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Coronavirus - the new strain XX

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PHE report on waning immunity ought to be reassuring:

https://assets.publishing.service.g...OVID-19_vaccines_against_clinical_disease.pdf

Overall, the results indicate that there is waning of VE against symptomatic disease with both the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines from approximately 10 weeks after the second dose. This is most evident in older adults.

There is some indication of waning against hospitalisation from 15 weeks after the second dose, in particular among recipients of the AstraZeneca vaccine, though this waning appears to be predominantly in clinical risk groups. This is a broad group of clinical conditions including those who are immunosuppressed, where faster waning may be predicted. Nevertheless, protection against

hospitalisation remains high throughout the follow-up period and even within clinical risk groups, VE against hospitalisation at 15-20 weeks is 75-90% with the AstraZeneca vaccine and over 90% with the Pfizer vaccine.

See especially confounding factors:

The data presented are observational and have a range of possible biases that have previously been described.(2, 6) There are some notable biases that could impact on waning in particular: firstly, within the all age analysis, and even within age groups, there will be different targeted cohorts with different lengths of follow-up and potentially different levels of waning and this may vary by vaccine. For example, healthcare workers are more likely to have received the Pfizer vaccine, whereas persons in clinical risk groups and care home residents were more likely to have received the AstraZeneca vaccine. Adjustments and stratified analyses are used to account for or investigate these factors, however, this is unlikely to account for all confounding. Secondly, as the pandemic has progressed, there will be an increasing number of individuals who have been previously infected, both in the vaccinated and the unvaccinated group. Protection due to previous infection in the comparator group will attenuate VE over time. Lastly, there have been changes in testing policy over time, for example, the widespread rollout of lateral flow testing means that PCR testing is increasingly being used as confirmatory testing, therefore there is an increasing risk of false negative PCRs – the resulting misclassification could attenuate VE.

Meanwhile, Israel starts planning for a *4th* shot. Other high income countries will follow because "Just look at Israel!" It's bananas. Low income countries are never going to get their first dose.
 
26 628 cases, 185 deaths and 658 admissions (12th)
Number of cases clearly dropping (usual provisos apply), with the number of hospital admissions following the same shape (delayed by 10 - 14 days). The number of deaths has got some artefacts in it, but does look to have a consistent gradient if the artefacts are ignored.

With little remaining constant it will be very difficult for any data modellers to make sense of all this data (including the ONS data) but hopefully there is enough quality data in the UK and other countries to tease out some data to quantify some of the effects and changes.

Whilst some of the predictions (there were wide variances on all the predictions) did suggest that the number of cases were likely to drop in September, I did not read any analysis of the modelling results as to why it could drop around the time the schools went back in England. Lots of material for Masters projects or PhDs, now or in the near future.
 
Meanwhile, Israel starts planning for a *4th* shot. Other high income countries will follow because "Just look at Israel!" It's bananas. Low income countries are never going to get their first dose.
Have you any idea what the vaccine supply situation is? I’ve no idea…nor how much is stockpiled in fridges.
 
Number of cases clearly dropping (usual provisos apply), with the number of hospital admissions following the same shape (delayed by 10 - 14 days). The number of deaths has got some artefacts in it, but does look to have a consistent gradient if the artefacts are ignored.

With little remaining constant it will be very difficult for any data modellers to make sense of all this data (including the ONS data) but hopefully there is enough quality data in the UK and other countries to tease out some data to quantify some of the effects and changes.

Whilst some of the predictions (there were wide variances on all the predictions) did suggest that the number of cases were likely to drop in September, I did not read any analysis of the modelling results as to why it could drop around the time the schools went back in England. Lots of material for Masters projects or PhDs, now or in the near future.

My daughter only went back on Friday for instance, it'll probably be two or three weeks before schools feed much into the numbers. Again I thought the sudden fall at the weekend (8000 between Friday and Saturday) highly unusual.
 
Have you any idea what the vaccine supply situation is? I’ve no idea…nor how much is stockpiled in fridges.
Gordon Brown reckons there’s now enough to go around:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/09/west-vaccine-doses-covid-production

But IMO it will be a lot harder to get rich countries to release surplus once 4th, 5th, nth doses becomes the norm.

England doesn’t release data on supply, although I think the other nations do. This guy figures it all out:

https://twitter.com/paulmainwood?s=21
 
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Number of cases clearly dropping (usual provisos apply), with the number of hospital admissions following the same shape (delayed by 10 - 14 days). The number of deaths has got some artefacts in it, but does look to have a consistent gradient if the artefacts are ignored.

With little remaining constant it will be very difficult for any data modellers to make sense of all this data (including the ONS data) but hopefully there is enough quality data in the UK and other countries to tease out some data to quantify some of the effects and changes.

