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Coronavirus - the new strain XXI

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"As predicted, London's weekly rate has overtaken that of Yorks/Humber (flat/declining), and tomorrow it will pass the NW. Richmond-on-Thames is still streets ahead, but Wandsworth, which had the highest rate in the capital at time of the Euros has an eye-catching surge."

https://twitter.com/ArtyVapes/status/1464294585107103748

I reckon half of that London figure will be the kids at my partners' kids school ;) Seriously though in some classes only around half the pupils remain in attendance right now.
 
More from Gordon Brown

"What’s most galling is that this policy failure is not because we are short of vaccines or manufacturing contracts to secure them. The problem is not now in production (2 billion doses of vaccine are being manufactured every month), but in the unfairness of distribution. The stranglehold exercised by the G20 richest countries is such that they have monopolised 89% of vaccines, and even now, 71% of future deliveries are scheduled for them. As a result, the global vaccine distribution agency, Covax, has been able to secure only two-thirds of the 2bn vaccines promised to poorer countries."

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ovid-variant-rich-countries-hoarding-vaccines
 
More from Gordon Brown

"What’s most galling is that this policy failure is not because we are short of vaccines or manufacturing contracts to secure them. The problem is not now in production (2 billion doses of vaccine are being manufactured every month), but in the unfairness of distribution. The stranglehold exercised by the G20 richest countries is such that they have monopolised 89% of vaccines, and even now, 71% of future deliveries are scheduled for them. As a result, the global vaccine distribution agency, Covax, has been able to secure only two-thirds of the 2bn vaccines promised to poorer countries."

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ovid-variant-rich-countries-hoarding-vaccines
The only reason I can think of for rich countries monopolise existing and scheduled vaccines is boosters, children, and more boosters.
 
The only reason I can think of for rich countries monopolise existing and scheduled vaccines is boosters, children, and more boosters.

We know the answer - they're hoarding. Brown explains

"As of today, 500m unused vaccines are available across the G7. By December, the figure will rise to 600m, and by February, it will be 850m vaccines, which can be sent to the countries in greatest need. At the last count, the US has 162m vaccine doses it could immediately deliver to the rest of the world, a figure that grows to 250m next month; Europe currently has even more: 250m, which by February could exceed 350m. The UK has 33m vaccines – expected to rise to 46m over the next three months."
 
We know the answer - they're hoarding. Brown explains

"As of today, 500m unused vaccines are available across the G7. By December, the figure will rise to 600m, and by February, it will be 850m vaccines, which can be sent to the countries in greatest need. At the last count, the US has 162m vaccine doses it could immediately deliver to the rest of the world, a figure that grows to 250m next month; Europe currently has even more: 250m, which by February could exceed 350m. The UK has 33m vaccines – expected to rise to 46m over the next three months."
Yes of course! Hoarding is just the word we give to this kind of behaviour. But I’d like to know why they’re hoarding unless it’s as a hedge against boosting more and more of their populations, boosting more than once, and vaccinating all children.
 
Omicron variant found in Germany (Guardian).

PS Anyone any idea how long it will be until we know for sure whether this strain has jumped the vaccine or not and/or what the Pfizer vaccine efficacy is? Trying to figure out whether to go back into full-lockdown or not!
 
With 2bn doses being produced per month everyone in the world could have a jab every 4 months!
I guess world leaders are acting entirely irrationally then and this has nothing at all to do with boosters. They just love hoarding and then destroying vaccines for no reason.
 
Some interesting and informed speculation on the variant here:

https://twitter.com/moritzgerstung/status/1464287402038640647?s=21

Idea is that most variants have emerged from chronic infections in immune compromised individuals (which I think people have been suggesting for a while) but makes connection to the AIDS catastrophe in Southern Africa and the lack of access there to antiretroviral therapies there.

International health inequality has deep roots but nobody’s going to be safe until it’s reckoned with.
 
I guess world leaders are acting entirely irrationally then and this has nothing at all to do with boosters. They just love hoarding and then destroying vaccines for no reason.

It will also be supply chains, logistics etc. Manufacturing, storing and delivering highly temperature-sensitive frozen-stored vaccines to rural Africa is likely not anything like as simple as many may think. I’m not saying it is impossible, but it likely starts with Pfizer etc opening manufacturing plants there and a whole other load of local logistical stuff, which is largely between them and the African governments. I hope we see movement here, but correlating consumption in the west to supply in Africa is to fundamentally misunderstand the problem IMO. It is likely way, way more complex than that.
 
It will also be supply chains, logistics etc. Manufacturing, storing and delivering highly temperature-sensitive frozen-stored vaccines to rural Africa is likely not anything like as simple as many may think. I’m not saying it is impossible, but it likely starts with Pfizer etc opening manufacturing plants there and a whole other load of local logistical stuff, which is largely between them and the African governments. I hope we see movement here, but correlating consumption in the west to supply in Africa is to fundamentally misunderstand the problem IMO. It is likely way, way more complex than that.
I’m not sure I’d accuse others of fundamentally misunderstanding a problem without a very firm footing myself. Gordon’s no fool and he thinks that rich countries hoarding vaccines is a problem for other countries. So does the WHO. So do many people working in the ground in various places who are struggling to access supply (such as Botswana, apparently: much being made of SA’s problem being “demand”, hearing less about Botswana). Of course it’s complicated but inadequate or inconsistent supply due to rich countries hoarding is not only a problem in itself, it impacts on many of the other problems. Sorry but nothing short of a well-reasoned, evidenced argument is going to convince me that there isn’t a significant correlation between consumption in rich countries and supply in poor countries. “It’s complicated” doesn’t cut it in this instance.
 
I’m not sure I’d accuse others of fundamentally misunderstanding a problem without a very firm footing myself. Gordon’s no fool and he thinks that rich countries hoarding vaccines is a problem for other countries. So does the WHO. So do many people working in the ground in various places who are struggling to access supply (such as Botswana, apparently: much being made of SA’s problem being “demand”, hearing less about Botswana). Of course it’s complicated but inadequate or inconsistent supply due to rich countries hoarding is not only a problem in itself, it impacts on many of the other problems. Sorry but nothing short of a well-reasoned, evidenced argument is going to convince me that there isn’t a significant correlation between consumption in rich countries and supply in poor countries. “It’s complicated” doesn’t cut it in this instance.

I've got a lot of sympathy for what you're saying here Sean. In philosophy we used to call it an "onus of proof" argument. Everything that Tony has said is totally possible and he's right to say it, but the enormous absurdity of this:

With 2bn doses being produced per month everyone in the world could have a jab every 4 months!

means, I suggest, that the onus of proof is very much on his side to demonstrate, with a bit of detail, that the complexities of

supply chains, logistics etc. Manufacturing, storing and delivering highly temperature-sensitive frozen-stored vaccines to rural Africa.

etc are in fact a real hurdle to a more ethically acceptable distribution of resources.

It's not a knock down argument. It could be that those things really are insurmountable problems. But, you know, I'll believe it when it's demonstrated . . .
 
I made the point yesterday that SA isn't short of vaccines but it lacks the infrastructure to get them into arms - and that's the richest African nation.

That's certainly the beginning of an argument. I somehow got the impression that the main problem there was demand, but I really haven't been following this with any sort of attention so that could be horseshit.
 
I’m not sure I’d accuse others of fundamentally misunderstanding a problem without a very firm footing myself.

I was a consultant/contract IT manager in one of Pfizer’s main UK distribution hubs for well over a year. Admittedly it is a very long time ago now (late ‘90s), but I do have a vague grasp of medical supply logistics, supply chains etc! I also understand a bit about Pfizer.
 
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