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Frustrated with science

Thank you, that's reassuring as few of us have a natural trust in businesses where their commercial interests are concerned.

There should be hope for future years (or decades anyway) given that the genome work was so fast compared to how it would have been several years ago. Maybe we'll have advances in other areas too so we can get to the slow testing part faster.

The testing part is always going to be the bottleneck. In the UK the first patient being injected was on the National News, and a fair few more will follow quickly as the researchers took a punt and did all the volunteer recruiting ahead of the vaccine being ready.

So far so good, but now we have to wait for at least 30 (according to an interview I heard this morning) of those volunteers to be infected in a situation where everyone is trying to avoid being infected. Normally, once those 30 succumb the data will be analysed and, assuming they are positive (which is by no means certain) then used to develop a much larger study to properly test the vaccine for efficacy and safety. Maybe there will be a shortcut given the urgency, but that study will be in an environment where infections are much fewer than now, and will need hundreds of volunteers and will take many months, even if corners are shaved.
 
So....not a cable thread? :confused:

Wrong direction.
Too many commas.

The Oxford comma is still controversial. However, starting a sentence with a conjunction is a wee bit sloppy. :)

I've only scanned the long posts above, but in one sense I also question the current scientific advice (if that's what it is), regarding masks. There can be no negatives about wearing masks; it may not be particularly useful as a preventive measure, but must, surely, provide a modicum of protection for the wearer and others. Even psychologically, it's a useful tool and if wearing masks could promote over confidence (which any sane adult would dismiss), a little bit of confidence is much better than constant apprehension.

The government are concerned about being able to supply, but this is one area where individuals don't need rocket science to knock up anything from a bandana to an elasticated mask. I think the government should promote the domestic fabrication of masks and publish some templates, though I believe some are already on Google.

I wear glasses, and every mask I've ever bought for decorating has occluded my vision by misting up my spec's. My wife's recent creation out of an old pillow case still does, but less so, but at least it's comfy.
 
Non-clinical masks give no significant protection to the wearer from catching a disease; their main function is to prevent other people catching your germs if you sneeze near them.

If coronaviruses were the culprit, she remembers thinking, “could they have come from our lab?”
I don't find that troubling. In fact, this question is the essence of the scientific approach. A scientist must be prepared (and permitted) to ask a question, even if the answer could end up making them look bad. It's an obvious follow-on question.

Watching something, and coming up with an idea to explain why it's happening is not science. Science is when you then come up with a way of comprehensively showing that your idea is stupid, and then go through the steps to show that you were, in fact, an idiot to think what you did. If you can't show that you were wrong, you tell other people, and they try to show that you were talking out of your hole.

The only answers that science can give you are "no" and "possibly", but that doesn't make for a good story, so the press (and the tabloid press particularly) have leapt on every "possibly" and turned it into a "breakthrough", and then not bothered to follow up when "possibly" turned into "actually, no". That's what gives the public the perception that scientists are more successful than they really are, and that the big problems are more-or-less solved...

(This also feeds into the enemy of scientific thought: the conspiracy theory. Why, the argument goes, if a problem is solved, do we not have the solution available today? The answer isn't "because They don't want you to", but rather "actually, we haven't solved that problem")
 
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The problem is essentially that people (including myself) who know very little about science are not in any sort of position to judge how well or badly scientists are doing in relation to Covid-19 (or anything else, for that matter). We don't know the right questions to ask, and are unable to understand, let alone evaluate any answers we may receive. Moreover, we are mostly governed by scientifically illiterate and innumerate politicians, who want scientists to provide simple answers to incredibly complex problems.
 
To borrow from George Burns, it's too bad that all the people who know how to run the country are busy driving taxicabs, cutting hair and posting stuff on the Internet.
 
