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Coronavirus - the new strain XXI

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Was talking to the site manager of the school next door to us last week, he said they had nine staff off positive.
 
My son went to a private cinema screening last Friday (birthday party), one of the kids just tested positive - multiply by x amount of kids etc, etc.

We've been ill all week.

Lockdown coming.
 
lordsummit said:
I have had the mother and father of all colds though. My herd immunity to those seems to have gone for a burton.
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I’ve heard reports of that, something very nasty going around Liverpool according to friends. Bad enough they’d suspected covid, but it doesn’t test as such, so a cold, flu or something. I guess flu immunity will be down noticeably too. I’ve had my flu jab this year, but didn’t get one last year as I was in isolation so didn’t think I needed it/didn’t feel safe going to get it.
 
IanW said:
As has been discussed on here on many occasions, there is no one silver bullet. We need to be doing many things to reduce the damage that Covid is doing to the UK population.

I would still argue that installing proper ventilation (meets the standard of keeping CO2 at 800 ppm or less or an equivalent number of air in room changes per hour e.g. through open windows, forced ventilation, filters in rooms, mechanical heat recovery ventilation) in schools, government buildings and workplaces where practical, is an important part of this. SAGE and iSAGE have access to the research and so could and should be making clear recommendations as to what is required.

SAGE and iSAGE could do likewise with modelling testing requirements and effect of sick pay (some human behaviour modelling required) on reducing the damage that the virus is doing.
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Sure, I’m not saying it’s one thing or the other and I appreciate that no one here is either (I’m not really talking about discussion here but broader debate). But not everything gets the same attention and when the least effective proposals are getting the most attention it’s a problem. At the moment “Plan B” I.e the only alternative to the current set-up allowed on the table for serious consideration seems to consist of mask mandate, vaccine passports and extended WFH and really, what’s that going to do, on its own?

It would be great to see some serious modelling of the effects of ventilated workplaces, better sick pay and other supportive measures and it’s interesting to ask why it’s not being done (or widely shared, if it is). Maybe there are technical obstacles but I suspect a major hurdle is political: it’s not going happen until these things look like serious political possibilities and various factors rule that out: the fundamental interests of the current government, the timidity of the opposition, the very limited political imagination of prominent critical voices, and the media’s preference for divisive, symbolic issues. It suits all of these people to talk about masks to the exclusion of more effective measures.
 
Tony L said:
I’ve heard reports of that, something very nasty going around Liverpool according to friends. Bad enough they’d suspected covid, but it doesn’t test as such, so a cold, flu or something. I guess flu immunity will be down noticeably too. I’ve had my flu jab this year, but didn’t get one last year as I was in isolation so didn’t think I needed it/didn’t feel safe going to get it.
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There's very little flu circulating at the moment, thankfully. It's reported weekly alongside covid in the national surveillance reports.
 
Seanm said:
Sure, I’m not saying it’s one thing or the other and I appreciate that no one here is either (I’m not really talking about discussion here but broader debate). But not everything gets the same attention and when the least effective proposals are getting the most attention it’s a problem. At the moment “Plan B” I.e the only alternative to the current set-up allowed on the table for serious consideration seems to consist of mask mandate, vaccine passports and extended WFH and really, what’s that going to do, on its own?
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Plan B should have been in operation some time ago, maybe it would have been enough to bring R below 1, but I would agree that it is difficult to see it having a large effect. I would hope by now that they have been able to derive better statistical models and so could make better predictions for the effectiveness of plan B, now that Delta has been around for some time.

It would be great to see some serious modelling of the effects of ventilated workplaces, better sick pay and other supportive measures and it’s interesting to ask why it’s not being done (or widely shared, if it is). Maybe there are technical obstacles but I suspect a major hurdle is political: it’s not going happen until these things look like serious political possibilities and various factors rule that out: the fundamental interests of the current government, the timidity of the opposition, the very limited political imagination of prominent critical voices, and the media’s preference for divisive, symbolic issues. It suits all of these people to talk about masks to the exclusion of more effective measures.
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It may be that a proxy method through the use of CO2 ppm would have to be used for ventilation modelling.

As to your wider point, I think that it is a bit chicken and egg. For example, there are no recommendations for ventilation and hence there is no priority to really ventilate buildings better and so we can focus on cleaning surfaces instead. There are no recommendations for sick pay from any opposition party, that I am aware of, or any other source based on any modelling etc, and so that can be ignored.

Whereas if there were clear recommendations with costs (deaths, cases, delayed operations etc) for not implementing them, then the case would be clearer, perhaps even to Boris et al.
 
The whole scenario is just depressingly familiar, I think I'll just go straight to Plan B+ and only come outside for my 'flu jab (10th Nov!) and the booster (whenever)
 
mentalp said:
Was talking to the site manager of the school next door to us last week, he said they had nine staff off positive.
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i was speaking to a teacher, a customer of mine, last Saturday and she said Coronavirus is rife in the school she said kids are not supposed to come to school if they have covid but they do but that the first cough and they’re sent home or to the nurse/medical room.

she didn’t really mention staff being off though
 
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gavreid said:
Here's more on the new variant of Delta

"According to the Financial Times, Dr Jeffrey Barrett, the director of the Covid-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Cambridge, and Prof Francois Balloux, the director of the University College London Genetics Institute, have suggested AY.4.2 could be 10-15% more transmissible than the original Delta variant."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-england-over-rise-of-new-covid-delta-variant
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And according to ZOE today 10% of new cases in England are AY 4.2
 
Tony L said:
They have some effect, but only if there is mass uptake or enforcement. A key thing is 98% of masks you see people wearing only have the ability to stop physical droplets, e.g. sneezes etc. They do not protect the wearer at all, you wear them to protect others (to some degree). Now mask wearing isn’t mandatory the only reason to wear one is to protect yourself, and that means a fresh FFP2 or FFP3-grade. That’s where I am now. I wear an FFP2 mask on the tram/train and even then don’t consider myself especially safe as 85%+ of the population do not seem to under the risk factors or who else their behaviour impacts. As ever poor political messaging kills people.



Sick pay? WTF is that?!
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Do you wear goggles too as research has shown the eyes are an effective means of entry to the body for the virus?
 
gavreid said:
"Progress in clearing the NHS cancer treatment backlog in England has gone into reverse amid high Covid cases and staff shortages..."

https://www.theguardian.com/society...-perfect-storm-as-covid-piles-pressure-on-nhs
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That’s what ISage should be focussing on IMO. The high incidence tends to mainly lead to covid emergencies in the unvaccinated - they’ve been given the chance to protect themselves, their choice not to take it. The kids - well, long covid is complicated. But the impact on cancer cases - that’s easy to understand and emotional - and the victims do not have themselves to blame.
 
mandryka said:
That’s what ISage should be focussing on IMO. The high incidence tends to mainly lead to covid emergencies in the unvaccinated - they’ve been given the chance to protect themselves, their choice not to take it. The kids - well, long covid is complicated. But the impact on cancer cases - that’s easy to understand and emotional - and the victims do not have themselves to blame.
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It's a sorry by product though - and no doubt the same can be said of many other parts of the NHS. However, the pandemic is being driven by under 18s and until the Government gets a grip on schools it's clearly the right area for the principal focus. I'm sure they will cover pressures on the NHS but you can't do that every week or people will call it crying wolf.
 
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