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Coronavirus - the new strain XXI

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If admissions peak next week or the week after, no-one can say. But from the pink line we have an informed conjecture about the shape of things to come, not just wishful thinking.

Ask the guys at ISage about it, I'd like to know what a real epidemiologist has to say. Is the pink line one of the reasons they decided to focus on kids and long covid?

Whatever they did back then re modelling /assumptions they will have a much better understanding today...

45 140 cases today up 31% on last Sunday and 57 deaths, 50% higher than last Sunday.
 
Whatever they did back then re modelling /assumptions they will have a much better understanding today...


Better understanding of what? I wish one of those epidemiologists would come here and say why the case rate is 10x higher here than in France. I mean, yes, face rags and vaccine passports must make a difference. But 10x? If true, that is a really interesting.
 
I think underlying factors such as obesity which is 30% higher in the UK than France is a factor and there will be other factors as well with regards underlying health/diet and likely poverty.
 
I think underlying factors such as obesity which is 30% higher in the UK than France is a factor and there will be other factors as well with regards underlying health/diet and likely poverty.

I don’t see how it can be that because (I think, someone else can check, I’m too busy right now) the thing I’m not getting is not the logic behind the number of admissions or number of deaths, it’s the number of cases. And as far as I know being very fat doesn’t make you more susceptible to coming down with covid, it makes you more susceptible to getting badly sick with it.

I think the ratio of cases to admissions and admissions to deaths is broadly the same in UK as in, for example, France.

However on reflection I think it’s probably just me, and a real epidemiologist would have the answer - I say that because the July models of the impact of stage 4 all explored many much more serious outcomes than we’re in fact seeing! I should look at those papers more carefully maybe. The way things have turned out have exceeded people’s expectations really, much better than expected. I clearly don’t understand the effect of NPIs - probably no one did and you have to look at real data like we now have from the UK and Europe get a handle on it.
 
don’t see how it can be that because (I think, someone else can check, I’m too busy right now) the thing I’m not getting is not the logic behind the number of admissions or number of deaths, it’s the number of cases. And as far as I know being very fat doesn’t make you more susceptible to coming down with covid, it makes you more susceptible to getting badly sick with it.

yes your right, at a very superficial level we do more than double the number of tests compared to France so I think if you test more you find more, simples.
 
I don’t see how it can be that because (I think, someone else can check, I’m too busy right now) the thing I’m not getting is not the logic behind the number of admissions or number of deaths, it’s the number of cases. And as far as I know being very fat doesn’t make you more susceptible to coming down with covid, it makes you more susceptible to getting badly sick with it.

I think the ratio of cases to admissions and admissions to deaths is broadly the same in UK as in, for example, France.

However on reflection I think it’s probably just me, and a real epidemiologist would have the answer - I say that because the July models of the impact of stage 4 all explored many much more serious outcomes than we’re in fact seeing! I should look at those papers more carefully maybe. The way things have turned out have exceeded people’s expectations really, much better than expected. I clearly don’t understand the effect of NPIs - probably no one did and you have to look at real data like we now have from the UK and Europe get a handle on it.
We may have a higher level of deaths due population health (obesity) and an apparent higher level of cases due to differences in the amount of testing.
 
Yes but the issue isn’t deaths, it’s cases. I mean, how many people have it, not how many people test positive.

And I attempt to think through the testing question in the post above.
It is also the ratio of reported cases to deaths. That is of interest, ie does this point to a national difference or just a testing procedural difference? Too many variables and I’ve no idea how the testing matches up between countries.
 
yes your right, at a very superficial level we do more than double the number of tests compared to France so I think if you test more you find more, simples.

France reports 4K positive test results a day say. If they’re did twice the number of tests, i.e. the same number as we do, then assume they’d have 2x4K = 8K positives.

We have 120K a day people with new covid according to ONS. So that’s 3

We get 40K tests a day. So that’s 5 times more than we would expect to get with the same testing regime on the French population.

According to ONS we have 120K people with new covid every day. That’s 3x the number of positive tests. So I conclude that France probably had 3 x 8K = 24K new covid cases a day.

And if that’s right it means that the effect of masks and passports is to reduce prevalence by 80%.

If true it’s astonishing, and even more astonishing that BJ doesn’t act on it! He is clearly being controlled by some groups in his party - he wanted to introduce passports in July but they stopped him if I remember correctly. They all just want to follow the pink line in the Imperial model, and they seem pretty content with the way things are going.


It is also the ratio of reported cases to deaths. That is of interest, ie does this point to a national difference or just a testing procedural difference? Too many variables and I’ve no idea how the testing matches up between countries.

Yes. I deleted the post you replied to because I wanted to check the logic of “the post above” - but I’m happy with it now so reposted - above.

(Terrible that this is all in writing - like submitting to a peer reviewed journal, not.)
 
Anyone who'd recently spent time in both countries wouldn't be in the slightest bit mystified.

I have, I just find 80% astonishing - because we have 65% vaccinated (I think) and much more in the age groups that go to pubs and restaurants. So how can the passports be making such a difference?!!!!!

But it’s true that in London today it’s like covid never happened and was no longer happening. I actually got off a crowded tube today after one stop, because absolutely no one was wearing a mask and it was choc a block, people eating and stuff. I felt stupid when I did it, I mean, I have to have a life! The next one was slightly better so I braved the journey. Waterloo tube station was full. Oxford Street and Marylebone High Street seemed like they used to be in 2019 - rammed with shoppers etc.
 
I have, I just find 80% astonishing.
I just don't get all this banging on about France are testing less so they're obviously reporting less positives.
Are we saying that positives who aren't tested don't get ill and don't end up as admissions in hospital?
 
I just don't get all this banging on about France are testing less so they're obviously reporting less positives.

Nobody is saying that are they? I’m certainly not saying that. It’s a complete red herring as you suggest.

I’ve tried to “argue” that in France there are possibly 24K new cases a day - quite probably bad logic, but I await to be shown why! As far as I know the real figure isn’t published - the prevalence in France isn’t in the public domain. Or have I overlooked it?
 
You mean on a daily basis?

The total number of infections at a given time, whatever that might be. I'm assuming of course that the criteria for hospital admission and the duration of stays will be similar too - maybe that's a step too far, I really don't know, but I don't suppose it'll be more than a factor of 2 or so out of step.
 
maybe that's a step too far,
I think it probably is.
The reason I say that is because hospital numbers are now at their lowest level in France for the last 12 months at around 6.5k.
I seem to remember hospital numbers in the UK during the summer went down to a few hundred for quite a while and I can't remember them ever getting anywhere near France's peak of 33k last winter.
Edit: UK numbers infact peaked well above the 33k in France but I got the bit about the very low numbers in summer right.;)
 
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