I've only scanned the long posts above, but in one sense I also question the current scientific advice (if that's what it is), regarding masks. There can be no negatives about wearing masks; it may not be particularly useful as a preventive measure, but must, surely, provide a modicum of protection for the wearer and others. Even psychologically, it's a useful tool and if wearing masks could promote over confidence (which any sane adult would dismiss), a little bit of confidence is much better than constant apprehension.
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Here is some advice countering "there can be no negatives about wearing masks". Source is the NHS.
- Masks concentrate infection if any is encountered. This can change a situation where an individual sees a non-infective dose over a period of hours into one in which he accumulates an infective dose in a mask and then ingests it.
- When masks are donned and removed there is an elecated risk of handling a contaminated surface and of touching the face.
- Masks change the behaviour of individuals, as with any protective equipment. This is like the argument that cyclists in helmets ride more recklessly than those without. This is a fact, the debate centres around what effect this has on the overall risk.
tl;dr
It isn't as simple as we might like to think. In any complex situation there is a simple and obvious solution that is simple, obvious and wrong.
 
The problem is essentially that people (including myself) who know very little about science are not in any sort of position to judge how well or badly scientists are doing in relation to Covid-19 (or anything else, for that matter). We don't know the right questions to ask, and are unable to understand, let alone evaluate any answers we may receive. Moreover, we are mostly governed by scientifically illiterate and innumerate politicians, who want scientists to provide simple answers to incredibly complex problems.
Well put. There comes a point when someone not actively working in a field has to say, "Now, will you please explain your explanation?" As patent attorneys, we have a broad grasp of science and can turn our hands to all sorts of technologies. However, I am often confronted by really quite brilliant chemists and I have to struggle to comprehend what it is that they're trying to get across, and then put that in writing.

In the case of biology, it was only the day before yesterday that Crick and Watson gave us the double helix of DNA. Since then, we have made astonishing strides in understanding it. However, this is part of a system that has evolved over billions of years, and we still don't comprehend anything like all of it. While we make a chemical product by dumping stuff together, adding harsh reagents, cooking the living daylights out of it and then congratulating ourselves when we get a 50% yield, Mother Nature's reactions go to 100% completion at body temperature. It's all done by enzymes, immensely complex natural catalysts, things that looks like this:

1280px-Glucosidase_enzyme.png


In theory, it can take up 10 to the power of 6 configurations, in fact, it only ever takes up one - nobody knows why. I've even heard scientists say that it verges on the miraculous!

Because of all that we don't know, our treatments for disease verge on being sledgehammers used to crack walnuts. This is why pharmaceutical products have to go through clinical trials, to ensure that the stuff doesn't cure the disease by killing the patient, and to ensure that any side-effects aren't so extreme as to make the stuff practically unusable.

Cracking the structure of the Covid-19 virus was the easy bit. The questions then are (a) what sort of antibodies do we need to counter it? and (b) how do we generate these in the body? This is what a vaccine does. Some vaccines are denatured versions of the virus itself, but these don't always work. As a result, the whole business takes time. The OP was frustrated with the slow progress, but that's the way the business works, and there can be no other way, unless he is prepared to countenance the methods pioneered by Dr. Mengele in Auschwitz or the infamous Japanese Unit 731 in China.

Things can be worse - an old friend in Novartis took a compound from the laboratory bench to a registered drug. It only took 15 years! I suspect any vaccine will be somewhat quicker. And hopefully the thing won't mutate too much. When I was a kid, the big fear was polio, but the Salk vaccine finished that off, because the polio virus doesn't mutate. I can only hope that the thing doesn't mutate as rapidly as the cold or 'flu viruses, which is why they've never been cured.
 
I wonder if Paul has ever had a pointless argument with himself just to see if he could push himself to the brink of insanity.

Most sensible people, at least those not looking to argue solely for the sake of argument, would have read my original post to be an expansion of the oft-heard sentiment, "How is it we can send a man to the moon, but we can't cure the common cold." The point was simply that some problems, while difficult, can be solved through application of science. Others are elusive, sometimes surprisingly so, despite being the focus of legions of researchers.

