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Stock Market 2021

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I was only reading about the whole 'Family Offices' thing the other day.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/family-offices.asp

This family sure took a hit...it's always interesting how the same characters crawl out from under their rocks during boom/bubble markets and how ones are prepared to forget the past to facilitate their big bets?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...in-days?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

"...Another part is that global banks embraced him as a lucrative customer, despite a record of insider trading and attempted market manipulation that drove him out of the hedge fund business a decade ago.
Archegos established trading partnerships with firms including Nomura Holdings Inc., Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse Group AG. For a time after the SEC case, Goldman refused to do business with him on compliance grounds, but relented as rivals profited by meeting his needs."
 
^ Hwang has probably stashed a few million away.
OTOH Credit Suisse is hit for close to $5 billion.
 
Back in the real world (!), chatting to my father today, says plenty of business owners he knows are going to wind up once furlough ends, they’re only staying active for govt hand outs. Meanwhile my sister can’t find cleaning staff for her business, the (out of work) locals won’t do it. The zombie economy is alive and well.
 
Some of my business owning friends are experiencing a boom, one manufacturer reporting a record month by a long way. They were closed for 6 weeks in the first lockdown, have had a few furloughed staff in the Autumn, got rid of some dead wood and now are recruiting again. I was talking with some others too at a garden party at the weekend, they are all busy.. telecoms, manufacturing, IT architecture, Lawyers, Quantity surveyor in attendance. Others in NHS and Police, all busy busy. One couple own a holiday letting house in Devon - booked solid throughout the Summer - we were lucky to nab a week in June before the schools break up. Another close friend is in Logistics management and working all hours from his front upstairs room. Plenty of adverts on local Facebook with pubs wanting staff, another thing warming up. Rates for things are going up and other costs too - so quite a bit of inflation coming along. Timber prices increasing I am told.

And.... There is a wall of saved and unspent money tucked away in many peoples accounts ...nothing spent on holidays, general spending etc for over a year, but full income coming in. Cannot find builders or tradespeople, booked up for months. The small greenhouse I ordered in January is slated for delivery in August! An awning I just ordered.. won't be here till June...
 
^^ all good, however, many people will want to keep / build up a cash reserve for further bumps in the road. There is no way we’re out of the woods yet.
 
Ponty said:
^^ all good, however, many people will want to keep / build up a cash reserve for further bumps in the road. There is no way we’re out of the woods yet.
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Agreed and many people will be looking at a job free future. Young Rishi has done his bit to keep the Zombie economy rolling along and I don’t think it’s going to end well…….Wanders off into a corner and tries to find Eeyore’s gloomy place.
 
Ponty said:
^^ all good, however, many people will want to keep / build up a cash reserve for further bumps in the road. There is no way we’re out of the woods yet.
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They should but most won't...I mean why would you bother with these modern money trees.
 
Even if some people do keep some better savings, there is still plenty to be spent.

Metals are going to boom? - Car and other manufacturing will increase. Electrification and investment in new energy will go on, creating metals demand. Maybe not steel for ships - can't see many new container or cruise ships being built for a while. Rail - yes expansion has started - lines are re-opening, new stock, HS2 bla bla.

Manufacturing being re-shored... less reliance on China, seen as too far away and perhaps not as reliable (nor as cheap as it once was either)
 
andyoz said:
Doc Martin IPO also cracks me up. Used to be anti-establishment... nothing's safe from being wrapped up and monetized in this world hey? The Directors were selling off their shares on day 1 of IPO...they bought it in 2013 for £350 million, moved most manufacturing to China and then floated at IPO of 10x that (£3700 million).

I wonder how much of their own money was used for the £350m buyout...10% with the rest leveraged? So they have 100x in less than a decade and paid a bit of interest...

Good work if you can get it. I;m sure the former English workers are happy at Amazon or whatever.

https://g.co/kgs/uV54r2
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And very quickly, the quality of the boots, one of the original selling points, became rubbish.

I wouldn't touch the company with a bargepole now.
 
^^ Yes, the usual story. The new 'owners' literally don't care what the product is. As long as they can reduce the manufacturing cost.
 
JensenHealey said:
Manufacturing being re-shored... less reliance on China, seen as too far away and perhaps not as reliable (nor as cheap as it once was either)
Click to expand...

I see manufacturing leaving China (the Trump tariffs forced massive relocation out of china in the electronics sector). However I didn't see any come to the US or Europe - it went to Malaysia and Vietnam in our case.

Is mfg really moving back to the UK ? I'd be quite surprised (unless it's very high end, or highly mechanized with few workers).
 
I'm stirring back onto the market now that it's Spring. My previously described post-Covid recovery investment strategy (essentially buy undervalued UK shares and then largely sit on them until they double) is on track - in fact, at the moment anyway, nicely ahead of track. However, watching days where I had humungous downward swings, where my SIPP and other investments have lost huge amounts in one day, has truly built an inner strength to my gut! On the whole I am really enjoying it. I've sold much of Mitie (MTO) as it hit my target price and thinking out what I should do now with that cash - I wanted to buy Ted Baker (TED) but the price shot up on the very day I put my limit order in. Might wait for it to come back into my buy zone but also toying with US investment ideas which I think are those that Ian King of Banyard Hill is still teasing about in his more expensive subscription service (I only subscribe to his cheapo service). I worked out last year that one was BEEM (EV solar charging) and that went up threefold a few weeks, when I cashed out. That was easy to find as he gave enough clues to home in. This weekend I have found out from the comments on the interweb that the two others are probably Converge Technology Solutions CTSDF (IT integrator) and Relay Therapeutics RLAY (biotech - computational modelling of proteins to help predict cancer treatments) and I think they are correct. I am less convinced to invest in them as I don't know these sectors well enough, Converge have already gone up and although Relay do look attractive, it could be years until they deliver on their promise; I had enough professional background to see that BEEM was a good buy at that time. I think I might just wait for Ted Baker to drop back, if it doesn't, I will think about RLAY - I asked my medic friends, they like their ideas, but said they have a bit of competition and key risk is that they may never come good.
 
Got a new star in my portfolio - TR European Growth Trust, which is overtaking Scottish Mortgage and Royal Mail in my affections.
 
Looked at my main pension pot today, at a record high (along with most others I suspect). It all feels very, very wrong to me. Tempted to switch it to cash.
 
sean99 said:
I see manufacturing leaving China (the Trump tariffs forced massive relocation out of china in the electronics sector). However I didn't see any come to the US or Europe - it went to Malaysia and Vietnam in our case.

Is mfg really moving back to the UK ? I'd be quite surprised (unless it's very high end, or highly mechanized with few workers).
Click to expand...

Land price, housing, energy costs all high, lack of skilled workforce, hollowed out manufacturing infra structure so loss of critical mass are all working against the U.K.

Edit. Mexico is picking up quite a few projects from the dash from China.
 
^^^ Housing costs have fecked up any chance of many western countries having any serious manufacturing base.
 
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