Election night 2019 / aftermath

[tiggers]

Has everyone forgotten the coalition? That was Tories in all but name. It’s 15 years, not 10.

It's 10, the Tory/LD coalition took power in 2010.

 

[PsB]

Neither then. Great plan PSB, keep em coming.

I wouldn’t presume to suggest plans to you, Seanm. You have explained to us for many years how plans are all worked out to perfection already. Anyone thinking differently is an awful sensible Centrist. Eliminate!

If you really believe that the main decision for the opposition is whether to challenge the new government on racism OR on constitutional reform, go right ahead. (If you think that’s what my post was about, you didn’t read it properly. No biggy.) If you really think banging away at Red Tories for three more years will bring your lot victory, keep at it. It worked so well this time, didn’t it?

The old truism that defeat is the springboard for future victory applies if there is genuine introspection and analysis. With two defeats under its belt now, the LP led by the Corbyn line should be close to unbeatable at the next GE.

 

[Seanm]

A quick question for those Labour supporters who loath Corbyn and also for the more enthusiastic door knocking Labour supports.

Do you feel that the loathing, either your own or those you’ve spoken to on the doorstep, is based on Corbyn himself, or his policies?

Frothing right wingers need not apply

I didn’t hear that much, and it pretty much split personal/get Brexit done. Overall I heard less than in 2017, so I thought, well, not that big a deal. Others report more than 2017, but along lines similar to 2017: IRA, traitor, that kind of thing.

They always say the mistake parties make is to fight not this election but the last one. I think the problem here is that we didn’t do this: we treated 2017 as a sign that we’d already broken through in key areas and laid certain attack lines to rest. Seems more likely now that for those less engaged the attack lines were only now breaking through, after 2 and a half years’ constant repetition, and that people still hadn’t got the message that Labour had changed. And that is probably correct: at least, we haven’t changed in some of the ways that matter most to people. Lots of people now saying, Well, we tried change, now we need to change back! And that’s a really bad idea IMO.

 

[Marky-Mark]

Personally (and regretfully) I'd put his chances of reelection as rather higher than that.

You're probably right. When your president is engaged in a Twitter war with a Swedish teenager what could possibly be wrong with another 4 years?

 

[Alex S]

Apposite to have ‘foreverspin’ as the banner to this thread.

 

[Seanm]

I wouldn’t presume to suggest plans to you, Seanm. You have explained to us for many years how plans are all worked out to perfection already. Anyone thinking differently is an awful sensible Centrist. Eliminate!

If you really believe that the main decision for the opposition is whether to challenge the new government on racism OR on constitutional reform, go right ahead. (If you think that’s what my post was about, you didn’t read it properly. No biggy.) If you really think banging away at Red Tories for three more years will bring your lot victory, keep at it. It worked so well this time, didn’t it?

The old truism that defeat is the springboard for future victory applies if there is genuine introspection and analysis. With two defeats under its belt now, the LP led by the Corbyn line should be close to unbeatable at the next GE.

Naturally I don’t think any of those things, and of course I have to endure the crowing. But really, if you’ve got some ideas you go right ahead and share them.

 

[glancaster]

Yvette Cooper is tweeting like crazy. Cummings will be sharpening his knife to do a Killary on her if she lands the job.

Why bother? Governments win or lose elections, not oppositions. This one was an exception, as Johnson had been in post only a very short time.

Cummings will focus on delivering something reformist, a record to stand on next time. Details very hazy at the moment. If it fails, it won't be because of the opposition, as they are so weak in numbers; it will be self-inflicted failure *. If it succeeds, then they'll win. The opposition are irrelevant until the next election at best.

Doesn't mean others (e.g. Mail & Express) won't attack the next Labour leader regularly, but they do that anyway. I really think the government focus will be elsewhere.

Kind regards

- Garry

* my bet would be on an eventual falling out between Johnson and Cummings capsizing the whole boat, or possibly Gove will kill again. That triumvirate does not look strong and stable.

 

[cooky1257]

Clive Lewis for me,.articulate, smart, youthful, photogenic.

 

[doctorf]

The tories have been in power for nigh on 10 years so at what point did Labour lose that trust, what were they expected to do, they were in opposition?
A relentless media assault did for them/us, plus the fact Corbyn was an easy target and pretty bloody useless at PMQ's.

They chose a leader who had a history of disagreeing with most Labour policies over the previous 30 years. A man photographed and filmed with terrorists and murderers, including Hamas and the IRA. A man who appeared to do fvck all to stamp out antisemitism in the grassroots of the LP.
Interestingly, his position on Brexit was in tune with the very people in the north who voted Tory, but he didn’t have the support of his party to make it LP policy.

 

[gassor]

The tories have been in power for nigh on 10 years so at what point did Labour lose that trust, what were they expected to do, they were in opposition?
A relentless media assault did for them/us, plus the fact Corbyn was an easy target and pretty bloody useless at PMQ's.

If Corbyn was a football manager and Labour were his team at the Brexit stadium, fans would be chanting "You don't know what you're doing".

 

[deanf]

Momentum are three years into their ten year plan to take over the Labour Party, then the world. This latest episode is a mere blip for some i.e. when young people get old enough to vote and older right wing nasties die off it’ll all come good. Friday was spent calculating how many "left wing" MPs they have and how many are "right wing". If enough of them can grasp than Kier Starmer as PM is better than Jeremy Corbyn in opposition then there is hope.

There is the the little issue that some in the Labour Party will only vote for a woman. They are not insignificant in numbers!

The person who wins the leadership race could possibly be the one who tells the Unions they can have whatever they like.

