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Choosing your leader

May did all that too: all the parties understand how this works. I would say May had some success with this: I met a lot of older voters, for instance, concerned about a prospective land value tax under Labour: this was one of many "dark ads" that the Tories paid for. They also managed to manipulate search results to push this "story" (which also appeared in local press: they understand that there is a relationship between old and new media) and bury stories damaging to themselves.

But as Woodface says, digital campaigning went much better for Labour, because their message was pushed online by grassroots digital campaigners who understand how it all works socially, and because they had a much more enthusiastic and digitally active audience. Cummings may be good at using data to target advertising (better than Labour? not necessarily), but he can't overcome the basic fact that young people hate the Tories and are not going to share their dismal message of fear and hate.
Worth pointing out that Cummings is not some grand master of social media, there are loads of people equally if not more qualified than he, he probably employs quite a few though.
 
Not sure why Cummings is seen as a mastermind of anything. And a social media campaign = a facebook campaign since when?
Look at the social media sites they own also. Google will also be a massive factor. Facebook is reported by trad media as a short hand for internet;)
 
Not sure why Cummings is seen as a mastermind of anything. And a social media campaign = a facebook campaign since when?

Cummings was in charge of the Vote Leave campaign, which won against most expectations, repeating the feat he also achieved with the NE assembly referendum. Facebook is not the only social network, but it is by far the dominant one, particularly amongst Tory voters.
 
Things would have to have changed *very* fundamentally for the Lib Dems to make 32 points: you'd basically have to move the existing residents out and ship in new ones.

They have. The Tories have moved very firmly into UKIP territory, which has certainly alienated huge numbers of educated middle-class/professional voters and Labour have wasted the past three years arguing amongst themselves about Brexit and anti-Semitism and lost all momentum (see what I did there). They have just totally failed to be a credible opposition and Corbyn is now the least popular party leader ever. Ever! The goal posts have moved, both main parties are now hugely damaged, which basically means the SNP, LDs and hopefully PC will do very well indeed. The Green voteshere will be hugely up too, but sadly they will be unlikely to translate that to seats.

I know you don’t agree, but elections are always won or lost in the middle-ground as that tends to be where the non-entrenched floating voters live, i.e. the right of Labour and left of the Tory party will define this election, as they always do. Those are the only people that flip position, and now the two main parties are so far apart/damaged they will migrate to Lib Dem, SNP, PC and Green rather than the polar opposite. I’m prepared to bet that for every UKIP/BP bigot Johnson takes he loses another voter from the other side of the party to the LDs. Same logic with Corbyn, he’s just not attracting people from the centre ground and no one trusts him on Brexit as we can all see he doesn’t mean what he says. A ‘conviction politician’ with zero conviction on the issue of the day. That is just not a good look!
 
They have. The Tories have moved very firmly into UKIP territory, which has certainly alienated huge numbers of educated middle-class/professional voters and Labour have wasted the past three years arguing amongst themselves about Brexit and anti-Semitism and lost all momentum (see what I did there). They have just totally failed to be a credible opposition and Corbyn is now the least popular party leader ever. Ever! The goal posts have moved, both main parties are now hugely damaged, which basically means the SNP, LDs and hopefully PC will do very well indeed. The Green voteshere will be hugely up too, but sadly they will be unlikely to translate that to seats.

I know you don’t agree, but elections are always won or lost in the middle-ground as that tends to be where the non-entrenched floating voters live, i.e. the right of Labour and left of the Tory party will define this election, as they always do. Those are the only people that flip position, and now the two main parties are so far apart/damaged they will migrate to Lib Dem, SNP, PC and Green rather than the polar opposite. I’m prepared to bet that for every UKIP/BP bigot Johnson takes he loses another voter from the other side of the party to the LDs. Same logic with Corbyn, he’s just not attracting people from the centre ground and no one trusts him on Brexit as we can all see he doesn’t mean what he says. A ‘conviction politician’ with zero conviction on the issue of the day. That is just not a good look!
This is what I'm talking about: it's armchair football manager stuff at worst (Worst Leader Eva!) and at best it treats politics like moves on a chess board, but it isn't engaging at all with fundamental shifts in society that make Labour a very obvious choice for lots of people and Lib Dems ... nothing at all.

