Do you think this could be because of increasing levels of population immunity? I can't help but be impressed by this
Nearly nine in 10 young adults in UK likely to have Covid-19 antibodies
Covid live news: 90% of young adults in UK likely to have antibodies; China has vaccinated 1bn people | World news | The Guardian
I don't know about party political, but sure: a national press on the bones of its arse and leading with emotion/sensation; a new class of media scientists taking advantage; big audience of WFH professionals whose only real risk factor is their children. It's understandable but it warps discussion, and probably policy. Very little discussion of the role of work in transmission, and even less of the international picture. As an example: months of fraught discussion over the JCVI position on kids (where risks and benefits either way are very low), while their decision on boosting everyone over 50 passes without comment. Seems to me like that might be at least as consequential a decision.This is all in line with the ZOE Study I think.
Interesting to think about why this obsession happened, I’ve got some sketchy ideas about that, to do with the way some groups have tried to use the crisis for party political ends, and maybe thought that kids would have more emotional leverage than work.
a national press on the bones of its arse and leading with emotion/sensation; a new class of media scientists taking advantage;
Maybe you are finding out what happens to most fully vaxed healthy people who get an asymptomatic infection boosting their immunity
But here we are, 26K cases today, and as far as I can see not a dicky bird about it either from press or media scientists. Good news is no news.
But here we are, 26K cases today, and as far as I can see not a dicky bird about it either from press or media scientists. Good news is no news.
I was going to download the data and do some analysis myself to see if patterns in the number of cases was really followed by the number of hospital admissions, but then my daughter sent me this:
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1437802268343128070/photo/4
Graph shows rate of change of new cases offset by 7 days with rate of change of hospital admissions. The correlation is very good (not an absolute overlay due to noise in the number of new cases, probably due to reasons that have been discussed on here) and strongly suggests, that we can use the rate of change (pattern in the data) of new cases to inform as to how the infection in the country is changing.
As to why there is no mention anywhere of the number of new cases dropping not being mentioned anywhere, I do not know.
I would like to see an explanation as to why the cases are dropping now as opposed to in a few weeks time etc.
It's a complicated situation, as regards influence. For instance here we see a professional campaign organisation made up of scientists, journalists and others raising money from media consumers to pay scientist-celebrities to tell journalists to tell their readers and viewers that their children are in grave danger:I suppose my thought was that the media scientists were influencing the perspective of the journalists, rather than the press looking for an sensational story and influencing what the scientists say. But yes, I see you could be right, maybe there was influence both ways.
In Scotland this week 2.2% have covid, last week it was 1.3% and the week before it was 0.7%. A doubling time of about 7+ days.
Schools returned early (23/8) in Leicestershire (where cases are extremely high) and cases in kids are now rising sharply. The recent fall nationally is thought to be 2nd dose coverage in the 20+ age group.
One death every 10 minutes...
I had lunch in the west end today. London is really bouncing back - it feels as lively as it did in September 2019!
The Tube remains quiet.
Not when you get off the train at Oxford Circus on the northbound Victoria Line! It’s always a real crush. Generally I feel very safe on the tube train itself, more safe than in some supermarkets, it’s the platforms and interchanges I don’t like.
That's *exactly* where I was two days ago and it was nowhere near as busy as it was when I was regularly commuting that line in 2006-2013 and 2018-2020. (07:30 and 16:00)