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The 2021 F1 Season.

SteveS1 said:
With all their expertise available and a previous record of fast change, I doubt it would take long for them to catch up if they have lost some ground in terms of aerodynamics. The suggestion Sunday was around a significantly improved Honda engine. I would have thought it might take longer to match, but would like anyone well versed in these things to explain what might be concerning Mercedes most.
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It's a combination of factors. The aero reductions that affect the rear of the cars in the new regulations appear to be hampering cars that run a low rake (Merc/Aston) more than those that run a high rake (Red Bull, Alphatauri). Then you can factor in the new Honda engine which seems more powerful (a bonus in itself) , but more importantly is more compact meaning Red Bull can go further with aero at the back of the car than Merc with no physical change to the engine size. Add in Max Verstappen (who genuinely seems fast than any of his teammates by a large margin) and you have a faster Red Bull.

Luckily Mercedes have Lewis Hamilton, but they are worried that their car's high rake approach may not allow them to make up the lost ground to Red Bull especially as the cars as we know them are only here for one more season and next year the regulation changes are massive so at some point they have to start focusing on 2022 although that is the same for all teams. I think we will see some ebb and flow between Merc and Red Bull depending on the circuit types, but if Lewis is to win number 8 I think he is going to have to work harder than ever.... no bad thing for us, the spectators.
 
tiggers said:
It's a combination of factors. The aero reductions that affect the rear of the cars in the new regulations appear to be hampering cars that run a low rake (Merc/Aston) more than those that run a high rake (Red Bull, Alphatauri). Then you can factor in the new Honda engine which seems more powerful (a bonus in itself) , but more importantly is more compact meaning Red Bull can go further with aero at the back of the car than Merc with no physical change to the engine size. Add in Max Verstappen (who genuinely seems fast than any of his teammates by a large margin) and you have a faster Red Bull.

Luckily Mercedes have Lewis Hamilton, but they are worried that their car's high rake approach may not allow them to make up the lost ground to Red Bull especially as the cars as we know them are only here for one more season and next year the regulation changes are massive so at some point they have to start focusing on 2022 although that is the same for all teams. I think we will see some ebb and flow between Merc and Red Bull depending on the circuit types, but if Lewis is to win number 8 I think he is going to have to work harder than ever.... no bad thing for us, the spectators.
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Thanks I assume that we can take the first one as Lewis wining "one against the head" in as much as the track seemed to reward more flat out speed, which should have favoured Max.
 
A little bit of Merc development history that explains why we have the current situation.

Some time around 2010 teams, and in particular Merc, started to develop hydraulic suspensions. They were basically analogue computers with valves in various locations that triggered flows based on various events. This was mainly targeted at keeping the ride heights in the required window for the aero to work. With a bit of roll couple distribution management through the corner.

Over time these systems (called FRIC internally at Merc and also later on by the commentators) were regulated out of existence.

Merc had continued down the path of developing a low rake aero solution as it worked very well for them. During this time they were very happy for other teams and the rule makers to think that it was just the powerplant that made them so strong. But the aero solution has generally been right up there with the best throughout the hybrid era.

Many attempts were made to slow Merc down by changing front wing regs etc, but they had little negative effect on the Merc solution.

Meanwhile RBR and many other teams had gone for high rake aero solutions as done well they could have more potential than a low rake solution. But added other complications with increased rear suspension travel, increased centre of gravity, clearance issues and sealing around the floor etc.

For most of this time we saw a range of different rake angles across the grid, with RB generally having the highest rake but not always.

In 2017 the teams set up a suspension working group to better define the suspension rules as they were ambiguous. Merc pushed very hard for a switch to active ride as that would be be very effective for their low rake aero solution. Pretty much the rest of the grid was happy to just sort out clearer wording for the rules with a passive suspension approach, so this was adopted.

The latest aero reg changes have impacted the low rake solution more than the high rake. Merc will of course be working hard to fix their problems, and I am sure that they will, but it is a non trivial task as their whole aero solution will not work at a higher rake angle (unless they are extremely lucky) and so they are likely to need a lot of wind tunnel time to fix this.
 
Zagreus said:
I wonder what a fully Mercedes integrated George Russell might have achieved?
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Hard to say for sure, a lot of what makes HAM so good is his pace whilst not taking too much out of the tyres. I am sure that the pit stop tactics would have given RUS track position at both pit stops but I am less certain that he would have the same gaps to VER, especially the 8 seconds or so after the second stop. If it was say 6 seconds instead, VER would have caught him earlier with fresher tyres and more laps longer to try and get past which he might well have done.

Equally he might not, we have no evidence that RUS is any more or less capable of stretching out a gap whilst being easy on his tyres than HAM. Can't wait to find out next year when they go head to head.
 
Couple of nuggets since last we were here:

1st, sprint races are almost certainly going to be a thing this year Linky
2nd the Hulk confirmed as official reserve at Aston Martin (Green - how appropriate) which I interpret as giving VET the hurry up and get better or get out.
 
Yes looks like Aston Martin are hedging their bets hiring Hulk on a permanent reserve driver basis soon after Vet had a less than stellar first race .
 