As for the idea that elections are always won in the middle ground well there's of course a measure of truth to this because electoral success in a parliamentary democracy means forging alliances between different groups. But there are times when that absolutely doesn't mean some kind of split-the-difference watery fudge, and this is very obviously one of them. If you're looking for historical precedents this is much more 1979 than 2001 and the party that looks like it has solutions to some pretty pressing problems is going to be the one to win, regardless of how radical their stance might seem under different conditions. Apart from anything else Labour have *already* shifted the middle-ground very firmly to the left, such that their 2017 manifesto is basically going to look pretty centrist to most normal voters this time around (just not the press or the PLP)!
 
Finally, as @richgilb pointed out earlier today, if you want to stop Bexit, there is a much stronger case for voting Labour now than there was in 2017: Labour will offer a second referendum with Remain as an option.
Of course some of us will say it’s a shame they didn’t think of that in 2017. No need to respond, I know the answer would be ‘political suicide’ etc. (albeit not any more). I respect that viewpoint, I just don’t agree!

I’d like to have a chat on the portcullis with my Labour candidate about the party’s Brexit policies - in fact I’d invite him in for a brandy - but he’s too busy holding down a University professorship to go doorstepping. But I know from email conversations we have had he is closer to a Starmer position than a Corbyn one. And it was his interpretation of the Manifesto position on the subject that led me to vote Labour in 2017.

What about voting LibDem to stop Brexit? Won’t they revoke rather than offer a referendum?

Sorry if this is the wrong thread, I may have become confused as to which is a Brexit thread and which isn’t...
 
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This is what I'm talking about: it's armchair football manager stuff at worst (Worst Leader Eva!) and at best it treats politics like moves on a chess board, but it isn't engaging at all with fundamental shifts in society that make Labour a very obvious choice for lots of people and Lib Dems ... nothing at all.

The above is just echo chamber/activist denial I’m afraid. The simple fact is Corbyn has a -60% approval rating. No other UK leader has sunk to that depth. Neither Tory nor Labour have ever taken a less popular leader to an election win. These are all just facts. I don’t see Corbyn to be the one to buck that trend. He lost to Theresa May FFS! Johnson will come ahead of Corbyn, the only game in play is to prevent a Tory majority. Corbyn’s Labour as a political force are toast.
 
The above is just echo chamber/activist denial I’m afraid. The simple fact is Corbyn has a -60% approval rating. No other UK leader has sunk to that depth. Neither Tory nor Labour have ever taken a less popular leader to an election win. These are all just facts. I don’t see Corbyn to be the one to buck that trend. He lost to Theresa May FFS! Johnson will come ahead of Corbyn, the only game in play is to prevent a Tory majority. Corbyn’s Labour as a political force are toast.
This is just more of the same, isn’t it? “Echo chamber!” you shout, and then just dump a load of ungrounded opinion that might as well be bot-generated.

Seriously, what are the forces in play that are going to force a swing of more than 30 points to the Lib Dems in multiple constituencies? When has such a thing ever happened before? Why isn’t it more likely that if anyone actually falls for this transparent grift the result won’t just be a split remain vote, and another Tory MP?
 
Pointless arguing really if you don’t accept things like leader approval ratings etc. I’ll just point and giggle on Dec 13th! ;-) Same question again: do you honestly expect Corbyn to end up with more seats than his party has right now?

PS I just hope Corbyn has the dignity and integrity to step down immediately after leading his party to two defeats against hopelessly unpopular Tory governments. My fear is he’ll hang around and ensure the party can’t rebuild into something that could actually win an election.
 
Well if I were a working class Brit wanting to remain I know what I'd do, and that's vote for Labour. You get another bite at the referendum cherry and a raft of badly needed radical policies that would help improve the lives of tens of millions.

