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Housing market

Which is odd because the things you seem most upset by (over-indebtedness, an economy that discourages saving and encourages BTL investing) are the core policy outcomes of the modern Conservatives. Their trajectory is to shrink the middle class until we are back to the 1780s, where the role of the middle classes is constrained and social mobility is almost non-existent. Everything is financialized, if you don't have your wealth offshore you can't compete, and the vehicles of this globally mobile wealth are multi-national corporations.

The Tories are waging class war and even your side - the small 'c' conservative middle-class is getting hammered. And, because you are still scared of 'socialism' (a nineteenth century fad that had limited success in moderating old-style capitalism and since the 1940s has barely existed in mainstream politics), you still think that mixed-market social democracy is a threat to you, rather than a lifeboat.

Well, let’s look at the other key choice from the last 3 elections. Miliband, Corbyn and Corbyn. No conservative is going to get behind these guys. The Corbyn / McDonnell ticket sent shivers down the spines of millions and the election results speak for themselves.
 
The Corbyn / McDonnell ticket sent shivers down the spines of millions and the election results speak for themselves.

I do know what you mean, they were still haunted by the ghosts of Blair and the nasty right wing elements in the Labour Party.
 
Miliband was not a threat. And when you actually look at policy, rather than Labour's rhetoric of 'radical socialism' and the personal inadequacy of Corbyn, Corbyn's policies were mixed-market social democracy of a Northern European kind. The press ran scare stories that sent shivers down the spines of millions, but the Conservative governments that were elected on the back of that effort have been the worst of my lifetime.
 
Well, let’s look at the other key choice from the last 3 elections. Miliband, Corbyn and Corbyn. No conservative is going to get behind these guys. The Corbyn / McDonnell ticket sent shivers down the spines of millions and the election results speak for themselves.
In fact, Miliband's obsession with the middle classes ('the squeezed middle') and his Ricardian view of 'responsible capitalism' where 'unearned wealth' needed to be treated differently to 'earned wealth' should have appealed to conservatives.
 
Ed Conway of Sky News posted a truly fascinating thread on Twitter, which revolves around an analysis of relative affordability of UK mortgage interest rates. He suggests that if rates (currently projected to rise to 4.75%) have to rise to around 6%, we will be in similar territory to the early 1990s. The headline rate in 1990 was 15%, but affordability was much higher, something like double, he suggests. The basic argument is that although 4.75% sounds like a low interest rate by historical standards, it will actually be very hard for people to afford.
Ed Conway said:
If rates went up to 6% (not currently forecast but these days who knows?!) it would be horrendous. The mortgage burden would be very similar to the early 1990s - which precipitated the worst housing crash in modern history. Prob even worse cos this data doesn’t adjust for MIRAS.

I think he's underestimating the banks' capacity for 'forbearance' etc, which they rolled out with alacrity after the 2008 financial crisis, but even so, it makes sobering reading.
 
Ed Conway of Sky News posted a truly fascinating thread on Twitter, which revolves around an analysis of relative affordability of UK mortgage interest rates. He suggests that if rates (currently projected to rise to 4.75%) have to rise to around 6%, we will be in similar territory to the early 1990s. The headline rate in 1990 was 15%, but affordability was much higher, something like double, he suggests. The basic argument is that although 4.75% sounds like a low interest rate by historical standards, it will actually be very hard for people to afford.

Why is this such a surprise?

We've had 14 years of very low interest rates and the system becomes broken. You only have to look around you to see how people's approach to debt has changed since 2008. They've been treating borrowed money as a Grant that never needs paying back because the interest was so bloody low.
 
Ed Conway of Sky News posted a truly fascinating thread on Twitter, which revolves around an analysis of relative affordability of UK mortgage interest rates. He suggests that if rates (currently projected to rise to 4.75%) have to rise to around 6%, we will be in similar territory to the early 1990s. The headline rate in 1990 was 15%, but affordability was much higher, something like double, he suggests. The basic argument is that although 4.75% sounds like a low interest rate by historical standards, it will actually be very hard for people to afford.

I think he's underestimating the banks' capacity for 'forbearance' etc, which they rolled out with alacrity after the 2008 financial crisis, but even so, it makes sobering reading.

That sounds very plausible to me. Reading that last few pages the Irish property market appears to be a carbon copy of the UK. Affordability is gone, interest rates are going to put a lot of people into trouble and we still have a legal system that is slow, poor and expensive. I think it just mirrors the UK which I struggle to understand given how the Conservatives act for the wealthy.

It is very difficult to repossess a property over here and as a result most banks are leaving the Irish market. Not sure if it is a left over from the British occupation and the dispossession that occurred. Is it as difficult in the UK? For instance we still have a large number of distressed properties from the 2008 crash that banks can't repossess.

On the rental market the same situation is happening over here were landlords are leaving the market in droves because there is no return. It has been taxed and legislated to extinction. On the other hand venture capital investment funds are buying up whole new estates and are able to rent them tax free!
 

Suggesting students quit studies because they can't be housed - surely this can't be a serious response from a university?

The UK housing market including the rental sector needs a truly massive correction and all Liz & Co. are planning on doing is easing stamp duty which of course is only going to keep house prices rising.

It simply can't keep going like this............

Regards

Richard
 
I think the suggestion is that students can’t find a place to live in Glasgow because there are less private rentals than before, some landlords have thrown in the towel and there is very little new investment. And that, possibly, partly, because of the Scottish government’s policies.
 
Has anyone lived in a converted flat? Am I right in think the noise insulation is terrible, especially for ground floors?
 
Has anyone lived in a converted flat? Am I right in think the noise insulation is terrible, especially for ground floors?

Yes, it was fine, mostly in old houses - Victorian or Edwardian terrasses, never on the ground floor in them, always at the top or once in the basement. I have lived in a new conversion on the ground floor too, and I don’t remember an issue about noise insulation either.
 
Yep, been there. It depends on the Insulation between floors and above all the behaviour of the tenants above. I've had mixed experiences and on balance would much prefer not to live in a conversion.
 
You mean the most successful labour leader of all time?!

I’d find it hard to disagree. Yet they were elected. That speaks volumes to the lack of viable alternative.

Until the UK is free of the tripartite system we will continue to have a case of rinse and repeat. Blair, son of Thatcher, was only able to sit at the top table because of his “relationship” with Murdoch.

The media’s grip is so dominant, it does not reflect the mood/opinions of the population instead it has great influence in shaping it.
 
Suggesting students quit studies because they can't be housed - surely this can't be a serious response from a university?

The UK housing market including the rental sector needs a truly massive correction and all Liz & Co. are planning on doing is easing stamp duty which of course is only going to keep house prices rising.

It simply can't keep going like this............

Regards

Richard

Not sure what they expect when they beat the hell out of landlords. With eviction bans, landlords will be far more picky over new tenants, require 6 / 12 months rent in advance and some who can afford to will simply not let their property at all. Not much incentive for many long term landlords to sell up either if they crystallises a high CGT bill (recently increased for property). A total mess.
 
Yep, been there. It depends on the Insulation between floors and above all the behaviour of the tenants above. I've had mixed experiences and on balance would much prefer not to live in a conversion.

Reading around it seems to depend when the conversion was done, before a certain date and no insulation between floors was required. A quick search results in mostly negative experiences of conversions, especially ground floor.
 


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