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Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII

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Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but that looks as though a line with roughly half the gradient would still fit those new data points, albeit the data are a bit noisier than before (possibly in consequence of the smaller number of data points?). That would, I think, imply roughly a doubling of the time period to halve, but still an exponential curve? In any event, the trend is still downwards, and meaningfully so and, as you say, it’s well below where it would have been, pre-vaccination.
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You can do that but it's just fitting for the sake of fitting - it isn't the same exponential as you say. The red line is the same as we've had since January, I haven't changed it for precisely this moment in time, now we can easily compare. There are really two competing effects the flattening and now the probable increase in cases and the race to vaccinate.
 
The Indian variants B.1.617 are now a 'global concern' showing signs of being more transmissible. No variant has remained dominant for more than about 5 months or so, which of course is faster than vaccines can be made and rolled out. Nevertheless, there is belief/hope that the current vaccines will be effective against this Indian family of variants.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...08162fadb17277#block-6099d1f28f08162fadb17277
 
2 474 new cases (up 25% on last Tuesday), 20 deaths and a catch up on admissions 88, 77, 80 and 76 to the 9th May.
 
Christina Pagel calls for a delay in the 17 May reopening owing the the B.1.617.2 variant. It's now in 44 countries but Britain has the highest rates outside India. It's spreading rapidly and doubling weekly. It's still unknown whether the vaccines are effective.

“We’ve done this so many times – waited until things got really bad before we realised we should have acted several weeks ago,” she said. “So why don’t we actually act several weeks ago – which is now!”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts
 
Pakistan and Bangladesh were on Red List since 9th April.
Why was there a crucial 2 week delay before India was added on 23rd April ?
Seems the UK is more scared of offending India than the EU.
 
gavreid said:
Christina Pagel calls for a delay in the 17 May reopening owing the the B.1.617.2 variant. It's now in 44 countries but Britain has the highest rates outside India. It's spreading rapidly and doubling weekly. It's still unknown whether the vaccines are effective.

“We’ve done this so many times – waited until things got really bad before we realised we should have acted several weeks ago,” she said. “So why don’t we actually act several weeks ago – which is now!”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts
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I agree with her. If these variants that we keep bringing in due to our fairly open border policy are going to go unchecked then we have no option but to apply more caution. Alternatively we could ban leisure travel to and from the UK and live a fairly normal life here... hmmmm!
 
gavreid said:
Christina Pagel calls for a delay in the 17 May reopening owing the the B.1.617.2 variant. It's now in 44 countries but Britain has the highest rates outside India. It's spreading rapidly and doubling weekly. It's still unknown whether the vaccines are effective.

“We’ve done this so many times – waited until things got really bad before we realised we should have acted several weeks ago,” she said. “So why don’t we actually act several weeks ago – which is now!”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts
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She’s quoted here, along with other experts:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57073312

Worth noting that she wants to delay opening up until September, and to seal the borders. The article makes clear, without stating it rudely, that she pretty much out there on her own (well, probably some Indy Sage company).

Seems very disproportionate and recklessly indifferent to the human cost of lockdown or the politics surrounding it. Especially this sealing the border BS which is the stuff of far right fantasy.
 
Seanm said:
She’s quoted here, along with other experts:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57073312

Worth noting that she wants to delay opening up until September, and to seal the borders. The article makes clear, without stating it rudely, that she pretty much out there on her own (well, probably some Indy Sage company).

Seems very disproportionate and recklessly indifferent to the human cost of lockdown or the politics surrounding it. Especially this sealing the border BS which is the stuff of far right fantasy.
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And you were singing her praises just recently ;)
 
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...ng-classified-by-phe-as-a-variant-of-concern/

07 May 2021 - Prof Sharon Peacock, Director of COG-UK, and Professor of Public Health and Microbiology, University of Cambridge, said:

"Looking ahead, if transmissibility of B.1.617.2 is comparable (or less than) B.1.1.7 (Kent variant), current restrictions would be expected to maintain the current progress in COVID-19 control. But more data and data analysis is required to understand whether this is the case, whether B.1.617.2 can out-compete B.1.1.7, and if so, what this means for disease control. There is no evidence at the present time to indicate that vaccines will not work, and it remains essential that people are encouraged to become vaccinated."

“The most important messages remain exactly the same – for people to comply with precautions to prevent infection and prevent spread to others, and to get their vaccination when called.”
 
Seeker_UK said:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...ng-classified-by-phe-as-a-variant-of-concern/

07 May 2021 - Prof Sharon Peacock, Director of COG-UK, and Professor of Public Health and Microbiology, University of Cambridge, said:

"Looking ahead, if transmissibility of B.1.617.2 is comparable (or less than) B.1.1.7 (Kent variant), current restrictions would be expected to maintain the current progress in COVID-19 control. But more data and data analysis is required to understand whether this is the case, whether B.1.617.2 can out-compete B.1.1.7, and if so, what this means for disease control. There is no evidence at the present time to indicate that vaccines will not work, and it remains essential that people are encouraged to become vaccinated."

“The most important messages remain exactly the same – for people to comply with precautions to prevent infection and prevent spread to others, and to get their vaccination when called.”
Click to expand...

That's the official message but at the same time there is also no evidence that the vaccines do work. There are already signs that B.1.617.2 is out-competing the Kent variant in the hotspots - London, Bolton, Blackburn. Again, it's averages across the country vs peaks. Clearly the spread of 1.1.7 is being controlled both by the vaccines but also the control measures. It makes a great deal of sense to delay 17th May by a month and to review the scene then.

In india 1.617 is now dominating 1.7

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1392132870064381956/photo/1
 
The situation is quite simple:

1) Open everything up as per the roadmap and if the new Indian variant is an issue (or we get another nasty one) we risk being back in lockdown by Xmas.

OR

2) Proceed more cautiously so we get back some normality slowly but surely and don't have to go back into lockdown.

Foreign travel for leisure in and out should be off the cards no matter what. If that makes me far right in the eyes of the forum's snidiest poster then I shan't lose much sleep :D
 
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