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Coronavirus - the new strain XXI

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Good Evening All,

I have travelled to both the Netherlands and Norway in the last 4 weeks. Life is being conducted, broadly, as normal in these countries yet they don't have the issues we seem to be having in the UK. I don't believe there is any great difference in levels of vaccination between the three countries.

The 7 day death rate in Scotland, along with the number of cases is on the way back up again............

I find it all terribly depressing and am powerless to do anything substantive about it.

Regards

Richard
 
Interesting article on how things seem to have improved dramatically in Japan.

It doesn't identify any one reason for the drop in cases but does mention their vaccine rollout and the widespread use of masks (and presumably other social distancing measures?)

On Monday, Tokyo reported 49 cases, the lowest daily figure since late June last year, while the nationwide count was 369...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...w-japan-became-a-surprise-covid-success-story
 
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https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...on=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~JPN
 
Good Evening All,

I have travelled to both the Netherlands and Norway in the last 4 weeks. Life is being conducted, broadly, as normal in these countries yet they don't have the issues we seem to be having in the UK. I don't believe there is any great difference in levels of vaccination between the three countries.

The 7 day death rate in Scotland, along with the number of cases is on the way back up again............

I find it all terribly depressing and am powerless to do anything substantive about it.

Regards

Richard
I can’t see the Scottish incidence or death rates rising from the data sets I’m looking at- can you show your source?
Public Health Scotland:
31KmXnI.jpg

cyV5YX2.jpg
 
43 423 cases (25% up on last saturday) and 148 deaths

It's not looking good is it? We are, I suppose, being slowly conditioned that 150 deaths a day is OK, but what if that starts to climb which it probably will do over winter. Where is the point where people will not tolerate it or is there no point at which that happens now (unless someone is directly affected)? I suspect it's the latter. It's so annoying when just some basic minor preventative measures could still help dramatically that we seem to be hellbent on leading the world in how not to handle a pandemic!
 
It's not looking good is it? We are, I suppose, being slowly conditioned that 150 deaths a day is OK, but what if that starts to climb which it probably will do over winter. Where is the point where people will not tolerate it or is there no point at which that happens now (unless someone is directly affected)? I suspect it's the latter. It's so annoying when just some basic minor preventative measures could still help dramatically that we seem to be hellbent on leading the world in how not to handle a pandemic!

You are quite right. I did my first bit of face to face yesterday and ventured 'down south'. Up here (north cumbria) most people wear masks in shops and petrol stations etc. I was the only person in Watford Gap with one on! Also just as you say here you go: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-much-more-relaxed-about-covid-than-europeans
 
I can’t see the Scottish incidence or death rates rising from the data sets I’m looking at- can you show your source?
Public Health Scotland:
31KmXnI.jpg

cyV5YX2.jpg
travellingtabby.com has shown a rise over the week from 17.6 to 20 deaths a day, OK maybe not "significant" but it isn't going away.

It is still proving a drain on NHS resources and limiting dealing with all the postponed works.

Regards

Richard
 
The recent spike in Covid deaths in Scotland is indeed a puzzle but one thing I’ve learned about this disease is that you need to be careful about drawing conclusions from short term variations across regions. For context, here is the death rate across the U.K. for the whole period of the pandemic.

Gc4t9rq.jpg
 
The recent spike in Covid deaths in Scotland is indeed a puzzle but one thing I’ve learned about this disease is that you need to be careful about drawing conclusions from short term variations across regions. For context, here is the death rate across the U.K. for the whole period of the pandemic.

As per gavreid's post above the COVID-19 related death figures in Scotland have been disproportionally higher for some time now and there doesn't appear to be any concern at government level............... I haven't raised it previously for fear of being accused of 'SNP' bashing. It doesn't appear to be getting reported anywhere obvious I can see......

While we're raising reporting I see there is a piece on the BBC News web site about pregnant women, COVID-19 and ICU treatment and that is the headline. Much further down it is stated that none of the women requiring ICU treatment were fully vaccinated.

Regards

Richard
 
As per gavreid's post above the COVID-19 related death figures in Scotland have been disproportionally higher for some time now and there doesn't appear to be any concern at government level............... I haven't raised it previously for fear of being accused of 'SNP' bashing. It doesn't appear to be getting reported anywhere obvious I can see......

While we're raising reporting I see there is a piece on the BBC News web site about pregnant women, COVID-19 and ICU treatment and that is the headline. Much further down it is stated that none of the women requiring ICU treatment were fully vaccinated.

Regards

Richard
Read the preceding post. Regarding “for some time now”- here are the relative death rates for “the some time now” period.

7O6Ea0J.jpg[
 
In last weeks Marr Jenny Harries said something which has been bugging me slightly. Harries said, concerning the models from Imperial and Warwick released on 12 July, the following

Each of these models is a scenario and we are in fact tracking along one of those scenarios quite steadily.

but of course she didn't say which one.

I think it's the pink line - transmissibility increasing only gradually until 1 September up to “central” R, high vaccine efficiency -- from the Imperial paper

Capture.jpg


The dotted line is the peak of the January 2021 wave. You can read the details here, where you'll find their modelling for deaths and cases.

S1303_Imperial_College_London_Evaluating_the_Roadmap_out_of_Lockdown_for_England_modelling_the_delayed_step_4.2_of_the_roadmap_in_the_context_of_the_Delta_variant__7_July_2021__1_.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

Anyway, if I'm right, we have some headlights.
 
It is where I come from - perhaps not on your planet ;)

Are you confusing cases and positive test results? We don't really know about cases after w/e 9th.

We do know that Scotland had some sort of peak though, maybe local maybe not, so that bodes well.
 
Are you confusing cases and positive test results? We don't really know about cases after w/e 9th.

We do know that Scotland had some sort of peak though, maybe local maybe not, so that bodes well.

No, these are hospitalisations so they're facts on the ground not estimates of case numbers
 
No, these are hospitalisations so they're facts on the ground not estimates of case numbers

If admissions peak next week or the week after, no-one can say. But from the pink line we have an informed conjecture about the shape of things to come, not just wishful thinking.

Ask the guys at ISage about it, I'd like to know what a real epidemiologist has to say. Is the pink line one of the reasons they decided to focus on kids and long covid?
 
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