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Coronavirus - the new strain XXI

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One reason not to pin hopes on closing the border to Africa.

Reading some of this stuff regarding this NU variant it seems like there's a certain inevitability of this as though they've been waiting on a new phase of the pandemic and it's here now, the only worry is will it be ramped up to another level by this variant and will we look back on the past 18months as benign and a walk in the park as to what's to to come?
 
Reading some of this stuff regarding this NU variant it seems like there's a certain inevitability of this as though they've been waiting on a new phase of the pandemic and it's here now, the only worry is will it be ramped up to another level by this variant and will we look back on the past 18months as benign and a walk in the park as to what's to to come?

That's quite right TT, no variant has been dominant for more than a few months so far, this will be a rollercoaster and it will take some years to play out
 
Rich countries could have prevented new Covid variant
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-have-prevented-new-covid-variant-say-experts

'Adam Finn, a professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol and a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), warned that the approach of vaccinating and revaccinating increasingly low-risk people in wealthy countries would “rebound on rich countries”, noting they would end up with more deaths and more economic damage as a direct consequence.

“There isn’t any need for altruism here, just hard-nosed self interest – but somehow the politicians continue to fail to grasp this and those of us advising them are told very clearly that anything outside our borders is outside our remit,” he told the Guardian.'

From my POV the most disappointing failure has been the failure to produce sufficient quantity of vaccine and syringes, and to open up vaccine production facilities around the world.

we should not be in a position of weighing boosters vs exports - there should be plenty of vaccine fir all purposes.

once the first few vaccines showed high efficacy there should have been a war like effort to expand production around the world. It should not have been left to the CEOs of pharma companies to decide who lives and who dies.
 
That's quite right TT, no variant has been dominant for more than a few months so far, this will be a rollercoaster and it will take some years to play out

Yep every major variant so far has been more dangerous than the previous one, Alpha was bad, Kent was deadly and Delta ten time worse than Kent so it's logical to assume this next variant, if it becomes the dominant strain, will take us into unknown territory.

Just yesterday I was reading the UK was one of the countries getting on top in the pandemic, if 50,000 deaths a year is getting on top of it God only knows what it must be like for people living in countries which are at the bottom of the curve.
 
Where have cases been detected so far?
The WHO says so far fewer than 100 sample sequences have been reported. Cases have mainly been confirmed in South Africa, but have also been detected in Hong Kong, Israel, Botswana and Belgium.

UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid said on Friday that the variant is "highly likely" to have spread to other countries.

Most of the cases in South Africa have been from its most populated province, Gauteng, of which Johannesburg is the capital city.

Only about 24% of South Africa's population is fully vaccinated, which could spur a rapid spread of cases there, Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (Spi-M), told the BBC on Friday.

In Hong Kong, the infections were found in a person who had arrived from South Africa, and a guest in the same quarantine hotel who tested positive a few days later, the Department of Health revealed. Both were fully vaccinated.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59427770
 
Reading some of this stuff regarding this NU variant it seems like there's a certain inevitability of this as though they've been waiting on a new phase of the pandemic and it's here now, the only worry is will it be ramped up to another level by this variant and will we look back on the past 18months as benign and a walk in the park as to what's to to come?

Isn’t immunity cumulative - that’s to say, that the immunity we’ve built up so far is likely to give us all partial protection against a new mutant? So if that’s right, it would be very bad luck indeed if nu or subsequent dominant variants needed the sort of drastic measures we had to have in 2020/2021.
 
Isn’t immunity cumulative - that’s to say, that the immunity we’ve built up so far is likely to give us all partial protection against a new mutant? So if that’s right, it would be very bad luck indeed if nu or subsequent dominant variants needed the sort of drastic measures we had to have in 2020/2021.

Well reading some of the articles today regarding this NU variant that was the expectation in South Africa ie the local population had some immunity because of previous variants but this NU variant appears to be running riot in four South African provinces which includes the city of Johannesburg
 
Of course it won't but it will buy time - these things have been understood since bubonic plague was a factor in neighboring ports 500 years ago (and no doubt earlier).
We've also understood about the value of posies in warding off disease since the bubonic plague.

