Coronavirus - the new strain XX

[gavreid]

The graphs are available on the coronavirus.gov.uk website. There is enough data now to calculate that reduction. I was told it had been reduced by a factor of 10 (i.e. number of hospital cases reduced for same number of positive daily tests) by someone who analyses the data in detail, but I have not checked this yet.

There's a usuful graph here - the peak is about 25% of what it would have been, according to the FT (I realise that is a different figure)

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1418952161891864589/photo/1

This is their analysis of risk of dying by age too

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1418952154342166539/photo/1

 

[IanW]

There's a useful graph here - the peak is about 25% of what it would have been, according to the FT (I realise that is a different figure)

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1418952161891864589/photo/1

This is their analysis of risk of dying by age too

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1418952154342166539/photo/1

Thanks.

My very rough calculations comparing wave 2 and wave 3 give the same results as the FT graph.

 

[gavreid]

23 511 cases, 131 deaths and 836 admissions.

 

[mandryka]

Yes I think the Scottish positive test figures dropped similarly when schools closed there at the end of June.

I think it shows again just how much covid is spread in schools. In Scotland, while they have seen a fall in cases and importantly also in hospitalisations, they have also seen increasing positivity so less testing, which supports your argument to a degree. We are going to get some temporary respite for a little while I think, but these next few months will be dangerous for people.

 

[gavreid]

Yes I think the Scottish positive test figures dropped similarly when schools closed there at the end of June.

Don't underestimate the football effect either, the m/f case ratio hit 9/1 at one point apparently. It was all still perfectly safe of course.

 

[gavreid]

Ireland follows Greece (yesterday) in deciding to vaccinate children

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...0811859feb56de#block-61002db08f0811859feb56de

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

23 511 cases, 131 deaths and 836 admissions.

Cases seem to be falling far too fast to be credible.

 

[mandryka]

Cases seem to be falling far too fast to be credible.

I think I was wrong to suggest above that similar things happened in Scotland, maybe someone feels like looking at the numbers more carefully.

 

[Tony L]

Popped up on my Facebook timeline earlier, seems to fit here…

 

[Spraggons Den]

131 deaths is appalling.

 

[Seanm]

Makes sense to distrust government but indiscriminate distrust is crazy. There’s nothing wrong with the data and the only reason it seems incredible is that scientific opinion has been systematically misrepresented. Whatever the iSage-generated headlines there was never any scientific consensus around government policy and most credible scientific voices have insisted on the impossibility of being certain about which way things might go. What’s happening now is not in itself surprising:

https://twitter.com/nicktriggle/status/1420116388241453060?s=21

It’s a shame that scientific opinion has been so badly misrepresented because Johnson is now going to look like a maverick genius for “defying the experts” and it will be even more difficult to get government to do what needs to be done.

 

[Tony L]

Makes sense to distrust government but indiscriminate distrust is crazy.

Who is being indiscriminate? I was merely reflecting on how “cases” were being counted, how that figure has always been pretty vague, how it is likely being collected now people are effectively incentivised by government policy to remove safety protocols, delete the app, ignore ‘pings’ and go to work, socialise etc regardless. I’ll only be paying attention to hospitalisations and deaths from now on. Those, and vaccination numbers, are the only credible data we have to assess where we are. ‘Long covid’ is the other key statistic, but it is hard to assess at this stage. I’m ignoring “cases” anyway, I suspect that is just noise now.

 

[sean99]

We know that the vaccines provide excellent protection against hospitalization and death from covid, but is there any data on the protection they provide against long covid ?

 

[gavreid]

Teenagers have a much stronger risk of myocarditis from covid than from vaccination (preprint)

 

[gavreid]

We know that the vaccines provide excellent protection against hospitalization and death from covid, but is there any data on the protection they provide against long covid ?

I've not seen anything. Long covid seems to be unrelated to the severity of infection though.

 

[mandryka]

Makes sense to distrust government but indiscriminate distrust is crazy. There’s nothing wrong with the data and the only reason it seems incredible is that scientific opinion has been systematically misrepresented. Whatever the iSage-generated headlines there was never any scientific consensus around government policy and most credible scientific voices have insisted on the impossibility of being certain about which way things might go. What’s happening now is not in itself surprising:

https://twitter.com/nicktriggle/status/1420116388241453060?s=21

It’s a shame that scientific opinion has been so badly misrepresented because Johnson is now going to look like a maverick genius for “defying the experts” and it will be even more difficult to get government to do what needs to be done.

I thought you may be interested in this Sun editorial


THE SUN SAYS
Politically motivated ‘experts’ predicting catastrophe have done far more harm than good during the pandemic

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15710498/covid-experts-politically-motivated-harm/

 

[gavreid]

I thought you may be interested in this Sun editorial


THE SUN SAYS
Politically motivated ‘experts’ predicting catastrophe have done far more harm than good during the pandemic

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15710498/covid-experts-politically-motivated-harm/

The Sun, Mail, Conservative Home, Torry backbench - be careful who you're aligning yourselves with - politics is allowable only if you're to the right of Ghengis Khan it seems.

 

[Joe Hutch]

Here's what appears to be a balanced, measured analysis of trends:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57984170

tl:dr Much depends on a) whether, and how fast younger age groups are vaccinated, and b) how fast 'socialising' increases (it's still well below pre-Covid levels).

[Disclaimer: I am not a statistician or a virologist, so don't shoot the messenger]

 

[Joe Hutch]

The Sun, Mail, Conservative Home, Torry backbench - be careful who you're aligning yourselves with - politics is allowable only if you're to the right of Ghengis Khan it seems.

Indeed. I won't link to it, but Sarah Vile is mouthing off in the Daily Fail today about 'Haha, those experts were wrong all along!'

 

[Seanm]

Indeed. I won't link to it, but Sarah Vile is mouthing off in the Daily Fail today about 'Haha, those experts were wrong all along!'

The point is that most experts were "right", in the sense that they said the whole thing was very finely poised and very uncertain. TBF, the right wing papers were always going to go with "Experts were wrong!" but that's a lot easier than it might have been because the real, more nuanced position of most experts was buried under headlines about 12 bajillion scientists condemning government's vile experiments on our children etc.

You can't fight bullshit with bullshit.