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The Premiership ofLiz Truss. Sept 2022-Oct 2022. New PM time!

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I think in trouble is the wrong phrase as it's not like we face an existential crisis or anything. Rather we face a lot of very hard choices and the politics of our current government means that the people who will pay will be the poor and the vulnerable.

My personal view is that:

1) Monetary policy is not the answer because our current circumstances mean you want to both raise (to prevent inflation) and lower (to help with cost of living) interest rates.

2) We should therefore look to fiscal policy which basically means raising taxes.

3) Normally I think we should use taxes as a means of redistribution to help the working poor and the vulnerable, but given the current cost of living problems I think that with spades on.

4) I think ruling out windfall taxes (which are obviously one offs not on going) is nuts. When things are tough, take the low hanging fruit!

Keynes quite rightly focussed on full employment to balance the economy, a simple idea that was overthrown in 1979 by Monestarism and a focus on inflation. The immediate result was both higher inflation and higher unemployment.

Monetary policy is certainly not the answer and decades of experience has shown that it never has been as can be demonstrated by your observation that it is at best both the supposed answer to, and the cause of, economic problems. At worst, where it has been successful, the consequences have been unemployment and in latter years, increasing low pay and poorer working conditions

Fiscal Policy does not necessarily mean raising taxes because government spending is not funded from taxation. Government spending could, for example, be used to offer a well paid job with decent working conditions to eveyone who wants one, which would not only be an automatic economic stabiliser that would redistribute wealth and help the working poor, but also tackle inflation.

Keynesianism was not without it’s faults, but it’s emphasis on full employment as an economic stabiliser was, and is, correct. We now have much better economic tools than were available in the New Deal era so we can easily get back to real full employment with decent pay and conditions for everyone willing and able to accept a Guaranteed Job.

Taxing the wealthy would be a good idea for sound economic reasons, but we need to be clear that tax does not fund spending because such a false narrative it is what feeds to the story about the supposed link between tax and government spending, a story that is used to impose austerity and cuts funding to our public services.
 
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A chilling thread from Richard Murphy as to what two years of Sunak will bring (Twitter). I suspect he is essentially correct. The economic incompetence of austerity will be punishing leaving maybe irreversible damage to state services we all rely on, a fractured Tory Party will push ever further to the right crushing human rights as they go. Dark times ahead.
 
A chilling thread from Richard Murphy as to what two years of Sunak will bring (Twitter). I suspect he is essentially correct. The economic incompetence of austerity will be punishing leaving maybe irreversible damage to state services we all rely on, a fractured Tory Party will push ever further to the right crushing human rights as they go. Dark times ahead.
Anyone interested in how the economy really works should read Richard Murphy carefully.

On Sunak specially, we should remember that this is the man who is supposed to understand economics, but actually believes that running the country is just like running his Mum’s Chemist shop. Either he doesn’t understand economics or he thinks the electorate are too dim to be told the truth
 
Either he doesn’t understand economics or he thinks the electorate are too dim to be told the truth

He seems such a grifter with his own extraordinarily dubious tax and ‘Green Card’ affairs that I’m sure he understands it all very well indeed. It just doesn’t suit his aims. We should understand he represents the Conservative Party’s billionaire owners and backers, not the wider electorate. We also know he is perfectly happy to break rules and lie in Parliament to cover it. We have that on camera. Sunak is not a public servant, nor is the Conservative Party an entity acting in the national interest. The gulf between those who covertly own and buy influence within the party and the masses who have been tricked into voting for it could not be more extreme. Turkeys, Christmas, and all that.
 
He seems such a grifter with his own extraordinarily dubious tax and ‘Green Card’ affairs that I’m sure he understands it all very well indeed. It just doesn’t suit his aims. We should understand he represents the Conservative Party billionaire owners and backers, not the wider electorate. We also know he is perfectly happy to break rules and lie in Parliament to cover it. We have that on camera. Sunak is not a public servant, nor is the Conservative Party an entity acting in the national interest. The gulf between those who covertly own and buy influence within the party and the masses who have been tricked into voting for could not be more extreme. Turkeys, Christmas, and all that.
Yes, Sunak is telling the same lies as Thatcher told us years ago, amazing that they still get believed.
 
