mandryka
pfm Member
One of the most important panel of experts in the UK is saying there’s considerable uncertainty, you’re not an expert, and you assert confidently that there will be conclusive data pointing in a certain way in the future.
Coronavirus - the new strain XX
- Thread starter gavreid
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One of the most important panel of experts in the UK is saying there’s considerable uncertainty, you’re not an expert, and you assert confidently that there will be conclusive data pointing in a certain way in the future.
There will be conclusive data either way. I expect it to show that there is a big benefit, but I could be wrong, hence I said that there will be conclusive data in the future.
We need to be patient to see what is actually decided and then observe the outcomes. Currently we do not know for sure.
Oh the joy of it all! So my partner's 3 kids (early teens) want to be vaccinated. She wants them to be vaccinated. Her ex/their father is an anti-vaxer and doesn't want them to be vaccinated. They have pointed out to him that it is up to them so now he is saying (to them) that if they get vaccinated he's going to take legal action against their mother for 'brainwashing' them. My question is ... is there ever a time when physical violence can be justified? Not serious as I just keep away from him and don't interact for the kids' sakes, but it's bloody frustrating!
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
AIUI, admitted to hospital and tested positive for Covid-19 in the previous 14 days, ie counts even if not the cause to go to hospital.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...sites/2/2020/12/Publication-definitions-1.pdf
For all relevant data items: a confirmed COVID-19 patient is any patient admitted to the trust who has recently (ie in the last 14 days) tested positive for COVID-19 following a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test.
So as the numbers of hospital attendees rises due to confidence returning in patients to do so, it is obvious that will contribute to the Covid-19 hospitalizations figure even if they are there for something else.
Seanm
pfm Member
Cheers both, although I’m more interested in the definition of hospitalisation as such (or admission, I guess). Trying to gauge the seriousness of that fact by itself. If it means kept in overnight then my kids have never been hospitalised. If it means checked in and examined by someone they’re well into double figures, the klutzes.
TheDecameron
Unicorns fart glitter.
It will be interesting to see if this has an effect on human fertility. Traditionally, contagious diseases have controlled population growth by death but interfering with reproduction would be another string to the bow.
mandryka
pfm Member
The CMOs say this:
notice how guarded it is -- I've bolded the important words, and contrast with the JCVI's comment, again I've bolded the quantifiers
They are not contradicting each other -- but only just!
Maybe my view is that if you live in a deprived area your kids should get vaccinated, because the impact of not attending school is more significant for them. If you live in a richer neighbourhood, it's not so clear!
gavreid
Pretty Words...
The JCVI is divided and some of them are taking an ultra conservative position. We see that not just from the split vote but from the very narrow interpretion of their remit that I pointed out up thread. Their remit is very broad in actual fact. The CMOs are trying to tread a thin line hence the fig leaf of looking through a wider lens etc etc. The CMOs, rather than government, have now referred the matter of the second dose back to JCVI for a rethink.
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
Never mind the disease's effects:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-56415248
"For those who thought that lockdown would leave couples with little else to do than procreate, there was a surprise - not a baby boom but a baby bust. Research shows that the US is facing the biggest slump in births in a century and in parts of Europe the decline is even steeper."
gavreid
Pretty Words...
It is thought that half of all newborns have had covid a doctor told the Education Select Committee last week...
Seanm
pfm Member
Helpful Lancet paper offering an overview of the evidence regarding waning immunity, and of the arguments against general booster programs:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02046-8/fulltext?rss=yes
Concludes:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02046-8/fulltext?rss=yes
Concludes:
They are both being very careful to not to commit to anything. Which suggests that the modelling continues to be very difficult.
Either it is a benefit or it isn't, if it is then it the vaccine should be offered (@gavreid has listed some other benefits for going ahead).
gavreid
Pretty Words...
Javid confirms that boosters for over 50s and first doses 12-15s to go ahead as plan A and as a matter of urgency.
But there is also a plan B, he says, in cases the situation deteriorates.
He says plan B would involve:
The full Autumn/Winter plan is here
Earlier in the press conference given by Lin and Van-Tam
Lim says a drop in effectiveness from 90% to 80% may not seem like much, but it could lead to a doubling in the number of people being admitted to hospital.
If they can protect the NHS, they will save lives, he says.
Van-Tam says by January protection will have waned further. But they don’t know by how much.
