TheDecameron
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Coronavirus - the new strain XXI
- Thread starter gavreid
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Seanm
pfm Member
He’s not sure, he’s confident, and even there he’s out of step with his peers: consensus seems to be it really is too early to say how virulent the thing is - it’ll be a couple of weeks before hospitalisations show up, owing to the current age profile of the infected. Fingers crossed and all, and it seems no one expects it to fully escape immunity, but still.
As for the credibility of his criticisms of government, that they echo those of Kate Bingham is certainly in his favour. By all accounts she was a major factor in the success of the vaccine program.
mandryka
pfm Member
'We are quite sure of it' does not mean just that every single person is certain of it, but that we belong to a community which is bound together by science and education. Ludwig Wittgenstein, On Certainty, 298.
Basta!
Seanm
pfm Member
Ha! I was sure he said “confident” but that must just have been how my brain read “pretty sure”.
mandryka
pfm Member
You were sure he said confident and I was confident he said sure. Still, I enjoyed getting out the Wittgenstein, which I hadn't looked at since I was a first year undergraduate.
mandryka
pfm Member
I must say, what the Dutch have done seems to me really strong. Is it an overreaction? I just don't know -- but -- it looks very strong to me.
Well it's blindingly obvious to me, at any rate, that this Omicron variant is a game changer.
Sars-Cov-3 some scientists are saying and if that is indeed the case then we are right back to February 2020.
"A fellow scientist, a geneticist from Stanford University, speculated in the comments that the virus was so different to the original Wuhan strain, Sars-Cov-2, it could be labelled “Sars-Cov-3” – “essentially restarting the pandemic”."
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/omicron-variant-covid-inside-story-south-africa-1322562
Seanm
pfm Member
A small minority of scientists on both “sides” are doing this but AFAICS the consensus is that it’s baseless and dangerous speculation. Nobody knows. That quote in particular seems got up to scare people and there really ought to be a health warning on that kind of thing.
The reaction from governments to this variant has been pretty swift so that suggests there's someone happening quickly.
"The World Health Organisation, which took two months to designate Delta a variant of concern, decided B.1.1.529 needed the label just 72 hours after it was identified, giving it the Greek name Omicron."
gavreid
Pretty Words...
It would certainly make sense to treat it with caution until more is know in a couple of weeks time
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
To counter the doom and gloom:
It is being claimed that this variant does not cause severe symptoms in those affected. Some that are infected are asymptomatic (I believe has been reported this morning).
The head of JCVI is "optimistic" that the mutations are not in those areas which influence the effectiveness of vaccines.
Anyhoo. I think that we need to wait until the results are in before we leap on the "OMFG WE'RE ALL DOOMED" or "Meh" train.
It is being claimed that this variant does not cause severe symptoms in those affected. Some that are infected are asymptomatic (I believe has been reported this morning).
The head of JCVI is "optimistic" that the mutations are not in those areas which influence the effectiveness of vaccines.
Anyhoo. I think that we need to wait until the results are in before we leap on the "OMFG WE'RE ALL DOOMED" or "Meh" train.
mandryka
pfm Member
We're back to a place where we've been before on this forum: attitudes to risk. Nobody would disagree with what you've said in that post, the problem is to decide on the rationally best strategy in the face of temporary uncertainty -- just mouthing a bit of motherhood and apple pie like "It would certainly make sense to treat it with caution" doesn't help with that problem at all.
I just note in passing that the Dutch were recently planning on introducing a vaccine mandate despite having a high percentage of the vulnerable population vaccinated. So they have a track record of strong, IMO over, reaction in this crisis.
Seanm
pfm Member
Sure, there’s ample reason to be cautious, no reason at all to jump to conclusions one way or another: there simply isn’t enough information.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
I know you don't care about case numbers - as long as it isn't you getting ill! My wife's now into her 4th week of isolation and still testing positive, you should try it some time!
mandryka
pfm Member
That's just too bitchy.
Personally I'm not unduly concerned I think this is the way the pandemic will progress ie new variants going forward and changing the direction of things but I'm reasonably confident, as @gavreid has been saying, that there will be better and more effective vaccines produced in due course and we'll probably look back on this 'phase' of the pandemic and be amazed at how dodgy it was without proper protection.
"Jinal Bhiman, principal medical scientist at National Institute for Communicable Diseases of South Africa, said a key aspect of concern in South Africa, where there is a relatively low vaccination rate, is that those who have already been infected by the delta variant appear to be getting reinfected with the new variant.
Bhiman suggested the variant was potentially "evading other immunity responses from other variants," she said.
Still, she said that theory was based on early data, adding it was too soon to say what the variant's impact will be.
"I think the reason why WHO responded in the way they did is because of that reinfection vector, that this is the first vector with real immunity escape that might have real implications, but we don’t know the severity at this point, so this is being done out of abundance of caution," Bhiman said.
She also said the potential risk in South Africa, given its low immunization rates and limited public health resources to curb spread, is also of particular concern."
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/variants-omicron-develop-makes-variants-concern-rcna6798
Seanm
pfm Member
I’m sure you’re up on this but many people test positive for a month and some for many months - it doesn’t mean they’re contagious and doesn’t alter government advice (here or elsewhere). Mandryka’s not responsible for your wife catching the virus, or for the burden she seems to have taken upon herself, legitimate as that decision may be.
Tony L
Administrator
That’s exactly the information that I want firmly nailed down. Until it is, i.e. there is real evidence confirming either existing vaccine efficacy or negligible severe illness/fatality, then I’m certainly going to be playing it safe. I think I’ll largely be staying in for a few weeks…
gavreid
Pretty Words...
The GP's advice is clear, if lateral flow from the nose is still positive the person is probably infectious - the 10 days advice is greatly problematic. It's pcrs that remain positive for a while but then she's never been pcr positive! Legally she doesn't even need to isolate. There's a person behind every case.
canonman
pfm Member
Interesting......
https://twitter.com/KP24/status/1464927053728423937
Followed by:
https://twitter.com/raziiia/status/1464938582116900864
Cages being rattled
https://twitter.com/KP24/status/1464927053728423937
Followed by:
https://twitter.com/raziiia/status/1464938582116900864
Cages being rattled
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