It's misleading to present all this as if it were common sense, consensual, and universally applicable. The value of border controls and quarantine is contested by epidemiologists and has waxed and waned in the history of disease control: remember that at the start of the pandemic WHO advised *against* using travel restrictions to control the spread of the virus. It wasn't because they're idiots who haven't heard of the plague.

Let's acknowledge that it's complicated and involves trade-offs. "Calm and sensible voices" and all that.
 
Well reading some of the articles today regarding this NU variant that was the expectation in South Africa ie the local population had some immunity because of previous variants but this NU variant appears to be running riot in four Sort African provinces which includes the city of Johannesburg

Do you know if there are significantly more symptomatic cases there?
 
Well reading some of the articles today regarding this NU variant that was the expectation in South Africa ie the local population had some immunity because of previous variants but this NU variant appears to be running riot in four Sort African provinces which includes the city of Johannesburg

It's important to remember that they're actively looking for it and have diverted resources to do that - the local population appeared to be relatively immune to Delta so it's also climbing from a very low level. The innate protection there will be from previous infections, rather than vaccination, which is 'known' to be much weaker.
 
Do you know if there are significantly more symptomatic cases there?

No idea just reading articles as they appear, it's obviously early days but this does appear to be a new phase judging by the reaction of governments around the world.

Isreal are talking about emergency measures already.

"Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday it is "on the verge of a state of emergency" regarding the new variant, and that he would "act fast, strong and now".

One case was detected in a person who returned from Malawi, according to Israeli media reports quoting the country's health ministry. Another two suspected infections were yet to be confirmed with test results. All three are said to have been fully vaccinated."
 
It's a rapidly evolving situation (no pun intended), but with an R of ~2 the nu variant is more contagious than other variants. What's yet to be seen is whether the nu variant is adept at dodging infection-blocking antibodies whether you got them because of vaccination or previous infection, and whether nu causes more severe COVID.

Joe
 
4. Shares nosedive as variant discovery rattles investors

Stock markets across the world have fallen sharply after the discovery of the new variant raised fears over the global economic recovery. US stock markets opened lower after big drops in Europe, with London's FTSE 100 share index down 3.65% and similar falls seen in Germany and France. Shares in airlines and travel firms were among the hardest hit, with British Airways owner IAG leading the fallers as its share price tumbled by nearly 14.5% to £131.96. One investment analyst has told the BBC: "Fear has gripped the financial markets with the travel industry flying into another violent storm."
 
Things must be really bad:D

5. Motsi Mabuse to miss Strictly Come Dancing after Covid contact

Strictly Come Dancing judge Motsi Mabuse is set to miss Saturday's show after coming into close contact with a person who tested positive for Covid-19. In an Instagram post, she explained she was fully vaccinated, which would normally mean exemption from isolation. However, Mabuse is currently in Germany and not able to travel back because of UK Government guidelines, which do not recognise the vaccines she received. Singer and actress Cynthia Erivo will take her place on the show's panel.
 
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What with the f*****t we have in charge of the country......................

Regards

Richard
 
It's a rapidly evolving situation (no pun intended), but with an R of ~2 the nu variant is more contagious than other variants. What's yet to be seen is whether the nu variant is adept at dodging infection-blocking antibodies whether you got them because of vaccination or previous infection, and whether nu causes more severe COVID.

Joe

R of 2 in the wild in the locality, the R0 might be ...
 
Gav,

Aye, but I'm more concerned that the many mutations will allow the nu variant to evade antibodies. That virus is a crafty little bastard, and it picked the perfect time to appear — lots of people heading in doors again (well, in the North) as the holidays are upon us.

If I could swear openly on the forum, I'd be tempted to say **** me!

Joe
 
Gav,

Aye, but I'm more concerned that the many mutations will allow the nu variant to evade antibodies. That virus is a crafty little bastard, and it picked the perfect time to appear — lots of people heading in doors again (well, in the North) as the holidays are upon us.

If I could swear openly on the forum, I'd be tempted to say **** me!

Joe

I know! Of course it's summer about to start in Africa but it doesn't seem to differentiate.
 
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