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Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII

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Public inquiry announced - but probably won't report before the next election - the Tories are scrapping the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Note what Johnson says about a winter surge (he has also acknowledged today that the Indian variant “of increasing concern”)

"Should [new variants] prove highly transmissible and elude the protection of our vaccines, they would have the potential to cause even greater suffering than we endured in January. There is in any case a high likelihood of a surge this winter when the weather assists the transmission of all respiratory diseases and when the pressure on our NHS is most acute.

So I expect that the right moment for the inquiry to begin is at the end of this period in the spring of next year, spring 2022."

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...08e757a7352776#block-609bc08c8f08e757a7352776

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...0831dd83f77171#block-609bc20e8f0831dd83f77171
 
Two key points from this article in the Huffington Post on the Indian variant. Nothing firm to say its transmissibility may be greater than the Kent one or that it’s more vaccine-resistant than that. In fact the early evidence is the India variant won’t escape vaccinations as effectively as the SA one! There’s “slight concern” but nothing too alarming to get into a panic about!

Prof Whitty is quoted below following Monday’s press conference.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....vaccines-and-you_uk_6094fb0ce4b05fb33f4b06cc/

“He noted this variant is at least as transmissible as the B117 (Kent) variant, and added it might even be more transmissible.”

“At Monday’s press conference, Prof Whitty said early evidence suggests the India variant would not escape vaccination as effectively as the South African variant.”

Whitty goes onto point out that the Indian variant is “slightly concerning.”

Just watch the Monday press conference if you haven’t and that sets everything out. All the main tests have been met including the variant one and no reason not to go ahead with the May 17 opening.
 
2 284 cases (again higher than last wednesday - the rolling 7 day average is now up 13%), and 11 deaths. The 7 day rolling average for admissions shows a fall of only 7% in line with the previous stagnation of case numbers. Perhaps naively, I'd expected the fall in admissions to accelerate with the vaccination program rather than to stagnate as it's showing.
 
^
Cases were always going to rise as we come out of lockdown so no real surprise there. Deaths and hospital admissions are what matters and they continue to come down. The vaccines are clearly doing their job and have broken the link between rising cases and hospitalisations and deaths.

What really irks me is scaremongering of the worst kind, such as this from the Daily Fail about the Indian variant. It really is gutter journalism at its worst and totally irresponsible.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
 
being complacent is totally irresponsible - if we see a surge of admissions and deaths we need to act fast.
 
gintonic said:
being complacent is totally irresponsible - if we see a surge of admissions and deaths we need to act fast.
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Being complacent is totally irresponsible, I agree. We do need to act fast if there is a surge in admissions and deaths, but the data isn’t showing this.

Take Bolton for instance, in the seven days to May 7, Bolton recorded 437 positive new cases of Covid, a significant increase on the previous seven days, to April 30, where the town recorded 214 positive new cases.

Despite this, there have been no deaths recorded from Covid at the Royal Bolton Hospital in nearly two weeks. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/19296128.amp/

Make of that what you will...
 
deej92 said:
Being complacent is totally irresponsible, I agree. We do need to act fast if there is a surge in admissions and deaths, but the data isn’t showing this.

Take Bolton for instance, in the seven days to May 7, Bolton recorded 437 positive new cases of Covid, a significant increase on the previous seven days, to April 30, where the town recorded 214 positive new cases.

Despite this, there have been no deaths recorded from Covid at the Royal Bolton Hospital in nearly two weeks. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/19296128.amp/

Make of that what you will...
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I think what I make of that, to be honest, is that cases detected now wouldn't be dying for about 3-4 weeks anyway, so we need to look closely at Bolton's death figures in a week or three, not now.
 
gavreid said:
2 284 cases (again higher than last wednesday - the rolling 7 day average is now up 13%), and 11 deaths.
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My concern is that the size of the largest hot spots may have stopped decreasing and started increasing. Obviously with only a handful of hotspots with which to judge local conditions will have a significant influence and it is too early to judge. If the current hotspots do continue to grow over the next week to levels well above the maximums of 2-3 weeks ago then the current easing of lockdown is failing to contain in areas with significant levels of infection. These areas will grow. Easing conditions everywhere next week will make matters worse. Targeted lockdowns are an obvious solution but would require a bit more social cohesion and competence in tracking infections than has been demonstrated so far.

