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Coronavirus - the new strain XII

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farfromthesun said:
Really good visual explainer here: https://english.elpais.com/society/...he-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html
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If that's right it makes sense of something I read the other day, that restaurants can remain open with correct ventilation. Big cost for restaurants of course.

The schools scenario considered an infected teacher. This may become less relevant with rapid testing. The issue seems to me to be more about infected students.

I'm not confident about all the references to masks because they don't (unless I missed it) say what type of mask, how worn and how frequently changed.
 
Good Morning All,

christray said:
Merkel admits track and trace is failing so the uk has no chance.
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Hasn't the German T&T been held up as a part of the reason Germany was doing so well? Does anybody know how and why it failed? If they can't make it work then yes I guess we have little hope.

Regards

Richard
 
mandryka said:
If that's right it makes sense of something I read the other day, that restaurants can remain open with correct ventilation. Big cost for restaurants of course.

Schools have two opportunities: ventilation and frequent changes of classroom. Not easy to implement, but if this is here to stay . . .
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It summarises everything that I've been explaining/arguing here for months. Schools and workplaces are the problem, i.e. where you have the same people in the same spaces. Remember those models are for a few hours, extend that to two or three days and everyone is infected. You have to get the source out of the space as quickly as possible, so effective T&T has to be the top priority.
 
gavreid said:
It summarises everything that I've been explaining/arguing here for months. Schools and workplaces are the problem, i.e. where you have the same people in the same spaces. Remember those models are for a few hours, extend that to two or three days and everyone is infected. You have to get the source out of the space as quickly as possible, so effective T&T has to be the top priority.
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I just came back because I had another thought about schools and edited the post.
 
Covid is shifting 'the public's' attitude towards benefits...

"More members of the public now agree with the statement: “benefits are too low and cause hardship” than those who believe benefit levels are too high and discourage work, according to the British Social Attitudes Survey, reversing a hardening of views on social security that dates back to the late 1990s."

https://www.theguardian.com/society...-benefits-at-highest-level-for-20-years-study

I don't want to go off topic but there is some evidence that attitudes towards immigration may be softening too. I've not read the full report in detail this year.
 
gavreid said:
Covid is shifting 'the public's' attitude towards benefits...

"More members of the public now agree with the statement: “benefits are too low and cause hardship” than those who believe benefit levels are too high and discourage work, according to the British Social Attitudes Survey, reversing a hardening of views on social security that dates back to the late 1990s."

https://www.theguardian.com/society...-benefits-at-highest-level-for-20-years-study

I don't want to go off topic but there is some evidence that attitudes towards immigration may be softening too. I've not read the full report in detail this year.
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I think a lot of normally comfortable and secure people have realised how precarious that actually is, and that actually, it could be them. That does change one's perspective. It shouldn't, but it does.
 
Two useful charts for those wondering why we haven't yet locked down nationally, and why the Conservatives seem so relaxed about culling their voter base:

50543958942_9055179022_z.jpg


50543957072_fdf6dbab28_z.jpg
 
tiggers said:
'Critical stage' with 96,000 a day getting COVID-19 as more stringent action needed, scientists say

Highlights:

Nearly 100K a day getting it
R well over 2 in London and other areas of England
1 in 36 people in Yorkshire/Humber has it
Current approach is not working.
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At the rate of 100k a day being infected now and cases doubling every 9 days we’ll be at 6.4 million new cases a day by Christmas. I know it’s not as simple as that but it seems the government has resurrected the herd immunity approach, even as scientists are warning that the level of antibodies post-infection declines rapidly so there is no guarantee if you’ve had it you won’t get it again.
 
gavreid said:
Yes. How do they continue to justify the no masks at school guidance?
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On the basis of current evidence, in light of the mitigating measures education settings are taking, and the negative impact on communication, face coverings will not generally be necessary in the classroom even where social distancing is not possible. There is greater use of the system of controls for minimising risk, including through keeping in small and consistent groups or bubbles, and greater scope for physical distancing by staff within classrooms. Face coverings can have a negative impact on learning and teaching and so their use in the classroom should be avoided.
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When an area moves to the local COVID alert level ‘high’ or ‘very high’, in education settings where year 7 and above are educated, face coverings should be worn by adults (staff and visitors) and pupils when moving around indoors, such as in corridors and communal areas where social distancing is difficult to maintain. As in the general approach, it will not usually be necessary to wear face coverings in the classroom, where protective measures already mean the risks are lower, and they may inhibit teaching and learning.
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This has gone unexamined by both unions and media as far as I know, at least in public.

(NB in France masks have been obligatory in schools for all adults and children over 11 since September. It doesn't seem to have been very effective. They have now made it a requirement for children over 6. I am not sure what to think about all of this, I have not been able to come to a confident conclusion about mask wearing generally, let alone in schools. The problem is to do it safely and effectively, rather than just make a pointless gesture . . . )
 
zarniwoop said:
At the rate of 100k a day being infected now and cases doubling every 9 days we’ll be at 6.4 million new cases a day by Christmas. I know it’s not as simple as that but it seems the government has resurrected the herd immunity approach, even as scientists are warning that the level of antibodies post-infection declines rapidly so there is no guarantee if you’ve had it you won’t get it again.
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Yep, it's just absolutely insane especially as we now know herd immunity will not work. We are just going to end up with a good percentage of the population having the virus at any one time, large numbers of deaths every week and lot of Long Covid sufferers. The government keeps talking about the economy, but having people dying, off work long term and short term isn't going to be great either especially coupled with people like me (mid-50s) who will just no longer bother with pubs, restaurants, cinema, theatre, live sport etc.

It's such a flawed approach, but why are we surprised. Kendrick was saying this morning how a national lockdown is not the right approach, but the regional approach is simply not working. I'm not sure how long they can keep the blinkers on for, but nothing surprises me with this lot.
 
A thorough lockdown through November would get infection levels back in the hundreds and give test and trace a chance for an opened up December.
 
Richard Lines said:
Good Morning All,



Hasn't the German T&T been held up as a part of the reason Germany was doing so well? Does anybody know how and why it failed? If they can't make it work then yes I guess we have little hope.

Regards

Richard
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She stated at a press conference yesterday that the system had become overwhelmed and was unable to cope,hence the minor shutdown that was being introduced.
 
christray said:
She stated at a press conference yesterday that the system had become overwhelmed and was unable to cope,hence the minor shutdown that was being introduced.
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Which throws our farcical system into even sharper relief.

Johnson et. al. just have no idea of the resources they need to throw into this, never mind know how to actually do what’s right.

Even his ‘moonshot’ isn’t the right approach. I despair.

Stephen
 
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