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Coronavirus - the new strain XIX

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Europe probably wasn’t seeded with the delta variant as effectively as the U.K. was. They have yet to face the inevitable exponential growth when it becomes their dominant strain. Looks like Portugal will go first.
 
Europe probably wasn’t seeded with the delta variant as effectively as the U.K. was. They have yet to face the inevitable exponential growth when it becomes their dominant strain. Looks like Portugal will go first.

There are quite a lot of people from Indian families in Europe, I once found some figures, but of course not as many in any single country as there are in the UK - so yes, they’re more spread out than here probably.

Yes Portugal and then Spain will go first I expect, and soon. It is like watching a train crash in slow motion - and the French radio is full of talk about summer hols on the Costa Brava.
 
Europe probably wasn’t seeded with the delta variant as effectively as the U.K. was. They have yet to face the inevitable exponential growth when it becomes their dominant strain. Looks like Portugal will go first.
Portugal may regret letting in all those UK tourists.
 
Europe is still quite a bit behind us with 2nd dose. Delta variant will hit, look at all the travel across Europe with the football & foreign holidays. Some evidence of infection spikes in Cornwall due to G7 summit, they will be taking back a different kind of present.

It’s not about winners & losers, a unified strategy is needed; this will not happen.
 
Ne paniquez pas!


70% of delta in the region called Les Landes.

I say once again in front of France, be scared of the virus, don't be scared of the vaccine . . . the vaccine is for your freedom . . . I say to young people that the vaccine will permit you to go to sports matches and on holidays . . . vaccination is a national cause, we can't go backwards . . . the way out is called vaccination . . .
 
More than 2 million people have suffered from long covid for more than 3 months, double earlier estimates

https://www.theguardian.com/society...d-have-had-long-covid-for-over-12-weeks-study

I saw that and it's rather alarming. I know a lot of the current thinking is all 'we're going to get a steep rise in cases but life has to go back to normal' but when this is one of the legacies of the disease it makes you realise it's about so much more than just the immediate illness (which is bad enough). However, I realise I'm in a minority now with thinking like this as freedom day is upon us :rolleyes:
 
I saw that and it's rather alarming. I know a lot of the current thinking is all 'we're going to get a steep rise in cases but life has to go back to normal' but when this is one of the legacies of the disease it makes you realise it's about so much more than just the immediate illness (which is bad enough). However, I realise I'm in a minority now with thinking like this as freedom day is upon us :rolleyes:

I'm not convinced that you are. There was strong majority support for the delay, which might well still be there if cases are running out of control. It's big business (travel and Lloyd-Webbers ilk) that's driving the Government agenda, not the people who will suffer.
 
More than 2 million people have suffered from long covid for more than 3 months, double earlier estimates

https://www.theguardian.com/society...d-have-had-long-covid-for-over-12-weeks-study
I’m probably in those stats, somewhere, as my GP confirmed my suspicion that some ongoing issues I’m experiencing are in all likelihood long COVID. But my experience is not debilitating like some sufferers, just a bit of a PITA for some things. It’s more like a disease with a very long tail, than an ongoing, long-term acute phase. So, as with COVID itself, there’s probably a wide range of severity of disease and hopefully that 2 million figure doesn’t imply 2 million non-functioning people in the workplace.
 
I'm not convinced that you are. There was strong majority support for the delay, which might well still be there if cases are running out of control. It's big business (travel and Lloyd-Webbers ilk) that's driving the Government agenda, not the people who will suffer.

Yes, I guess it just feels like that, but even in here some people's views seem to be softening towards a 'c'est la vie' position. Let's hope if things continue to go the way they are (more cases etc.) that some common sense prevails. This rushed desire to consign masks and social distancing to the bin worries me.
 
More than 2 million people have suffered from long covid for more than 3 months, double earlier estimates

https://www.theguardian.com/society...d-have-had-long-covid-for-over-12-weeks-study

I’m probably in those stats, somewhere, as my GP confirmed my suspicion that some ongoing issues I’m experiencing are in all likelihood long COVID. But my experience is not debilitating like some sufferers, just a bit of a PITA for some things. It’s more like a disease with a very long tail, than an ongoing, long-term acute phase. So, as with COVID itself, there’s probably a wide range of severity of disease and hopefully that 2 million figure doesn’t imply 2 million non-functioning people in the workplace.