Meanwhile, the Morning Star claim Tommy Robinson has joined the tories.

 

[notaclue]

Smug git Blair gets to win three elections and accurately predict exactly what would happen back in September:

"Without Brexit, winning an Election is tough, but with it in the mix, especially as No Deal, [Johnson] may gain support from people who otherwise would not entertain his premiership.
…
But [Corbyn] should see an Election before Brexit is decided, for the elephant trap it is.
After Brexit is resolved, an immediate election is right and necessary. And if Labour approaches the resolution of Brexit with the spirit of strategic cooperation it has shown recently, it will emerge with its standing and that of its leadership greatly enhanced.
…
If the Government tries to force an election now, Labour should vote against it.
The challenge, of such an Election is brutally clear.
Leave aside what is fair or unfair: no Opposition Leader or Party with these poll ratings has won an Election.
The 2017 result has inoculated the Labour Party against a realistic assessment of where it stands.
To be sure, an Election is a risk for the Tories. Each Tory candidate will have to sign up to No Deal. The Brexit Party is a one man unpredictable band. Scotland will be very tough.
But my bet is the Brexit Party will collapse to them.
The Labour Party at present will struggle; a resurgent Lib Dems will do well, but not well enough to govern. The Opposition vote will split. Under our system that delivers a comfortable Tory majority.
When you get to real world politics, it will be presented as: do you want Boris Johnson delivering Brexit plus a populist Tory programme or do you want to turn the country, its economy and security over to Jeremy Corbyn and his small group of acolytes from the far left?"

 

[cooky1257]

If Corbyn was a football manager and Labour were his team at the Brexit stadium, fans would be chanting "You don't know what you're doing".

The number of missed open goals and own goals had me up the wall in frustration.

 

[notaclue]

I have nothing personal against JC except that I have always said, from day one ,that he is unelectable .

On a more personal note..I don't even think he is even Cabinet material. His skills lie elsewhere I think.

He'd be ace on an anti-Zionist allotment. World class.

 

[Alex S]

Clive Lewis for me,.articulate, smart, youthful, photogenic.

Sadly his colour would work against him but his army/TA stuff for. (For me it’s the other way round but I don’t matter).

 

[Alex S]

JC new manager of Arsenal perhaps. They’re local.

 

[TheDecameron]

Four ? Surely just Nasti Patel ?

Raab, Patel, Kwertang, Truss.
Tinker, taylor, soldier, sailor.

 

[TheDecameron]

They chose a leader who had a history of disagreeing with most Labour policies over the previous 30 years. A man photographed and filmed with terrorists and murderers, including Hamas and the IRA. A man who appeared to do fvck all to stamp out antisemitism in the grassroots of the LP.
Interestingly, his position on Brexit was in tune with the very people in the north who voted Tory, but he didn’t have the support of his party to make it LP policy.

I know what you mean,

 

[Woodface]

Smug git Blair gets to win three elections and accurately predict exactly what would happen back in September:

"Without Brexit, winning an Election is tough, but with it in the mix, especially as No Deal, [Johnson] may gain support from people who otherwise would not entertain his premiership.
…
But [Corbyn] should see an Election before Brexit is decided, for the elephant trap it is.
After Brexit is resolved, an immediate election is right and necessary. And if Labour approaches the resolution of Brexit with the spirit of strategic cooperation it has shown recently, it will emerge with its standing and that of its leadership greatly enhanced.
…
If the Government tries to force an election now, Labour should vote against it.
The challenge, of such an Election is brutally clear.
Leave aside what is fair or unfair: no Opposition Leader or Party with these poll ratings has won an Election.
The 2017 result has inoculated the Labour Party against a realistic assessment of where it stands.
To be sure, an Election is a risk for the Tories. Each Tory candidate will have to sign up to No Deal. The Brexit Party is a one man unpredictable band. Scotland will be very tough.
But my bet is the Brexit Party will collapse to them.
The Labour Party at present will struggle; a resurgent Lib Dems will do well, but not well enough to govern. The Opposition vote will split. Under our system that delivers a comfortable Tory majority.
When you get to real world politics, it will be presented as: do you want Boris Johnson delivering Brexit plus a populist Tory programme or do you want to turn the country, its economy and security over to Jeremy Corbyn and his small group of acolytes from the far left?"

He didn't get any of that wrong, he probably knows what he's talking about.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

...we treated 2017 as a sign that we’d already broken through in key areas and laid certain attack lines to rest. Seems more likely now that for those less engaged the attack lines were only now breaking through, after 2 and a half years’ constant repetition, and that people still hadn’t got the message that Labour had changed. And that is probably correct: at least, we haven’t changed in some of the ways that matter most to people. Lots of people now saying, Well, we tried change, now we need to change back! And that’s a really bad idea IMO.

I think the mistake is in assuming that, having broken through and laid attack lines to rest, that is job done. The voting public appears to have a short memory, and limited critical faculties. Repetition of attack lines is likely to undo any break through achieved a while ago.
If you want to win, you have to offer people what they think they want. The task is to get them to want the stuff you intend to offer, ahead of time.
In the recent campaign, there were too many things on offer. People didn’t believe they were achievable, or affordable, and it led to a kind of paralysis of choice, like having a too big restaurant menu.
Better IMHO to offer fewer, more significant policies, and maybe suggest that the rest will build on that foundation in a second term, or maybe three years in.

Naturally I don’t think any of those things, and of course I have to endure the crowing. But really, if you’ve got some ideas you go right ahead and share them.

You’ve had a tough enough time without enduring any crowing. You don’t have to, you don’t owe anybody a penance for believing what you believe. But perhaps be open to taking some learning points?