I just read
one of my own posts from last February and wanted to check on how it stood up:
Even if this turns into a pandemic, while it for sure will have tragic consequences, even the five million deaths per year number from some posts ago is the the same as the number of deaths to stroke yearly. Where is the panic about the stroke pandemic?
There was just a press conference by the Finnish government, where they estimated that if this does turn into a pandemic, an estimated 10% of Finland's population would be affected and around 15% of those would need care in a hospital. It was stated that the plans and resources available are able to deal with that.
Eventually this flu will become one of the multitude of viruses that tour the world as part of the seasonal flu strains, just as the swine flu did.
Well it did turn into a pandemic. Finland has done very well compared to other countries but even here some estimations were off the mark.
Today, assuming an uncertain number of undiscovered cases, especially in spring when the testing capacity was not yet available, we have probably passed the 10% mark of the Finnish population infected somewhere around the holiday season. I could not find any hospitalisation statistics, but my gut feeling is that 15% of the infected needing to be hospitalised was overestimated. I also wrote affected, not infected, obviously just about everyone has been affected due to lockdown policies.
If we had not had the lockdown measures, the number of people infected would obviously have been far greater, so I definitely underestimated how dangerous the virus was. Another unknown at the time factor are that some of the infected get long-term side-effects which one does normally get from a seasonal influenza.
Experts are still saying that we will probably never completely rid ourselves of the virus, so it seems likely that it will indeed tour the world for the foreseeable future and as successful viruses do, end up evolving into something less dangerous as time goes along.
Looking at world-wide deaths at this time and assuming we will get it under control via vaccinations during 2021, the coronavirus pandemic looks to end up about as serious as the
Asian and Hong-Kong flus of the 50s and 60s. They both killed something like 1-4 million people, but obviously out of a total population that was less than half of what we have today. Also today the case fatality rate would be lower due to improvements in health care, but on the other hand the world today is much more connected and the virus could spread a lot faster than back then. I guess that if the coronavirus pandemic had happened in the 50s it would have been the worst pandemic we would have experienced since the 1918 Spanish Flu.
EDIT: When I talk about seriousness, I just consider deaths. We can still mess it up and not manage to vaccinate the population of poor countries and have COVID still be killing people in large numbers in 2022, in which case it will clearly end up more serious than the 50s and 60s flus.
EDIT 2: Math is hard, we are at 0.8% of the population having had confirmed COVID, not 8%.. that means we probably crossed 1% actually somewhere around the holidays or a bit before.