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Vast Brexit thread merge part IV

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matthewr said:
Some more analysis on the Letwin amendment here:

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185233043491115015
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It sounds like it should sink any ERG crash, burn and cash-in the no-deal shorts strategy, which might be why some of that crowd are still on the fence about voting for Johnson’s deal. I sincerely hope it passes as it does look to remove some serious risks from the picture.

Stunsworth said:
Are you still up for the bet - you donate £50 to charity if 6 or more Labour MPs vote with the Tories, Tony (via me) pays £50 if fewer than 6 vote with them?
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I hardly ever bet, but if I did I’d never do it at 1/1!

PS My betting history is very short, but quite promising so far: two promotional free tenners at PaddyPower, the first on the last election resulting in a hung parliament at 7/1 (i.e. I pocketed £80), and the other free tenner on an election this year also at 7/1. I’m hoping that one comes home too!
 
I don't feel sorry for the DUP, but the look on their faces as they realised that Johnson had shafted them.

19860404-0-image-a-28_1571351186309.jpg


Stephen
 
HarryB said:
As I’ve said many times, Brexit is a Tory creation from start to finish.
First a weak and incompetent Prime Minister put forward the referendum. He did that to protect Tory seats from Farage and to appease the right wing scumbags in his party.

Then the incompetent Mrs May went to the country thinking she could get a big majority, failed and did a disgusting deal with the DUP just to cling onto power.

Now we have the ERG, the fascist wing of the Tory Party backing a deal that’s going to make their rich Tory backers even more money.

All Tories are pure scum. That’s their MP’s, their activists and anyone who votes for them. The party of misery for every working class person.
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And was it all Tories who actually put the tick in the box? Labour wouldn't be in such a mess if half of their supporters hadn't voted leave.
 
HarryB said:
I have a good mate who is a Labour MP. He tells me the whips are not wasting too much of their time on a handful of lost causes but they’re being ‘advised’ that an abstention is the only choice for them if they want a future in the Labour Party. And even that might not suffice. His words not mine.

He also tells me he knows of four Tories who will definitely vote against the deal.
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You write plainly and concisely.

I enjoy your candid analysis.
 
I would vote for this glittery turd May deal.

I sadly don't see any path to a Remain victory, and there is a fear that a No Deal Brexit could still be achieved through fair-means-or-foul.

This is the least worst option as far as I can see.

If there is a strategy to enable a Remain win, then let me in on it, because I can't see it.
 
TheDecameron said:
It’s ‘over the line’. Labour MPs have provided Boris Johnson with a majority of two. That’s appalling on several different levels. Labour is stuffed at the next GE.
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They have been stuffed for quite a while, due to the Brexiteer idiocy of Corbyn. If the Johnson Withdrawal Agreement gets through, while he has a minority government of -43 or something, it will be in large part due to the Labour Party's dithering and its Lexiteer MPs.

Let's see what happens. In the meantime I'm going on the Brexit Protest March tomorrow. If a general election comes up, I'll vote Green. I have 0% trust in Corbyn and his promises when it comes to Brexit.

Jack
 
bor said:
I would vote for this glittery turd May deal.

I sadly don't see any path to a Remain victory, and there is a fear that a No Deal Brexit could still be achieved through fair-means-or-foul.

This is the least worst option as far as I can see.

If there is a strategy to enable a Remain win, then let me in on it, because I can't see it.
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You are correct. This deal will get through. If Letwin gets his amendment in it means you safely move to phase 2. This is when ERG & BJ set out their vision. That is when the sparks will fly. I can't see any vote tomorrow that will enable this deal with a confirmatory referendum. That is the best outcome. Defeating it? Not sure if that is the safest option. But with the Tory rebels back on side and plenty of Labour supporters I think it will get through.
Doomsday is if BJ gets an election and a working majority. Then you are heading for dark side no matter how long it takes
 
Time out:

It's about 9 of a Friday evening, I've opened a bottle of something nice after a long week: pull a disc at random from the rack to go-with, and press play - and it is curiously apposite to this whole thread theme, and our differences.

It's a music forum. It'll be a long day in politics tomorrow. Hope you all enjoy this meanwhile:


 
Colin Barron said:
A slight problem is availability of lithium. At 2015 levels of usage and estimated reserves there were 365 years supply of lithium.
http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/network/network-news/guest-blog-is-there-enough-lithium-to-supply-increased-battery-demand.html#targetText=As recently as%2
We can only hope that this estimate of reserves is incorrect.
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That report says this......

"
. As recently as 2015, it was estimated that the planet holds enough lithium reserves to maintain global production for 365 years. This, however, was at a time in which said production output equaled 37,000 tons of lithium per year.

Greentech Media estimated that by 2040, the world could see upwards of 100 Tesla sized factories to meet the growing need for electric vehicles. In that environment, based on those 2015 figures, that 365 year supply would be used up within 17 years. "

So... 17 years worth of Lithium. And that is assuming that all of what is assessed to exist is accessible .
 
HarryB said:
Lose the whip, get deselected and then be expelled from the party. Even that would be too good for the treacherous bastards.

Christ, I’ve just watched Ronnie Campbell being interviewed on Ch4 news and I despair. Must be the thickest MP Britain has ever seen.
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Representing the views of the electorate, unlike others who know better and will soon be picking up their P45 after the GE which is not far away.
 
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