Yes, Sunak is telling the same lies as Thatcher told us years ago, amazing that they still get believed.

The difference is Thatcher was from a normal middle class background running with a then untested ideology, Sunak is a billionaire oligarch working in the interests of his global peers who now own the Tory Party outright.
 
A chilling thread from Richard Murphy as to what two years of Sunak will bring (Twitter). I suspect he is essentially correct. The economic incompetence of austerity will be punishing leaving maybe irreversible damage to state services we all rely on, a fractured Tory Party will push ever further to the right crushing human rights as they go. Dark times ahead.

I think we have a lot of turmoil still to come, and I'd be very surprised if we get all the way to late 2024 / early 2025 before there is an election.
Sunak will probably get to be PM and a lot of what Murphy predicts seems highly likely, but tory party members and voters have effectively been sidelined by the MP's promoting Rish!, and they will not be happy about that. People will desert the party in droves, some to LD or Labour if they feel a bit let down by the tories, but most will go towards the farther right parties like Reform etc., especially if they have been following the tories rightwards path over the last few years. There will be lots of noise on social media and pressure on MP's whichever way they voted, pressure on tory councillors and local groups, possibly even protests. Ironically, all sides of the political spectrum have been brought together by this failure of democracy and tory power grab, despite their lack of a mandate from the electorate.

The parliamentary party was never going to come together regardless of who became PM, because they have got too used to the infighting over the last three years and are constantly suspicious of their internal groups, polarised and embattled. Bozo and his supporters will continue to foment trouble, and MP's who supported different leadership candidates will be at each other's throats when they're not undermining the leadership.

One potential good thing to come out of this might be the removal of far-right zealots with no talent beyond spite and greed like JRM, Berry, Philp, Gullis, Jenkyns etc. from anywhere near powers they should never have been given.
It also handily exposes those who are the most morally bankrupt of all, lurching their support from one candidate to another depending on how likely they would be to retain a lucrative job.

My 'representative' is James Cleverly, who displayed his typical cowardice in holding off until the last minute before announcing his support for Bozo, and his typical skill for always backing the wrong horse.
 
Good Private Eye piece on recent economic woes. It covers LDI which has been covered here before, but also mentions shadow banking which it is warned is taking us into a ‘“new danger zone - a world that is more fragmented, more fragile and more prone to shocks that can quickly knock countries off course”. Even without Liz Truss”

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The difference is Thatcher was from a normal middle class background running with a then untested ideology, Sunak is a billionaire oligarch working in the interests of his global peers who now own the Tory Party outright.

Just one point of order. Although he married into a very wealthy family, Sunak came from a middle class family of migrants - dad was a GP and mum was a pharmacist. (https://metro.co.uk/2022/08/02/meet...he-race-to-lead-number-10-continues-17100119/). Seems he has benefitted from parents who were grafters.

I agree he may have lost sight of that with his subsequent life of wealth.
 
A chilling thread from Richard Murphy as to what two years of Sunak will bring (Twitter). I suspect he is essentially correct. The economic incompetence of austerity will be punishing leaving maybe irreversible damage to state services we all rely on, a fractured Tory Party will push ever further to the right crushing human rights as they go. Dark times ahead.
Yes, good thread and I think he's right in almost every respect.

However, I'm not sure the Tories will win the next election as the polling suggests they are too far gone. Murphy also seems to assume that Sunak will be able to unite the parliamentary Conservative party, and I'm not so sure about that.

He's right that, as things stand, the Labour alternative will change virtually nothing, though I expect to see less (obvious) corruption in a government led by Starmer.
 
Murphy also seems to assume that Sunak will be able to unite the parliamentary Conservative party, and I'm not so sure about that.

Agreed - there were about 60 supporters for Johnson and that is about the same as the size of majority the Conservatives hold. Unless they behave (and looking at the list of names, there's a few in there I doubt will) getting anything through Parliament over the next two years will be tricky. It could re-run of May Government-style paralysis; just what the UK needs.
 