Far better than wasting a vote on a Lib-Dem party that cannot possibly succeed in revoking article 50, is full of right-wing MPs and is offering nothing but more of the same neoliberal shite that has the country in the state it's in.
 
Pointless arguing really if you don’t accept things like leader approval ratings etc. I’ll just point and giggle on Dec 13th! ;-) Same question again: do you honestly expect Corbyn to end up with more seats than his party has right now?

PS I just hope Corbyn has the dignity and integrity to step down immediately after leading his party to two defeats against hopelessly unpopular Tory governments. My fear is he’ll hang around and ensure the party can’t rebuild into something that could actually win an election.
Well what does it mean to "accept" leader approval ratings? They were *worse* when the 2017 GE was called, and Corbyn went on to take Labour from 30% of the popular vote to 40%, so I don't accept that they have any predictive value in this context, no. I certainly wouldn't want to organise the party around them. Basically I think they're meaningless bollocks designed to give those who believe in such things something to fixate on. You may as well read a horoscope. Have a look at what's real instead. Tell me what are the real forces that are going to move the Lib Dems from 12% of the vote to 47%.

Yes, I expect Labour to gain seats.
 
In line with the Monster Raving Loony Party past manifesto, I shall vote for whichever party will give Nectar points on Income Tax paid.
 
Tell me what are the real forces that are going to move the Lib Dems from 12% of the vote to 47%.

Where did I ever say the LDs would get 47% of the vote? I am expecting them to play a substantial part in a hung parliament, not to gain a majority. How they play seat to seat will obviously depend on the demographic of that specific seat, but in many fairly affluent middle-class and student areas they will likely do very well indeed as huge swathes of people will be put off by both Johnson’s ugly Trump/UKIP popularism and Corbyn’s three-year Brexit/anti-Semitism good/bad/maybe dither-fest. They will do well also because they have a clear and focused Brexit message, i.e. they are the obvious anti-Brexit choice as no one believes the words Corbyn so obviously gags and chokes on now he’s finally flipped state to remain(ish).
 
Where did I ever say the LDs would get 47% of the vote? I am expecting them to play a substantial part in a hung parliament, not to gain a majority. How they play seat to seat will obviously depend on the demographic of that specific seat, but in many fairly affluent middle-class and student areas they will likely do very well indeed as huge swathes of people will be put off by both Johnson’s ugly Trump/UKIP popularism and Corbyn’s three-year Brexit/anti-Semitism good/bad/maybe dither-fest. They will do well also because they have a clear and focused Brexit message, i.e. they are the obvious anti-Brexit choice as no one believes the words Corbyn so obviously gags and chokes on now he’s finally flipped state to remain(ish).
We've been talking about tactical voting and Labour/Tory marginals where Lib Dems are standing high profile candidates, and getvoting.org (Best for Britain) has been advising people to vote tactically for the Lib Dems, often in constituencies where they are 30 points or more behind the Tories, and Labour just a few. You've been maintaining that this is a good tactic, because everything is wide open, lots of remainers in these areas etc.

I've been arguing that it's not a good tactic. The 2017 election is a better guide to the 2019 election than some dodgy polling fed into a proprietorial algorithm.
 
I am not sure how accurate leader approval ratings are, it depends upon how the question is framed. I think the Labour leadership team is merely a happy accident, would probably do better with McDonnell as leader & Corbyn concentrating on grass roots. Most people will be better off under a Labour govt if they actually deliver some of their manifesto, partularly pertaining to tuition fees & prescription charges.

Only viable option is to vote Labour & hope for the best
 
We've been talking about tactical voting and Labour/Tory marginals where Lib Dems are standing high profile candidates, and getvoting.org (Best for Britain) has been advising people to vote tactically for the Lib Dems, often in constituencies where they are 30 points or more behind the Tories, and Labour just a few. You've been maintaining that this is a good tactic, because everything is wide open, lots of remainers in these areas etc.

I've been arguing that it's not a good tactic. The 2017 election is a better guide to the 2019 election than some dodgy polling fed into a proprietorial algorithm.
Aarronn Banks will probably have five tactical voting websites by the time of the election.
 


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