn't continue to use the straw man argument.
Yawn. :rolleyes: Another post entirely about the poster, so ad-hom from you as usual.
 
You are talking to a barn door there.

Throughout the negotiations it has been reported many times that the UK team meeting their EU counterparts might have been very heavy they arrive each time very light on preparation. But you could outline that till the cows come home but it can't be allowed to penetrate as it means he couldn't continue to use the straw man argument.
Do you remember the entire year David Davis, grandly styled Chief Negotiator for Exiting the EU, spent going back and forth to Brussels without any documents? All he had in his briefcase was a ball of string and a packet of Werther’s Originals. How do you negotiate with that? It’s what’s going on here.


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Do you remember the entire year David Davis, grandly styled Chief Negotiator for Exiting the EU, spent going back and forth to Brussels without any documents? All he had in his briefcase was a ball of string and a packet of Werther’s Originals. How do you negotiate with that? It’s what’s going on here.


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:D Don't know where you find them but they are brillant. It is amazing how a supposed staunch Labour supporter can tacitly defend the Tory government and pretends to not understand the role and functions of government. His longest posts are often to defend the Tories. How you could try and argue that a civil service and government would sit on its hands for years doing nothing waiting for a final decision to be made before drawing up plans? o_O
 
The Tories have lost a seat they have held since 1832 to the only mainstream party that's Pro Eu... I know I'm clutching however, there you go.

One would hope the penny of tactical voting penetrates voters minds for the next election. Fingers crossed Boris leads the Tories into that battle
 
There has actually been very little time to prepare properly for such a massive change.
Again: A little over five years and six months passed from the date the Referendum Act was passed in 2015 to point where the first terms of the Withdrawal agreement took effect. (2026 days)

For Brexiter-friendly context, that’s the same timespan as from the Invasion of Poland on September 1. 1939 to well into the muster for the D-Day landings (to March 19th 1945, if you want precision). You think it’s perfectly okay that, in the time it took to plan and win a war, the UK government couldn’t put together a simple business-support and communications policy?

Your argument requires me to believe that the British are, to the last person, stupid and incompetent. Maybe you can believe that, but I can’t, and that’s why it’s a bullshit claim.

@tonerei - I’d like to see Labour put it out ahead of the next election that it is open to coalition with the Liberal Democrats... even as a junior partner; there are seats that Labour can never win from the Tories (like this one) that would flip to LibDem if Labour’s voters knew ahead of time that a LibDem MP would be in government with Labour. And I hope that the LibDem’s coalition price is the introduction of a proportional voting system.
 
Listen, I don’t like the tory govt, I don’t support their policies but some are so blinded they can’t see the wood for the trees and it’s impossible to have an objective discussion. I hate making any post where the usual suspects will shout ‘ tory supporter’, ‘alt-right’ etc but the points I made earlier are valid. It is important to remember that the leave campaign was not the UK govt, the UK govt stood for remain, why on earth should a remain UK govt start planning for brexit ahead of a referendum? Why would a remain UK govt start working immediately on preparing for a no-deal brexit when it didn’t want to leave at all? There was not a majority for leave in the UK govt until 2019. People keep banging on about 5 years, it is simply not correct. There has actually been very little time to prepare properly for such a massive change.

Anyway, as said earlier, I’m happy to agree to disagree and that’s it for me.

All the Best

There's such a thing as scenario planning, which should always include a 'worst case' outcome. Even if the pre-Boris Tory administration didn't want anything like a no-deal outcome, they ought to have given some thought to what the consequences would be if one emerged after negotiations. If they didn't, they can't argue that there wasn't time. It was an abdication of responsibility and/or gross negligence.
 
There's such a thing as scenario planning, which should always include a 'worst case' outcome. Even if the pre-Boris Tory administration didn't want anything like a no-deal outcome, they ought to have given some thought to what the consequences would be if one emerged after negotiations. If they didn't, they can't argue that there wasn't time. It was an abdication of responsibility and/or gross negligence.
More than that, the outcome of any such thinking about the consequences could have informed and driven the 'remain' campaign before the vote and, just possibly, steered enough people away from 'leave' based on some well-argued modelling of the range of possible outcome scenarios.
 
More than that, the outcome of any such thinking about the consequences could have informed and driven the 'remain' campaign before the vote and, just possibly, steered enough people away from 'leave' based on some well-argued modelling of the range of possible outcome scenarios.

'Project fear'?
 
According to a post on twitter if this swing was repeated in a GE the Tories would end up with 3 seats... which is nice

If you watched the vox pop a lot of those Tory voters will switch back to the Tories in an election. A bloody nose is easy to dish out when there is no consequence.
Ditto for Labour voters who will struggle to put the pen in the LD box in a general election.

Unless Labour and LD's wake up and smell the roses and realize the only way of dislodging the Tories under the current system is a coherent centrist manifesto for a campaign in England to maximize support under an FTP system they will forever play second fiddle to the Tories.

Leave the Tories and UKIP to join together in opposition. Allow the SNP and Welsh national party to win in Scotland and Wales. Then you will get hopefully positive change.
Coalition is the only way to have any chance of a hint of fairness and equability.
 
@tonerei - I’d like to see Labour put it out ahead of the next election that it is open to coalition with the Liberal Democrats... even as a junior partner; there are seats that Labour can never win from the Tories (like this one) that would flip to LibDem if Labour’s voters knew ahead of time that a LibDem MP would be in government with Labour. And I hope that the LibDem’s coalition price is the introduction of a proportional voting system.

Didn't Gordon Brown have that option when it was made available to him? Tell me again why he didn't go for it? Mind you, it would have saved us a lot of grief in the last decade.
 
Gordon Brown made his decision at the end of the longest period of continuous Labour government in British history, and the only Labour government to ever be re-elected at all, let alone twice. He foolishly thought he wouldn’t need anyone else to make it to a fourth term, when history should have told him otherwise.
 
The Broken Ovenready Deal (served undercooked for christmas 2 years ago) confirmed no customs union and still they haven’t got the capacity to manage the customs border with Europe their own lousy deal mandates. It’s going to be fun watching the enforcement start in a couple of weeks with shortages already the norm.
 
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