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Gas and Electricity Prices

twotone said:
Forecast is something like minus 4% in January 2024 and dropping from there but which will probably still be around the £5k mark unless those tory bstards do something in the meantime.

Aye they could send Scottish schoolkids to thier deaths in midwinter by retaing British Summer time that would would help, less people and all that.
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It looks like in the past the average costs were about £1200 a year. Are you saying that forecasts say we can expect them stabilise at around £5K mark for a while - a few years? I.e. a structural change.

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-is-the-energy-price-cap/
 
matt j said:
£571 in January trending on my Twitter feed. The more this seems to go up on a daily basis the higher the probability of public dissent.

We'll all be in jail soon having a right good knees up, at least the heating will be free.

https://twitter.com/WeakyLynam/status/1557989541096706049
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The Tories will re-introduce "The Treadwheel" in jails and make inmates work to generate electricity for the wealthy.
 
Presumably the structural change is entirely due to increased demand without increased supply for gas which isn’t Russian. Is that right?
 
Also to some extent because some countries lack the ability to accept tanker delivery of LPG. That inceases the competition for pipelined gas. But the main problem is that Russia is restricting supply for its advantage. i.e. Economics + War as a political toolset. People will adapt, but it will take a few years and be disruptive.
 
Jim Audiomisc said:
Also to some extent because some countries lack the ability to accept tanker delivery of LPG. That inceases the competition for pipelined gas. But the main problem is that Russia is restricting supply for its advantage. i.e. Economics + War as a political toolset. People will adapt, but it will take a few years and be disruptive.
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Right, it’s not that the EU (and others) aren’t buying Russian gas, it’s that Russia is restricting supply which keeps prices high.
 
Jim Audiomisc said:
I did laugh out loud at that. The reality in the UK is slightly different for many sectors. 'Privatisations' and 'Outsorcings' has created all kinds of gravy trains for the owners of the companies, and the actual level of service and investment fades. So we end up paying them to make a profit.

IIRC various case like water in the Thames area was bought up by an Australian firm who them got it to borrow a huge amount. They then paid themselves a huge dividend from that, and sold off the company, leaving it saddled with debt. Which then means reluctance to invest, maintain, etc. Quite a lot of medium-large scale 'private' becomes essentially a monopoly. And profits tend to go offshore, often dodging tax at the door.
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FT story from 2021.

Although there was an initial rise in spending, as some companies sought to meet European water quality directives, research by the Financial Times showed that total capital expenditure by the 10 biggest water and sewage monopolies had declined by 15 per cent since the 1990s — from £5.7bn to £4.8bn a year.
...
Over the same time the companies — which were sold off with no debt and handed £1.5bn — have borrowed £53bn, the equivalent of around £2,000 per household. Much of that has been used not for new investment but to pay £72bn in dividends.

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https://www.ft.com/content/b2314ae0-9e17-425d-8e3f-066270388331
 
mandryka said:
Presumably the structural change is entirely due to increased demand without increased supply for gas which isn’t Russian. Is that right?
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There’s no increased demand nothing’s changed in that respect, I mean there isn’t suddenly another 10 million people popped up in the Uk looking for gas and electricity, the price of energy has simply increased plus there’s the war in Ukraine but that’s really a side issue.
 
twotone said:
There’s no increased demand nothing’s changed in that respect, I mean there isn’t suddenly another 10 million people popped up in the Uk looking for gas and electricity, the price of energy has simply increased plus there’s the war in Ukraine but that’s really a side issue.
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I'm trying to get clear about why there has been a price increase. Initially I thought it was because countries which are opposed to Russia's war in Ukraine don't want to buy Russian product, and the supply of non-Russian product hasn't increased in a way which meets the increased demand -- putting the price of non Russian energy up. But the latest suggestion is that that's not right. It's not that people don't want Russian gas, they do. It's that the Russians are limiting the supply of their gas for some reason, putting the price up.
 