Whilst some of the predictions (there were wide variances on all the predictions) did suggest that the number of cases were likely to drop in September, I did not read any analysis of the modelling results as to why it could drop around the time the schools went back in England. Lots of material for Masters projects or PhDs, now or in the near future.

ONS models are not showing any fall in cases, so the mystery here is why hospital admissions are falling. I hadn’t noticed they were in fact.


With an expiry date that might be driving 3rd dose policy

You mean they’re thinking that the choice is between throw them away or use them for a third dose? That would be extraordinary if true! We’ve all become jab happy, ready to be medicalised, presumably because of covid anxiety.
 
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ONS models are not showing any fall in cases, so the mystery here is why hospital admissions are falling. I hadn’t noticed they were in fact.
As explained many times on here, the ONS data lags the number of reported cases for a few reasons and will always over estimate when the number of cases is dropping.

Hospital admissions are increasing, and continue to follow the number of cases, albeit with around a 2 week lag.
 
As explained many times on here, the ONS data lags the number of reported cases for a few reasons and will always over estimate when the number of cases is dropping.

Hospital admissions are increasing, and continue to follow the number of cases, albeit with around a 2 week lag.

Ah right, I misunderstood you about hospital admissions. I just don’t think that the .gov.uk positives have been a good indication of prevalence since the start of summer, they are too dependent on the way people use tests - which is effected by things like the pingdemic, the way delta symptoms don’t line up with the government’s recognised covid symptoms, complacency due to vaccination, the mildness of covid in the vaccinated population etc.
 
A couple of things.

Who is dying? Are they especially vulnerable jabbed folks? Are they unvaccinated? Old? Younger?
Anyone know where or if this data is available?

100+ deaths per day is 36000+ per annum. Would we tolerate this from any other cause when it might be reduced by compulsory mitigation measures?

Many people now saying 'We'll all get it eventually.' Simply dividing daily cases into the population according to my arithmetic projects that outcome in very roughly 4 years. Difficult to know what actually signifies given levels of vaccination.
 
Ah right, I misunderstood you about hospital admissions. I just don’t think that the .gov.uk positives have been a good indication of prevalence since the start of summer, they are too dependent on the way people use tests - which is effected by things like the pingdemic, the way delta symptoms don’t line up with the government’s recognised covid symptoms, complacency due to vaccination, the mildness of covid in the vaccinated population etc.
Both data sources have errors.

The ONS gives a good general picture and is the most accurate for absolute numbers, but the errors in this data means that it is no use to tell whether the numbers are going down unless they are falling quickly (and even then the rate of fall is going to under estimated). Whereas the number of test cases, whilst having errors for the reasons that you have given, will indicate trends over small time periods more effectively.

Whilst there is no way to validate any combined model, knowledge of the error noise models could be used to create a combined estimate from the 2 datasets, that had a reduced error content.
 
Bring in measures soon or risk 7,000 daily Covid hospitalisations, Sage warns

Modellers on the Sage committee expect cases to rise in the coming months after almost all restrictions were lifted this summer, documents show. Daily hospitalisations could plausibly peak at 7,000 in England next month, far surpassing the winter peak, which reached 4,500 UK-wide, according to the updated modelling. Currently about 1,000 people with Covid are being admitted to UK hospital wards each day.

A consensus document from the modellers, written on 8 September, says that rather than the sharp peak anticipated at the end of the summer, hospitalisations could peak next month and remain high into the winter.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...oon-or-risk-7000-daily-covid-cases-sage-warns
 
Bring in measures soon or risk 7,000 daily Covid hospitalisations, Sage warns

Modellers on the Sage committee expect cases to rise in the coming months after almost all restrictions were lifted this summer, documents show. Daily hospitalisations could plausibly peak at 7,000 in England next month, far surpassing the winter peak, which reached 4,500 UK-wide, according to the updated modelling. Currently about 1,000 people with Covid are being admitted to UK hospital wards each day.

A consensus document from the modellers, written on 8 September, says that rather than the sharp peak anticipated at the end of the summer, hospitalisations could peak next month and remain high into the winter.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...oon-or-risk-7000-daily-covid-cases-sage-warns

As I said the other day this government (and some of the population judging by some of the posts on here) have learnt nothing from the last 18 months. It's a truly depressing situation when you have all the evidence in the world presented over and over again and yet we are still governed by people with their head partially in the sand and their eye partially on their bank balance who seem happy to 'wait and see' again and again with the consequences being a large number of avoidable deaths. On top of that they will never be properly held accountable for it!
 
Of the larger European countries latest deaths: UK 185, Spain 155, France 94, Germany 69, Italy 48 and Poland 8.
AFAIK Europe is more open to travel etc than the UK. So is our high figure explained by different definition of Covid death ? Different vaccine ? Wave timing ?
 
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