Given that Nico Hülkenberg has never stood on the podium and Sebastian Vettel has had 53 wins and stood on the podium 121 times I would have thought there are better drivers that Aston Martin could have bought in for reserve driver in case Sebastian Vettel did not perform to expectation.
 
I think Hulk is rather well regarded as a driver. With a better crack or better fortune in his career he could probably have a fist full of points.
Of course VET has a better record... but he is seemingly a shadow of the driver he once was.
 
JensenHealey said:
I think Hulk is rather well regarded as a driver. With a better crack or better fortune in his career he could probably have a fist full of points.
Of course VET has a better record... but he is seemingly a shadow of the driver he once was.
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When you start feeling sorry or embarrassed for someone struggling at something they once did so well, then you know it’s time for that person to move on and make way for someone else.
Contrast Seb v Alonso, the latter would still be a title contender in a decent car is older than Seb so it’s not an age thing. Even Lewis is older than Seb.
I wish he’d get out before we see Mr Stroll moving him on.
 
I am not sure why VET did not retire from F1 after ferrari as he was clearly not enjoying his racing as I would imagine he has enough money to do so . Raikonnen has carried on when he could retire but he really does seem to be still enjoying himself and does a good job with a less then competitive car
 
Fascinating interview with Toto Wolff by The High Performance Podcast team that tells you a lot about Toto the man and how the current Merc team operates based on how he manages things. It's not a technical interview in any way so don't expect anything like that. In a nutshell, Toto talks about how success is all about people, values and teamwork. It might not sound like it's going to be an interesting conversation but, when Toto talks, it's compelling. Fwiw, the interviewers ask some great questions so credit to them as well!


EDIT: Based on everything he says in the video, I reckon Bottas and Hamilton will continue to be Mercedes drivers as long as they keep on doing enough to bring home the constructors championship (assuming both want to keep on driving for Mercedes, of course) because Toto seems to value stability and predictability over change and uncertainty. All of which is to say George Russell might have to wait till Hamilton retires before he gets a seat in a Mercedes and/or if Mercedes lose the constructors championship. No way of knowing for sure but the way in which he talks about the disharmony between Hamilton and Rosberg makes me think he'll stick with the status quo as long as it continues to bring success.
 
windhoek said:
Fascinating interview with Toto Wolff by The High Performance Podcast team that tells you a lot about Toto the man and how the current Merc team operates based on how he manages things.
snip
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Thanks for posting, I will watch later on, looks great.
 
Derek, thanks for posting the podcast link.

I have summarised some comments from talking to the people that actually do the work at Mercedes (to provide a different view as Toto is managing such a big organisation I think that he is losing touch with some of the team), and it is very clear that things are not that rosy at Merc at the moment:

  1. Lewis is having to work harder to get the car round due to the handling problems that the Merc currently has.

  2. The long run laptime degradation shows that the Merc degrades its tyres much earlier than the RBR. Something that Mercs have not done for sometime as one of the design objectives was to operate the tyres more effectively than other teams for years and years.

  3. Whilst I am confident that Merc will sort this out, the budget cap has caused them considerable problems. With no clear path through it. The applied science company that was set up to take Merc employees from the F1 team does not have a clear development path, structure or objective. A few people (often very good people, see point 4.) being made redundant every week for months now.

  4. Merc have promoted some toxic people (they are the arseholes that Toto talks about not having in his team... Which are easily identified by the people that do the work...) to positions of power and responsibility. This is damaging moral and performance of the whole team. In part as they are selecting who are made redundant and so do so to make their power base stronger.

  5. Whilst the Honda powerplant does appear to have improved considerably (both RBR and STR have improved overall performance considerably), Merc have gone backwards with their chassis. Which has resulted in the current situation at the race track.
  6. Morale there is even lower that I expected due to points 3 and 4 above. With many people who build the cars and make the parts aware that many of them will be made redundant as the team adapts to the budget for 2021. On the design side people know that some will be made redundant once the 2022 car is designed.
  7. With further budget cap reductions in 2022 and 2023, they will have to make more people redundant.
  8. Toto Wolf is well placed to lead them through this, but it will be a very big challenge for him.
 
I think the Merc era has definitely peaked, just like his decision to leave Mclaren I think Lewis will time his decision to jack it in at Merc perfectly, I'd wager at the end of the current season.
 
Been thinking about Lewis and the future. Strikes me that he would very much like to get 100 wins/100 poles/8 championships and that is probably his remaining goal in the sport. Hence if he does that this year I fully expect him to retire as he has plenty of other things he wants to achieve outside of F1 most prevalently in anti-racism work and raising awareness re. the environment.

If, however, he doesn't win his 8th this year then I would not be surprised to see him take a sabbatical year in 2022 and come back when he knows the pecking order of the teams under the new regulations being introduced in 2022. Let's be honest, despite protestations from team bosses to the contrary, having Lewis in your car guarantees the sponsors will come flocking and your team will more often than not be on the front of every media related item about F1. He could pretty much choose which team he drives for and go for that eighth title with the best on the grid.

I guess we will see.
 
If he doesn't win 8th WC this year, I think he would struggle. Things move on quickly and a sabbatical would be risky. Besides he might find life away from it fills quickly with other stuff. He's definitely on for the 100 poles/wins.
 
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