Let's hope particular local conditions are responsible for the high growth rate and not UK wide conditions. Should know in a week or two and given my location currently has the highest infection rate in the country I am watching rather more closely than I have been.
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
I think what I make of that, to be honest, is that cases detected now wouldn't be dying for about 3-4 weeks anyway, so we need to look closely at Bolton's death figures in a week or three, not now.
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We’ll have to see. Bolton Council are saying the infection rate is high amongst young people who are already very low risk.

Early indications are the vaccines are working against this Indian variant which is what Prof Whitty has already suggested...
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
I think what I make of that, to be honest, is that cases detected now wouldn't be dying for about 3-4 weeks anyway, so we need to look closely at Bolton's death figures in a week or three, not now.
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yes indeed

deej92 said:
Early indications are the vaccines are working against this Indian variant which is what Prof Whitty has already suggested...
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yes "suggested" but not confirmed.

deej92 said:
Most of the people are getting the virus are the unvaccinated younger generation who are already at extremely low risk.
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"extremely low risk"? can you quantify that? if that variant is more transmissible, and the vaccines offer limited protection, those young people are going to make granny ill, and possibly dead.

Maybe we should lock down the younguns.
 
h.g. said:
Let's hope particular local conditions are responsible for the high growth rate and not UK wide conditions. Should know in a week or two and given my location currently has the highest infection rate in the country I am watching rather more closely than I have been.
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Yes, it's a couple of hundred extra cases daily so that's very difficult to pin down. It might suggest growth in the hotspots but I sense it's a little more than that based on last Thursday's numbers. We'll get an update tomorrow hopefully.
 
h.g. said:
My concern is that the size of the largest hot spots may have stopped decreasing and started increasing. Obviously with only a handful of hotspots with which to judge local conditions will have a significant influence and it is too early to judge. If the current hotspots do continue to grow over the next week to levels well above the maximums of 2-3 weeks ago then the current easing of lockdown is failing to contain in areas with significant levels of infection. These areas will grow. Easing conditions everywhere next week will make matters worse. Targeted lockdowns are an obvious solution but would require a bit more social cohesion and competence in tracking infections than has been demonstrated so far.

Let's hope particular local conditions are responsible for the high growth rate and not UK wide conditions. Should know in a week or two and given my location currently has the highest infection rate in the country I am watching rather more closely than I have been.
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Not long now until the skies are full of aeroplanes of happy holidaymakers, who on their return will be heading out to the pubs.
 
deej92 said:
...If the variant is considerably more vaccine-resistant and we do see a marked rise in hospitalisations and deaths, then yes that could be the time to consider rowing back on the roadmap. It’s too early to tell at the moment and I’m sure we’ll find out in the coming weeks what effect the May 17 re-opening has and how well the current vaccines work.
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That being a closing the barn door after the horse has bolted situation.
I remember back to early in the pandemic where the possibility of significant mutations was dismissed as unlikely.
We have even got evidence of two strains swapping RNA and making hybrids. This process can and does lead to swapping with unrelated viruses
 
SAGE is to hold an emergency meeting today over the Indian variant. There is suggestion that PHE figures today will show that numbers have tripled in a week. React also shows evidence of increased transmission over the Kent variant.

"The findings come as Prof Tom Wenseleers, at the University of Leuven, who worked closely with UK scientists on the spread of B.1.1.7, said the Indian variant of concern could be 60% more transmissible than the former."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...iant-may-be-spreading-faster-than-kent-strain
 
It is reported that the India variant may be spreading faster in London: part of the reason may be that London also has a significantly lower vaccination rate than the rest of the UK.
 
wacko said:
It is reported that the India variant may be spreading faster in London: part of the reason may be that London also has a significantly lower vaccination rate than the rest of the UK.
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They're saying too that the recent increase in cases maybe from London and the SE predominantly.
 
The local weekly moving average infection rate rose again today but by less than 10% compared to yesterday. The strength of the hotspots does seem to be getting larger relative to the average as lockdown conditions ease with only vaccinations and no effective track and trace to handle the outbreaks. Chatted to my next door but one neighbour this morning (retired living alone) when she was out walking her dog. Didn't know her town had had the highest covid infection rate in the country and rising for the last 5 days or so. Had seen the mobile testing lab in the park but did not recognise the significance. It illustrates something about the way we live and are currently handling this epidemic but I am not sure quite what.
 
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