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Coronavirus - the new strain XV

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Tony L said:
That is a truly horrific death figure, just terrible. One can only hope it is the top of the curve, but I suspect Johnson’s idiocy over Christmas probably has even more to deliver.

PS I notice no admissions figure...
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No nothing on admissions today so far - either they've peaked or the hospitals are saturated though. The death figures point more at saturation perhaps...
 
mandryka said:
But it's not! A large part of the England has been locked down since the week before Xmas.
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A few restrictions do not make a lockdown, this is the nearest and it still isn't the same as the first one. Which itself was not as serious as those in much of Europe.
 
Maybe. I just fear that the new variant is such a different beast that the previous winning formula is now close to being ineffective. And we still haven't heard from Porton Down about the efficacity of the AZ vaccine on it.




Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
In name only, I fear. The prospect of 5 days at Christmas sent people shopping in their droves. And plenty of mixing happened in that 1 day (well, Boris said one day, but nobody's going to mind if we make it two, and if we're going to catch it, we'll have caught it by then anyway. And for the same reason, we can drop in on our Sid and Mabel on the way back...)
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Tony L said:
That’s my fear. If things carry on at this rate I suspect people will be dying on trolleys, in ambulances etc before even being seen.
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I think they already are just from looking at the figures. They'll be people dying at home too.
 
hc25036 said:
Local news this morning was a GP complaining that the superhub is sending letters to her patients offering vaccination to those who are already booked for vaccination in the GP surgery or who have already been vaccinated. Confused patients are phoning the surgery and tying up their time trying to sort it out. Seems that GP and the hub are working from different patient lists. The GP also told of doses being wasted because patients are not turning up having gone to the hub.

Errors like this are inevitable and should have been foreseen. On the other hand, better to be trying too hard I suppose...
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I had a flu jab at my GP then got a general NHS letter asking me to book another flu jab a month later.

Stephen
 
gavreid said:
My wife's grannie is stuck in a care home in Normandy. She turned 100 last year just as this all started and they've managed to keep her alive so far. She pretty well locked in her room - it can't be any kind of life.
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I've worked for folk here who've not been out the door for months, hopefully your relative gets vaccinated shortly.
 
Good Evening All,

Utterly depressing figure for deaths in the last 24hrs. Would love to see a breakdown of where it is thought these poor people acquired the virus in the first place.

I remain convinced failure to observe the simple rules still lies behind the majority but am still waiting on proof positive other causes are more dominant.

I'll be heading for my 5th pre-employment COVID test next Tuesday.........

Regards

Richard
 
Richard Lines said:
Good Evening All,

Utterly depressing figure for deaths in the last 24hrs. Would love to see a breakdown of where it is thought these poor people acquired the virus in the first place.

I remain convinced failure to observe the simple rules still lies behind the majority but am still waiting on proof positive other causes are more dominant.

I'll be heading for my 5th pre-employment COVID test next Tuesday.........

Regards

Richard
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BoJo's COVID Christmas probably.
 
mandryka said:
Maybe. I just fear that the new variant is such a different beast that the previous winning formula is now close to being ineffective. And we still haven't heard from Porton Down about the efficacity of the AZ vaccine on it.
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I must admit I've been pondering whether even the original advice over social distancing, which people are still too bloody impatient to follow in supermarkets based on my shopping experiences, is sufficient to prevent airborne transmission given a new variant that could be 70% more transmissible.

I'm basically a hermit at present...
 
It takes 4-5 days to incubate Covid, and the sting in the tail (if there is one) often emerges at abut day 10 of symptomatic disease, so roughly a fortnight after infection. So we should hopefully be at the peak of anything caused by Xmas get togethers, about now. Just remains to see how much of a blip comes from NYE, but hopefully the trend will be clearly down after the weekend.
 
If I remember correctly, the Guardian reckoned that about 45% of people who had planned a "come one, come all" Xmas event had it as planned. This can't have helped.
 
gavreid said:
No, cases dropped by about a third in a week during November, I'm not going to look at the exact number but 7% is tiny
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It's complicated and I'm not sure I understand it at all. Here's the cases in November (specimen date)
Nov 5 23751
Nov 12 24459
Nov 19 17784
Nov 26 14459
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But look at the cases for March

March 23 2327
March 30 4269
Apr 6 5,275
Apr 13 4,174
Apr 20 4,854
Apr 27 4,703
May 4 3,382
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My only guess is that the rate of decline of cases is dependent on the prevalence at the start of the lockdown, I don't know what the growth rate was at the start of the lockdowns in March and November. Anyway, looking at the numbers for March has made me feel a bit more reassured about what's happening now.
 
Andrew L Weekes said:
I must admit I've been pondering whether even the original advice over social distancing, which people are still too bloody impatient to follow in supermarkets based on my shopping experiences, is sufficient to prevent airborne transmission given a new variant that could be 70% more transmissible.

I'm basically a hermit at present...
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My feeling is the UK government have consistently ignored scientific evidence on aerosol transmission. Basically they got it wrong, didn’t learn, and as a result have created a situation where the virus raged out if control and tens of thousands are dying needlessly. Yet still they lie, evade and bluster assuming some dickhead pole-climbing Tory politician somehow has equivalence to a virologist, epidemiologist or whatever. The arrogance on show is just astonishing to me. Towards the end of 2018-start 2019 they should just have STFU and followed scientific advice. It was out there as I managed to follow it! They didn’t. Because Boris ****ing Johnson.
 
mandryka said:
It's complicated and I'm not sure I understand it at all. Here's the cases in November (specimen date)



But look at the cases for March




My only guess is that the rate of decline of cases is dependent on the prevalence at the start of the lockdown, I don't know what the growth rate was at the start of the lockdowns in March and November. Anyway, looking at the numbers for March has made me feel a bit more reassured about what's happening now.
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It was impossible to infer the true rate back then because testing was the limiting factor on both occasions. The March lockdown was tighter, now we have more than 50% of kids going to school for example and we're in a different season. I can only conclude that the current measures are insufficient to reduce R significantly below 1.
 
gavreid said:
I can only conclude that the current measures are insufficient to reduce R significantly below 1.
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Why did it take so long for the March 23 lockdown to bring down the number of new cases?

gavreid said:
now we have more than 50% of kids going to school for example and we're in a different season..
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Oh, have you seen the figures then? I know there's all sorts of reports knocking around twitter and suchlike about individual schools. But I didn't know the attendance figures had been made public.
 
mandryka said:
Why did it take so long for the March 23 lockdown to bring down the number of new cases?



Oh, have you seen the figures then? I know there's all sorts of reports knocking around twitter and suchlike about individual schools. But I didn't know the attendance figures had been made public.
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What would you put it at? Or is it something we shouldn't talk about, let alone indulge in informed speculation?
 
ff1d1l said:
What would you put it at? Or is it something we shouldn't talk about, let alone indulge in informed speculation?
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There was someone who posted here a few days ago, I’m sorry I forget his name, his avatar is Terry Thomas. He’s a governor of a little primary. He said that schools in March had an occupancy target of 20% max during the March lockdown, and that he would investigate whether there was a target now. In the discussion it sounded like where a parent came to the school and said that their home wasn’t fit for remote working, the head had the discretion to refuse. This was just an informal conversation here, you understand. I haven’t looked into it further at all.

It may be 50% on average for all I know of course! I want to say that I don’t know what to think about the rights and wrongs of the new rules for access to schools in lockdown, I’m just not clear about it.
 
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