Here’s a (possibly incomplete) list of the Tory MPs who thought it was a great idea to stick a huge shit back up the national arse and return Johnson to power:


Nigel Adams, MP for Selby and Ainsty
Lee Anderson, MP for Ashfield
Shaun Bailey, MP for West Bromwich West
Scott Benton, MP for Blackpool South
Peter Bone, MP for Wellingborough
Ben Bradley, MP for Mansfield
Paul Bristow, MP for Peterborough
Bill Cash, MP for Stone
Sir Christopher Chope, MP for Christchurch
Simon Clarke, MP for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Brendan Clarke-Smith, MP for Bassetlaw
Leo Docherty, MP for Aldershot
Nadine Dorries, MP for Mid Bedfordshire
Richard Drax, MP for South Dorset
Sir James Duddridge, MP for Rochford and Southend East
Mark Eastwood, MP for Dewsbury
Ben Everitt, MP for Milton Keynes North
Michael Fabricant, MP for Lichfield
James Grundy, MP for Leigh
Jonathan Gullis, MP for Stoke-on-Trent North
Trudy Harrison, MP for Copeland
Chris Heaton-Harris, MP for Daventry
Antony Higginbotham, MP for Burnley
Philip Hollobone, MP for Kettering
Jane Hunt, MP for Loughborough
Andrea Jenkyns, MP for Morley and Outwood
Caroline Johnson, MP for Sleaford and North Hykeham
Gareth Johnson, MP for Dartford
Edward Leigh, MP for Gainsborough
Ian Levy, MP for Blyth Valley
Marco Longhi, MP for Dudley North
Karl McCartney, MP for Lincoln
Stephen McPartland, MP for Stevenage
Amanda Milling, MP for Cannock Chase
David Morris, MP for Morecambe and Lunesdale
Jill Mortimer, MP for Hartlepool
Holly Mumby-Croft, MP for Scunthorpe
Sheryll Murray, MP for South East Cornwall
Lia Nici, MP for Great Grimsby
Matthew Offord, MP for Hendon
Priti Patel, MP for Witham
Mark Pritchard, MP for The Wrekin
Tom Pursglove, MP for Corby
Jacob Rees-Mogg, MP for North East Somerset
Andrew Rosindell, MP for Romford
Alok Sharma, MP for Reading West
Greg Smith, MP for Buckingham
Henry Smith, MP for Crawley
Andrew Stephenson, MP for Pendle
Jane Stevenson, MP for Wolverhampton North East
Anne-Marie Trevelyan, MP for Berwick-Upon-Tweed
Shailesh Vara, MP for North West Cambridgeshire
Ben Wallace, MP for Wyre and Preston North


May they all be flushed next election.

PS List sourced here, it is from this morning so likely well out of date. Please add any missing names so we can remember the people so happy to support Trump-grade popularism, political corruption and criminality.

I understand James ‘not very’ Cleverly is in the list too.
 
The difference is Thatcher was from a normal middle class background running with a then untested ideology, Sunak is a billionaire oligarch working in the interests of his global peers who now own the Tory Party outright.

Yes, but then Pinochet was from a similarly middle class background. The Milton Friedman ideology, which Thatcher also adopted just a few years later, was always aimed at Oligarchy and Authoritarianism and that, unsurprisingly, is where it ended up. Our democracy has certainly protected us from the worst excesses of the neoliberal experiment such as those in Chile, but Orgreave and Beanfield show the same tendency towards authoritarianism and the suppression of workers rights and the freedoms created for the rich show the same tendency to oligarchy.
 
Just one point of order. Although he married into a very wealthy family, Sunak came from a middle class family of migrants - dad was a GP and mum was a pharmacist. (https://metro.co.uk/2022/08/02/meet...he-race-to-lead-number-10-continues-17100119/). Seems he has benefitted from parents who were grafters.

I agree he may have lost sight of that with his subsequent life of wealth.
He has lots sight of his mums pharmacy, he thinks that is the model of how to run the country!
 
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