Yes, "the" common cold is caused by a couple hundred strains of rhinoviruses, but this infectious disease of the upper respiratory tract is referred to in the singular. Usual point-scoring nitpickery on display.

I no longer engage with Paul directly. The day he called me a disingenuous liar in a climate change thread I put him on my jive turkey list. It's like ignore but saved for special people.

Joe
 
The point was simply that some problems, while difficult, can be solved through application of science. Others are elusive, sometimes surprisingly so, despite being the focus of legions of researchers.

Joe

Don't forget "there's no profit in it."

See also antibiotics. This is why we (in the west at least) don't see any real work on these guys .

bacteriophages-infecting-a-bacterium.jpg

Stephen
 
As we were talking moonshots, do the Moon landing sceptics think NASA faked landings 12-17 as well, created the Apollo 13 disaster and cancelled 18 because the special FX budget had run out?

Stephen
 
Here is some advice countering "there can be no negatives about wearing masks". Source is the NHS.
- Masks concentrate infection if any is encountered. This can change a situation where an individual sees a non-infective dose over a period of hours into one in which he accumulates an infective dose in a mask and then ingests it.
- When masks are donned and removed there is an elecated risk of handling a contaminated surface and of touching the face.
- Masks change the behaviour of individuals, as with any protective equipment. This is like the argument that cyclists in helmets ride more recklessly than those without. This is a fact, the debate centres around what effect this has on the overall risk.
tl;dr

Points taken, Steve. Only the first point, to my mind, could be relevant, and that is (if I read that correctly) that a 'passing' dose in open air might be less potent than one which falls onto a mask and which is then breathed in more than once. The bit I can't fathom is why should a virus be any more concentrated once deposited in either scenario though I can see that once deposited on a mask, breathing in through that humid cloth could be worse. I'm trying to work out what you meant to put instead of 'elecated' risk (elected?).

I, probably more than many people, touch their faces and/or spec's (I have a chronic allergy causing an itchy nose). The mask virtually obviates that risk during a SM shop. Your source is the NHS but my thinking is based upon widespread usage in the east (and increasingly now in the west) along with simple common sense. Of course there is likely to be a downside to wearing masks, but much of the world seems to think that the upsides outweigh any downside.

At least the scientists could surely agree on whether paper or cotton is better, but from what I read, the jury's still out on this one.
 
Points taken, Steve. Only the first point, to my mind, could be relevant, and that is (if I read that correctly) that a 'passing' dose in open air might be less potent than one which falls onto a mask and which is then breathed in more than once. The bit I can't fathom is why should a virus be any more concentrated once deposited in either scenario though I can see that once deposited on a mask, breathing in through that humid cloth could be worse. I'm trying to work out what you meant to put instead of 'elecated' risk (elected?).

I, probably more than many people, touch their faces and/or spec's (I have a chronic allergy causing an itchy nose). The mask virtually obviates that risk during a SM shop. Your source is the NHS but my thinking is based upon widespread usage in the east (and increasingly now in the west) along with simple common sense. Of course there is likely to be a downside to wearing masks, but much of the world seems to think that the upsides outweigh any downside.

At least the scientists could surely agree on whether paper or cotton is better, but from what I read, the jury's still out on this one.
Elecated = elevated. V and C are neighbours when you have fat fingers.
The concentration bit is based on the fact that any infection needs an infective dose. You cannot catch bubonic plague from one Yersinia pestis bacterium. Most organisms need a thousand or better. The jury is out on others, say Cholera, where there are studies that show extremely low doses, down to tens and maybe even less than 10 organisms, can result in infection. Consequently you can see that if you are sitting on a bus getting the odd inhaled virus it's unlikely to get you. However if you collect them all in a mask for hours and then manage to get them on your hands/nose/eyes all in one go, bad news. It's the difference between having a tot of whisky every hour over the day and slugging back a quarter bottle in 10 minutes. One of these will put you on your back.
Upsides outweighing downsides? That's the rub. Even the epidemiologists can't agree on that one.
 


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