Coronavirus - the new strain XX

[gavreid]

You are not the only one to suspect an artefact of analysis.

• I did my due diligence and perturbed the analysis to check - and the oscillations remained.
• And if you actually look carefully at the daily source data on a simple graph you can see the oscillations.

I am still open to the possibility of analysis artefact but that possibility has not survived the basic checks I did make.

I've always put these down to measurement artefact, some feature of the way tests are performed and analysed. Can you not drive the oscillations? The idea that they remain unperturbed is odd. A difference frequency beating between England and Scotland, for example, due to differing interventions - just a thought.

 

[IanW]

Let's hope he is right in correcting himself COVID-19: Vallance corrects mistake to say 60% of people being admitted to hospital with coronavirus are unvaccinated | UK News | Sky News I fear a surge in hospitalisation is on it's way because many have decided not to test. The figures are false where infection is concerned. We are averaging around 1000 hospitalisations a day at present & averaging 100 deaths per day. The government seem to have accepted this as standard considering restrictions which i find quite worrying because as the stats prove, it's the vulnerable & those living in poverty most at risk, which considering we are living under Tory rule is not surprising.

There is no doubt that we are in a difficult phase and that the vulnerable and those living in poverty are most at risk.

Like Gav, I have checked the trend in the hospitalization figures, and they do look to be past their peak and have started to reduce, around 10 days after the daily number of positive cases started to drop. This is entirely consistent with what has been seen in previous waves (and in Scotland very recently as they were around 3 weeks ahead of the rest of the UK).

Sadly the number of deaths is likely to continue rising as the peak, if it follows the previous waves, will be around 10 days after the hospitalization peak (so maybe ~6 days away).

 

[gavreid]

There is no doubt that we are in a difficult phase and that the vulnerable and those living in poverty are most at risk.

Like Gav, I have checked the trend in the hospitalization figures, and they do look to be past their peak and have started to reduce, around 10 days after the daily number of positive cases started to drop. This is entirely consistent with what has been seen in previous waves (and in Scotland very recently as they were around 3 weeks ahead of the rest of the UK).

If you're looking at the UK hospitalisations then they will be decreasing owing to the decrease in scottish admissions. I'm not sure if the England-only figures that I follow have peaked quite yet. Just maybe...

 

[Tony L]

I went into the vast dirty outside today. It was full of humans. Bloody filthy things. I didn’t enjoy an hour each way on the tram in an FFP2 mask (many folk on it not wearing masks despite requests from Metrolink to do so). It was fun/frustrating doing a tentative shift at the museum for the first time in 18 months. I decided to use one of the museum-supplied cloth masks (masks are mandatory for staff/volunteers) as the place is big and well ventilated, so a little easier to deal with than the FFP2. Hard trying to communicate with punters though, mask makes things way harder/more effort. That done I went to the Use Hearing Protection Factory exhibition upstairs which was cool. I also picked up a box of lateral flow tests which are issued freely to staff and volunteers so I’ll do one tomorrow to see if I picked anything up.

PS Manchester really knows how to rain. Unbelievable what fell out of the sky when I was walking to the tram. Just heard on C4 News one of the lightning strikes set a hospital roof alight!

 

[Marchbanks]

Manchester really knows how to rain. Unbelievable what fell out of the sky when I was walking to the tram. Just heard on C4 News one of the lightning strikes set a hospital roof alight!

Yes, this was mentioned in another thread. Not pleasant. These days I agree wholeheartedly with your views on humanity, too. Maskless hordes in supermarkets with tribes of uncontrolled kids smearing their hands over face, noses and shelves in any order... (the kids, I mean. Well, usually.) I also bought a pack of FFP2s this week to celebrate Freedom to be Coughed On Day.

 

[gavreid]

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Protection spoke on Wednesday about evidence that vaccinated people can spread the Covid-19 Delta variant to others, after the nation’s top health agency expanded on its new guidance that fully vaccinated Americans wear masks indoors in certain places...

This, of course, comes at the same time as the UK removes quaratine for the double jabbed...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...0811859feb6609#block-6101621d8f0811859feb6609

 

[TheDecameron]

Mercifully, it looks like NHS England and it’s staff have dodged a bullet,

https://www.theguardian.com/society...-simon-stevens-as-head?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

[davidsrsb]

This, of course, comes at the same time as the UK removes quaratine for the double jabbed...

Only for the USA and the EU, not the rest of the world where we are often better able to prove it

 

[gavreid]

Only for the USA and the EU, not the rest of the world where we are often better able to prove it

Sorry I don't follow - why does being able to prove you are double jabbed matter if you can still carry the virus and be infectious? You also are not required to wear a mask. The Government gave in to the travel industry lobby.

 

[mandryka]

why does being able to prove you are double jabbed matter if you can still carry the virus and be infectious? You also are not required to wear a mask.

If you do have it you are less likely to transmit a dose of delta which will be harmful. And you are less likely to have delta in the first place.

 

[gavreid]

If you do have it you are less likely to transmit a dose of delta which will be harmful. And you are less likely to have delta in the first place.

Are you? With Delta?

 

[mandryka]

Are you? With Delta?

Probably.

 

[gavreid]

Probably.

not wishful thinking?

 

[mandryka]

not wishful thinking?

No, there is good evidence to suggest that it is probably the case.

 

[gavreid]

No, there is good evidence to suggest that it is probably the case.

...

 

[mandryka]

...

You know these things are never black and white. Is it a good risk for the Government to take, given the level of vaccination, the spread of delta and the value of the travel industry. Well, it's not obviously a bad risk!

This is the epidemic, the reality of the society/virus interaction.

 

[gavreid]

You know these things are never black and white. Is it a good risk for the Government to take, given the level of vaccination, the spread of delta and the value of the travel industry. Well, it's not obviously a bad risk!

This is the epidemic, the reality of the society/virus interaction.

probabilities are additive in an either/or situation. The individual risks might not be so great but when you build a big American breakfast pancake stack of risk, embellished with further risk on top you are asking for trouble.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

What risk does the maple syrup represent? And will there be bacon?

There should be bacon. I like bacon.

 

[Enfield boy]

If you do have it you are less likely to transmit a dose of delta which will be harmful. And you are less likely to have delta in the first place.

Hasn't there been 23,000 cases or so not counted because they were re-infections? Are people suffering such re-infection not capable of infecting others? Is it not true that some sufferers have been double vaccinated?

 

[tiggers]

Sky are banging on about a pingdemic again!!!! FFS the app is only pinging so much because there are so many cases!!! Why can they not understand this???