That's six years older and superseded by the one I linked to. What is interesting is that in the intervening year "reasonable worst case" went from 750k to 315k. Still in the 15 week period though.
As I stated previously, the fact that it raised a
global demand for things like PPE and sanitizers (and bog roll ;-)) not just an increased demand in one or two areas of the globe as we had seen with Ebla, SARS etc etc. The only well documented case of something of this scale and spread was the 'Spanish' 'flu in the early 20th century and there was no PPE or sanitizers so there was simply no empirical evidence of a pandemic of that scale causing global supply chains to collapse.
The other differences are there from the measures suggested for 'flu, that recommendations in the 'flu advice:
...which suggests that some of Covid's 'behaviour' is different to that of the expected and planned for 'flu pandemic. ie, no great surprise (in retrospect) that our planned approach to deal with it was not going to be as effective as the planners thought.
If you read the Cygnus scenario (Annex 2, page 45 of
https://assets.publishing.service.g...t_data/file/927770/exercise-cygnus-report.pdf) you'll see that demanding PPE was part of the response, 21 days after the UK started the "First Few Hundred (FF100) Protocol" (
https://assets.publishing.service.g...360190/2012_13_FF100_Protocol_H7N9_ver_12.pdf).
What is clear from the exercise planning assumptions is that there would enough PPE for 4-5 weeks and there would be no problem receiving the PPE and Respirators ordered. There is nothing in the lessons identified about PPE, so, no, not an obvious course of action off the back of Cygnus. Most of the recommendations were around command and control of the UK response to the pandemic.
I agree we don't have the full picture but I think that some of your view on preparedness is not based on the evidence there but is understandably coloured by your wider view on the Governments since 2006 and the current Government's performance since the pandemic was first noticed.
But (sorry to repeat myself) I'm not arguing about the political decisions made on the information available.