The brief from ministers has been to do the most possible to prevent deaths and illness from Covid, he says.
He says if there is going to be a storm, it is better to make your tent secure in advance. It is better to be pre-emptive, and to prepare and plan for the worst eventualities.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...08762d27630dfd#block-61407ec48f08762d27630dfd
But there is also a plan B, he says, in cases the situation deteriorates.
He says plan B would involve:
- Communicating to the public urgently “the need for caution”
- Making face masks compulsory in some settings
- Requiring vaccine passports in some settings
- Asking people to work from home.
The full Autumn/Winter plan is here
Earlier in the press conference given by Lin and Van-Tam
Lim says a drop in effectiveness from 90% to 80% may not seem like much, but it could lead to a doubling in the number of people being admitted to hospital.
If they can protect the NHS, they will save lives, he says.
Van-Tam says by January protection will have waned further. But they don’t know by how much.
The brief from ministers has been to do the most possible to prevent deaths and illness from Covid, he says.
He says if there is going to be a storm, it is better to make your tent secure in advance. It is better to be pre-emptive, and to prepare and plan for the worst eventualities.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...08762d27630dfd#block-61407ec48f08762d27630dfd
Seanm
pfm Member
Expert reaction to the CMOs’ decision on vaccination of 13-15 year olds:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...ered-one-dose-of-the-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/
Various shades of approval.
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...ered-one-dose-of-the-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/
Various shades of approval.
Richard Lines
pfm Member
Good Afternoon All,
I had an EM from Track & Trace yesterday advising I had come into contact with a COVID-19 positive person - what a PITA this is.
Followed the link and answered the questions to be told I didn't need to isolate and SHOULD (not must) get a test. Had planned to go out for a meal as a family yesterday evening to celebrate older son's 21st - cancelled obviously.
Contact employer as I'm flying to Schiphol today, - go for, yet another, private PCR - results negative. Kate goes to the NHS testing station at the same time (still waiting on that result).
Employer and I agree I have exempted status as a seafarer anyway.
UK government web site says I'm OK to go to Holland, Dutch government site says no I have to isolate for 10days until you burrow down and find that, as a seafarer we're exempt again.
How can I be told in an EM from T&T that I MUST isolate and then following the link and answering the questions I don't???
It's no wonder people have deleted the COVID-19 app.
Still there are a lot worse towns than Brielle to be staying in...........
Regards
Richard
I had an EM from Track & Trace yesterday advising I had come into contact with a COVID-19 positive person - what a PITA this is.
Followed the link and answered the questions to be told I didn't need to isolate and SHOULD (not must) get a test. Had planned to go out for a meal as a family yesterday evening to celebrate older son's 21st - cancelled obviously.
Contact employer as I'm flying to Schiphol today, - go for, yet another, private PCR - results negative. Kate goes to the NHS testing station at the same time (still waiting on that result).
Employer and I agree I have exempted status as a seafarer anyway.
UK government web site says I'm OK to go to Holland, Dutch government site says no I have to isolate for 10days until you burrow down and find that, as a seafarer we're exempt again.
How can I be told in an EM from T&T that I MUST isolate and then following the link and answering the questions I don't???
It's no wonder people have deleted the COVID-19 app.
Still there are a lot worse towns than Brielle to be staying in...........
Regards
Richard
paulfromcamden
Baffled
FT reporting that the UK will mix and match booster vaccines.
The UK is preparing to become the first big country to administer “mix and match” coronavirus vaccines for its booster programme, according to senior government figures. Many Britons are expected to have a third, booster dose that is different to their first two jabs, on the basis that it would provide better protection against Covid-19, said the government insiders.
https://www.ft.com/content/a03b8c21-7412-460f-9196-8c41ac80c6eb
The UK is preparing to become the first big country to administer “mix and match” coronavirus vaccines for its booster programme, according to senior government figures. Many Britons are expected to have a third, booster dose that is different to their first two jabs, on the basis that it would provide better protection against Covid-19, said the government insiders.
https://www.ft.com/content/a03b8c21-7412-460f-9196-8c41ac80c6eb
gavreid
Pretty Words...
Pfizer for everyone (while using up the remaining stock of Moderna it seems). Many Europeans will have received a Pfizer 2nd dose after the AZ "issues"...
mandryka
pfm Member
There you go van Tam obviously read your bitchy comment and came to his friend's defence.
Offering is one thing, accepting the offer is another.
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