Me too having been left with a rubbish sense of smell, being even crapper at remembering names and insomnia. Nothing that’s stopping me doing anything, but as we say, a bit of a bloody nuisance. I’m certain there’s a range and most people are somewhere on the workable end of it. Certainly most of the people I know with longer lasting effects have it quite mildly. Only one person in my circle of acquaintances has been unable to go back and function. Another had a prolonged absence. Not a perfect sample of course, but I think we have to be careful of going overboard. We have to learn to live with this thing as we aren’t getting rid of it.

On another note, I’m very grateful to @gavreid for all his hard work, was pleased to see you were using the MEN charts recently, I’ve used those for months. I noticed you’d not used them recently. They seem to be significantly more positive, it appears to me the virus has run into the vaccinated population and is slowing down. Would you agree with that hypothesis? The rise in numbers is definitely slowing down.
 
On another note, I’m very grateful to @gavreid for all his hard work, was pleased to see you were using the MEN charts recently, I’ve used those for months. I noticed you’d not used them recently. They seem to be significantly more positive, it appears to me the virus has run into the vaccinated population and is slowing down. Would you agree with that hypothesis? The rise in numbers is definitely slowing down.

The intervention in Manchester seems to have been really effective as you say. I'm more worried about the spreading from GM now but that's certainly the kind of intensity that is required more widely, if that's possible with the existing infastructure. The vaccines are helping certainly and double dosing can't come quickly enough, together with a positive decision to get on with vaccinating teenagers now that there is regulatory approval.
 
The latest PHE report covering week 24.

"Overall case rates increased in week 24. Case rates increased in all age groups and regions, and most ethnic groups. Overall Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 positivity increased compared to the previous week, most notably in younger age groups"

The usual map is on p. 14 confirming significant spreading in the past week.

There were another 201 incidents from educational settings, which account for about 50% of all outbreaks.
 
There were another 201 incidents from educational settings, which account for about 50% of all outbreaks.
We might hope that end of term brings about a slowing in growth, perhaps even a reversal. It does seem clear that kids and young people are a significant spread vector, partly because they are more likely to be mildly affected or asymptomatic, so may be less likely to stick to distancing and other measures, because kids.
 
It looks as though some of the main players are set to ban inward travel from the UK, I am delighted by this as it will prevent the number of new variants. I do think we are far quicker to identify new variants here, delta +, formerly known as 'Nepal' has been known about for weeks. As ever, fingers crossed.
 
We might hope that end of term brings about a slowing in growth, perhaps even a reversal. It does seem clear that kids and young people are a significant spread vector, partly because they are more likely to be mildly affected or asymptomatic, so may be less likely to stick to distancing and other measures, because kids.

I think it depends how much easing there is to be. The Government is preparing to retain some measures I suspect, with advice replacing legal requirement. The current measues are clearly too weak and the growth of Delta both here and in Europe will be one of the immediate concerns. It remains unknown I think if Delta+ has a transmissibility advantage but it does have the same mutation as the SA (Beta?) variant that plain Delta does not. I'd like to see an update of the sage models nearer the time but prior to decisions having been taken!
 
The intervention in Manchester seems to have been really effective as you say. I'm more worried about the spreading from GM now but that's certainly the kind of intensity that is required more widely, if that's possible with the existing infastructure. The vaccines are helping certainly and double dosing can't come quickly enough, together with a positive decision to get on with vaccinating teenagers now that there is regulatory approval.

Good to hear, I really hope Gtr Mcr is nearing the top of the bell curve. There are though masses of cases occurring in schools. I know of many classes going down in recent weeks. Fingers crossed for the summer holidays.
 
It looks as though some of the main players are set to ban inward travel from the UK, I am delighted by this as it will prevent the number of new variants. I do think we are far quicker to identify new variants here, delta +, formerly known as 'Nepal' has been known about for weeks. As ever, fingers crossed.

What’s the point of quarantining someone who’s fully vaccinated? I mean, I’ve not seen the figures, but if full vaccination is felt to be a good thing for care home workers, that must be because it really reduces your viral load. Add to this that the EU countries would have been daft not to make sure that there’s a high rate of vaccination among the residents in the big tourist centres - Greek and Spanish islands, Costa Brava etc.

And add to this that I really want to take a few days in Holland next month . . .
 
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