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Coronavirus - the new strain XII

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The moral seems to be that there’s a really easy quick fix which could make centralised test and trace more effective - just don’t withhold the phone number!

Of course there isn't.

But a Government that trusted and properly funded local Government, that believed in and properly funded the NHS and gave contracts for PPE and IT to people who knew what they were doing rather than Serco and various sweet-making companies would help.

Also a Government that did not think spending public money on public benefits was anathema would mean that resources would have been allocated, and continue to be allocated, when required.

Oh, and a Government that was not 'relaxed' about kids going hungry is always a benefit.

Stephen
 
The moral seems to be that there’s a really easy quick fix which could make centralised test and trace more effective - just don’t withhold the phone number!
Really?
That is your take from this?
This just goes to show that a local 'feet on the ground' approach is the best way to track and trace, which is what a lot of experts have been saying since March.
This is how outbreaks have been dealt with for hundreds of years but this gov would rather pay millions to outsourcing companies run by friends and family.
 
This just goes to show that a local 'feet on the ground' approach is the best way to track and trace, which is what a lot of experts have been saying since March.

Surely not only feet on the ground? I mean you'd need rather a lot of feet.

But yes, a combination of call centre and feet sounds promising, and is what we seem to be getting in fact.
 
Nottinghamshire in lockdown from Friday. My daughter’s locked in Sheffield. Looking very ominous as a few hours ago Bassetlaw appeared exempt.But next Monday, the end of my isolation, I can journey back to my workplace in West Yorkshire that has just been decimated with Covid.All being well. It’s a funny old world!
 
That’s not good news and I can imagine it’s worrying for you.

Why did it take 8 days to find out? Was it that someone in her group presented symptoms, applied for a test straight away, and it took 8 days to get it done and get the results and let you know?

I think someone attended when she should have been isolating, they're being a bit cagey about it...
 
Dudley & Shropshire now added to 'Tier 2" - not that it will make any difference to me / our family.
We never really left the first 'lockdown' in any significant manner.
Thats another 4M + in extended measures.
 
It’s been a rough week but I feel I may be turning a corner. I still have viscous neurological pains that are depriving me of sleep but I think I may be getting through. My wife and son seem to be showing symptoms but are managing. It’s the pain in my joints and fatigue that have hindered my recovery. I’m hopeful and expect to see improvement over the next couple of days. I’m lucky to have family and friends around me and that has minimised the anxiety. Thanks for asking my Lord.
 
It’s been a rough week but I feel I may be turning a corner. I still have viscous neurological pains that are depriving me of sleep but I think I may be getting through. My wife and son seem to be showing symptoms but are managing. It’s the pain in my joints and fatigue that have hindered my recovery. I’m hopeful and expect to see improvement over the next couple of days. I’m lucky to have family and friends around me and that has minimised the anxiety. Thanks for asking my Lord.
Good to hear this - thanks for updating us. Best wishes.
 
It's exponential with a doubling time of 14 days...
That's what the admissions data suggests. The "model" line is based on the near-linear growth at the start of the second wave.

Anyway, I was joking really, though now I wonder if it might be useful to fit an exponential curve to the admissions data and call it "revised model" or similar. That might help us see if the lockdown measures are having a noticeable impact.
 
That's what the admissions data suggests. The "model" line is based on the near-linear growth at the start of the second wave.

Anyway, I was joking really, though now I wonder if it might be useful to fit an exponential curve to the admissions data and call it "revised model" or similar. That might help us see if the lockdown measures are having a noticeable impact.

Here's a log plot

 
France has decided to lockdown, non essential retail closed, you need an "attestation" to leave the house, schools stay open including 6th form colleges (lycées), you can visit old people's homes, homeworking encouraged.
 
France has decided to lockdown, non essential retail closed, you need an "attestation" to leave the house, schools stay open including 6th form colleges (lycées), you can visit old people's homes, homeworking encouraged.

Although I'm not a natural Macron supporter, I thought he was very good tonight. He made out very clearly what the challenges were, what the options were, why most of them were inadequate and why he'd made the decisions he had. Also how he was continuing to consult european colleagues so that they could work together and learn from each other. Also what the gov't had learnt from the first lockdown and how they were going to tweak things for the second. No bluster. Just mastery of his brief. No dogma, just that, it's hard for many of us, but given the best advice, this is what needs to be done.
A good explanation of how things are different from the first round, where things were largely confined to certain regions that were badly contaminated, whereas now the virus is widely spread throughout the country.
Oh for such maturity here.
 
"Other tier three rules include:

  • Fitness and dance studios, sports courts and swimming pools can also remain open, although it is "strongly advised" group indoor classes do not take place
  • Public buildings such as community centres, libraries and town halls are allowed to remain open to run activities such as childcare and support groups, but not for private hire, birthday parties and other social events
  • "Indoor entertainment and tourism venues" have to close, but cinemas, concert halls, ice rinks and theatres are not affected by the new rules"

Sounds like a big waste of time to me, and is more about being seen to be doing something rather than that something actually being useful.

Not to mention all the people travelling in and out of the area to work every day. Not a single thing will change aside from some businesses struggling even more.
 
Sounds like a big waste of time to me, and is more about being seen to be doing something rather than that something actually being useful.

That is certainly my viewpoint. Anything less than a lockdown isn’t a lockdown. The experiences in the past few pages from Del monaco and Gavreid highlight perfectly the transmission risk of schools and other public buildings being open. Arbitrarily closing a few classes of business will do little if anything when one factors the way the virus works and the typical human family groups and what incomprehensibly remains open. The government have to look at this logically from a transmission perspective if there is to be any attempt to curb exponential growth. The whole idea that children, university students etc are fine because they only get mild symptoms is just bullshit, they need to be viewed as a a key viral transport medium. I don’t want to get all computer geek, but it’s like looking at the top layer of the OSI model without the slightest clue about the lower levels. Maybe with really, really effective testing, track and trace etc something other than lockdown could be safe, but as it is we are just rearranging the deck-chairs. Basically at the moment it really is everyone for themselves - just stay away from risk if you have the ability to do so as the national strategy is clearly not working.
 
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