mandryka said:
I'm trying to get clear about why there has been a price increase. Initially I thought it was because people opposed to Russia's war in Ukraine don't want to buy Russian product, and the supply of non-Russian product hasn't increased in a way which meets the demand -- putting the price of non Russian energy up. But the latest suggestion is that that's not right. It's not that people don't want Russian gas, it's that the Russian's are limiting the supply of their gas, putting the price up.
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Look you seem a pretty intelligent person go and do some research or are you just trolling again?
 
mandryka said:
I'm using this site to do the research. When I saw this long thread I thought that there may be people who'd thought about it, that's all.
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In other news a man has just landed on the moon!

I mean where the eff have you been for the past six months whilst the world has gone to hell in a handbasket?

Missing the covid thread much?
 
mandryka said:
I'm trying to get clear about why there has been a price increase. Initially I thought it was because countries which are opposed to Russia's war in Ukraine don't want to buy Russian product, and the supply of non-Russian product hasn't increased in a way which meets the increased demand -- putting the price of non Russian energy up. But the latest suggestion is that that's not right. It's not that people don't want Russian gas, they do. It's that the Russians are limiting the supply of their gas for some reason, putting the price up.
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My (admittedly limited) understanding is that other contributing factors are an unusually warm Summer in Asia where air-conditioning is increasing power usage and a cold Winter in Europe that led to gas reserves being run down.

But also that it's largely a result of Russia drastically reducing the gas supply.

European gas prices have surged 30 per cent in two days after Russia deepened supply cuts to the continent in Moscow’s latest attempt to weaponise energy supplies. Futures contracts for delivery next month tied to TTF, the European benchmark wholesale gas price, jumped 20 per cent on Tuesday to breach €210 per megawatt hour, the highest level since early March, a day after Russia warned of lighter flows on the largest pipeline supplying the region. Prices are more than 10 times higher than the average between 2010 and 2020.
Russian state-backed energy group Gazprom on Monday said flows on the Nord Stream 1 (NS1) pipeline would plummet to 33mn cubic metres from Wednesday because of turbine maintenance issues. That would amount to a fifth of the pipeline’s capacity and half of current levels.
“Everyone in the market was expecting Russian volumes to drop,” said James Huckstepp, manager of Emea gas analytics at S&P Global Commodity Insights, a consultancy. “But the market wasn’t expecting flows to fall this quickly.”

https://www.ft.com/content/f8450175-7332-4074-aaac-71534141e305

Russia is claiming sanctions are making it difficult to maintain gas turbines leaving them no choice but to reduce supply....
 
mandryka said:
I'm trying to get clear about why there has been a price increase. Initially I thought it was because countries which are opposed to Russia's war in Ukraine don't want to buy Russian product, and the supply of non-Russian product hasn't increased in a way which meets the increased demand -- putting the price of non Russian energy up. But the latest suggestion is that that's not right. It's not that people don't want Russian gas, they do. It's that the Russians are limiting the supply of their gas for some reason, putting the price up.
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You do seem to have missed what has happened, maybe you’re off-grid for months at a time. I’ll add one one extra Russian factor..due to sanctions (in part) they want to be paid in Roubles.
 
Ponty said:
Having had a solar thermal system for well over a decade to supply hot water and seen first hand how well that works, I can wholeheartedly recommend. Simple to install and maintain as well, a no brainer if you have a suitably orientated roof.
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I have a Solar Thermal system as well which does what it says on the can. Considered opinion is that Solar PV is more usable in that you can use a diverter to heat your hot water and then use the electricity elsewhere Ince the water is heated. If the Solar Thermal gets the tank to temperature there is no more it can do so you can't always fully capitalise on 100% of its output.

Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
But it’s the publicly owned firms that are inefficient, you know!
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Ironically the two authorities with the highest leaks per household are the Scottish and N.Irish water companies - both publicly owned (figures from the July 22 Which magazine) .......

Regards

Richard
 
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