Ukraine V

[tones]

I think the most important requirement for starting peace negotiations is to be certain that Russia has been sufficiently hurt / damaged by this war that they will not think of doing the same within the next few decades. Unfortunately I don't think we're yet at that point.

Don't you think that this has already happened? Putin has comprehensively trashed his country's reputation. Everyone knows his army is rubbish. He has lost a huge proportion of his armour. He can't make smart weapons because he can't get the chips. He has forced the formidable militaries of Finland and Sweden into NATO, and has united NATO instead of dividing it. In short, the whole thing is a self-inflicted catastrophe, which he, poor guy, is apparently unable to see. One wonders if, like Hitler, he has chosen to inhabit hios very own fantasy world, and nobody who doesn't want to see the inside of the Lubyanka or have an unfortunate encounter with an elevated window will tell him.

 

[tones]

Like it was for Russia enough with Crimea. Where do you think they will stop? There are big russian communities all over Europa, Germany probably biggest, and not even speaking about other direct neighbors.

NATO - and NATO now knows that it is facing a Potemkin army.

 

[Craig B]

I'm very much looking forward to seeing Lavrov and Medvedev in particular swinging from lampposts.

I call dibs on Medvedev's CD player!

 

[TheDecameron]

I watched poor old Stephen Sackur frustratingly trying to get some semblance of a productive interview with a member of the Russian State Duma, Evgeny Popov, this morning on Hard Talk (4.30am - I'm an early bird). A complete waste of time, the man just trotting out propaganda. One has to wonder if Popov actually believes that stuff.

Politicians know everything is global now in news, he’ll be playing to a British audience and a domestic one. The contortions coming out of the Kremlin are breathtaking. They never invaded Ukraine, Ukraine attacked them, the West doesn’t recognise Russia’s right to exist etc.

When you couple this with their blatant acts of state terrorism ( novichock and radioactive poisons on British soil), it paints a worrying picture.

 

[TheDecameron]

“Russia: Pipeline falls from balcony after suffering multiple heart attacks.”

The story’s going to a black flag special- pipeline sabotaging by US submarine on Biden’s orders. US hegemony over Europe bla bla

 

[gints]

Putin on holiday, scuba diving.

 

[matt j]

Are there any ancient submerged cathedrals down there, maybe it was a sightseeing trip?

 

[Plink]

I think he was a decent guy! He illustrates a perceptual issue with how most of us here see Russia, ie. “surely the people will rise up against Putin”. We underestimate his domestic support at our peril.

He did seem like a decent guy. Wonder how old he is. If he hasn’t already escaped and isn’t old or privileged, he will have some tough times as Russia announced they are placing mobilisation centers at the borders.

 

[Richard Lines]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1574767945850519553

It isn't an easy area to be operating a submarine and remain undetected and the ways out are quite limited and ought to be easily monitored so I personally have doubts.

I'm not sure how deep the water is at the points of damage but I imagine it is diveable? Given a vessel with a half decent DP capability and a survey package and a winch with a transponder you could place charges pretty accurately and it could have been done yesterday or a week ago or more?

Regards

Richard

 

[Kirk]

Referenda apparently a total success, with 96%-97% "voting" to join RF.

Where is the 3%-4% who voted no, I ask?

Spoiled ballots.

 

[Craig B]

It isn't an easy area to be operating a submarine and remain undetected and the ways out are quite limited and ought to be easily monitored so I personally have doubts.

I'm not sure how deep the water is at the points of damage but I imagine it is diveable? Given a vessel with a half decent DP capability and a survey package and a winch with a transponder you could place charges pretty accurately and it could have been done yesterday or a week ago or more?

Regards

Richard

Could have been a designed in feature of the pipeline, for all we know.

 

[kensalriser]

It may do. Russia's deterrence doctrine allows first use if there is "aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy." (https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/R45861.pdf).

The results of the referenda, hovered bogus that may be, now clearly place occupied territory within the Russian Federation. Any attempt to recapture them by the Ukrainian forces can now be considered (in the eyes of Russia and its allies) as an attack on the Russian Federation. I believe the reason the referenda were called so quickly is a desperate attempt to keep hold of the occupied lands following the failure of conventional forces in that endeavour.

Aren't you just swallowing the propaganda here? The occupied territories are not within the russian federation just because russia says so. That is patently absurd.

 

[Richard Lines]

Could have been a designed in feature of the pipeline, for all we know.

Very unlikely as the Castoro Sei would have been laying the pipe in a near continuous process with all manner of ongoing QA.

The locations of all pipelines/ cables are very accurately charted and it has been mentioned elsewhere on this forum attacking them is actually pretty easy should you choose to do so.

How vulnerable they are has just been made plainly evident. This action is pretty close to a declaration of war IMHO. It certainly wouldn't take very long with an ROV to determine what happened. Fixing the damage won't be done overnight - not that there is any gas available at the moment............

Regards

Richard

 

[Bjork67]

After some of the shite dmitri or watever the russian chap was on about i hope the twats dead after wat ive seen.

 

[Seeker_UK]

Aren't you just swallowing the propaganda here? The occupied territories are not within the russian federation just because russia says so. That is patently absurd.

You did see my use of the word "bogus" in relation to the results, didn't you?

My point is that even if the rest of the World see the elections as illegitimate, Russia believes it has set the scene to justify threatening to behave as if it was defending home turf. That carries a stronger threat of a nuclear response and they are hoping that has an effect of putting in check Ukrainian advances into those territories. Whether it works as a deterrent or emboldens Russian forces to go further, only rime will tell. The idea that these elections changes nothing is wrong, IMHO.

 

[paulfromcamden]

Russia announced they are placing mobilisation centers at the borders.

Big country though. Lots of border to maintain. Most of the Estonian border is water.

 

[Gingerbeard]

Well, obviously, I know that. But people need to start doing that, and much much more. Military defeat in Ukraine alone is not going to turn Russia into a healthy democracy. The people have to do it themselves. Liberation only comes from below.

Indeed, similar to that of the extraordinary bravery the Iranian women are currently showing

 

[TheDecameron]

It isn't an easy area to be operating a submarine and remain undetected and the ways out are quite limited and ought to be easily monitored so I personally have doubts.

I'm not sure how deep the water is at the points of damage but I imagine it is diveable? Given a vessel with a half decent DP capability and a survey package and a winch with a transponder you could place charges pretty accurately and it could have been done yesterday or a week ago or more?

Regards

Richard

….it was you, wasn’t it?

 

[Craig B]

Very unlikely as the Castoro Sei would have been laying the pipe in a near continuous process with all manner of ongoing QA.

The locations of all pipelines/ cables are very accurately charted and it has been mentioned elsewhere on this forum attacking them is actually pretty easy should you choose to do so.

How vulnerable they are has just been made plainly evident. This action is pretty close to a declaration of war IMHO. It certainly wouldn't take very long with an ROV to determine what happened. Fixing the damage won't be done overnight - not that there is any gas available at the moment............

Regards

Richard

I was just taking the piss, Richard.

 

[Alex S]

We can pontificate as much as we like. Zelenskyy understands the ethnicity of various regions, the true level of real Western support in war and in peace, the deaths of his people relative to where his borders are or should be. Its his call. I suspect that whatever you and I think, the West will not contemplate Armageddon for the sake of Ukraine. In that sense Russia, however evil Putin may be, is not as dumb as people make out.

As I said before, China is best placed to stop this but will they?