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Stock Market 2021

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Hmmm....so what's the best way to short everything....with security that you won't lose the lot through banks/trading platforms etc..?

andyoz...I'm afraid I take the view that UK property is massively overvalued - an asset bubble if ever there was one - due to years of govt 'interference'. Worse than Oz IMHO. So not convinced that it will escape a hiding. Though at least it's tangible and not in some online account somewhere that could just disappear...
Burying bullion in the garden appears increasingly attractive ..;)

Not in NI it isn't if you bought in 2011/12. Alot of NI property was bought by people from Ireland and some had fallen by 70% by 2012 as the banks pulled the rug from under them....it was a total fire sale. If you want an example of how property is sentiment driven, that is a textbook case.
 
Can you imagine if the ‘emergency rates’ we’ve had for 12 years increased to 5% (which is low in historic terms). Millions of people would be wiped out, let alone the govt.

When I tell people that have just signed up to a 25 year mortgage that by year 5 they might be paying 5% interest...I get the same 'are you mad?' look as when I told people I was buying stuff a decade ago.

I'd say I was being optimistic too...could be much sooner.
 
Well nobody knows,.....I was just on FT.com and a similar debate is raging there. My opinion, and I'm not the only one, is that the demand tide will go out say, by Q4 in US and UK, and a lot of companies will be swimming naked - that will put further dampeners on demand.

Yes, I think it all hinges on the supply side. If that gets sorted, then we get to see the real state of play. In the car market, some used cars are selling for more than new ones simply because there is no stock of new ones. Has anyone ever seen that in living memory?
 
There's mileage for the idea that this inflation trend is going to be temporary spike due to pent-up demand. Once that has been satisfied then the potential reality of businesses decimated by Covid could come to the fore. But no-one truly knows yet.

I think there's a combination of pent up demand and still recovering supply chains, notably in semiconductors. What I can't tell is to what extent the government helicopter money of the past year will (be allowed) to cause significant long term inflation.

Also semiconductor companies have operated for years on razor thin margins, with the exception of a handful of rockstar companies, so they must be salivating at the prospect of making decent margins for a period of time.
 
^ you could re-state all of your post @sean99 in terms of UK construction, and I think it holds.

Tender returns are starting to climb through the roof currently and will for a while yet for exactly the same reasons ... and that does not automatically mean I'm moved to invest in UK construction company via shares... the headline candidates mostly still have structural issues to solve/pay-down / & only if they learn their lessons.
 
But will the rents??
With property it's about holding them for decades for the rental yields and capital gains are secondary.
It's why I bought them in the last massive dip (I still recall the sharp intake of breath when people found out I was buying property...are you mad!!)

There's nearly a decade of rents as the buffer.

Rents? They won’t fall and likely to increase IMHO as the floor is set by housing benefit, creating another false market. I thought about offloading property at the current silly prices but there’s no point. As you say, the capital value is irrelevant, it’s an income stream. A bit like buying shares in decent companies paying divs.
 
When I tell people that have just signed up to a 25 year mortgage that by year 5 they might be paying 5% interest...I get the same 'are you mad?' look as when I told people I was buying stuff a decade ago.

I'd say I was being optimistic too...could be much sooner.

‘House prices are a matter of opinion whereas debt is real’ - Mervyn King
 
Rents? They won’t fall and likely to increase IMHO as the floor is set by housing benefit, creating another false market. I thought about offloading property at the current silly prices but there’s no point. As you say, the capital value is irrelevant, it’s an income stream. A bit like buying shares in decent companies paying divs.

With residential property, you are better to have nice steady trickle of rent for a decade or two instead of buying a house, it going through the roof and then you offload with a big CGT bill and not alot of rent collected. The difference is with the first option, you need patience which appears to be in increasingly short supply when it comes to investing.

You ideally need to have flexible control over your earnings though. When I decide to offload, I sure as hell will be adjusting my 'wages' over those years to minimize CGT tax!
 
Debt is very real and banks can pull the rug from under you in months if the cards don't stack their way

We’ve had over a decade of ‘emergency’ rates, a golden ticket for people to pay down debt. Those of middle age shouldn’t be surprised (or complain) when rates increase. Of course it’s the youngsters who now hold the baby. There’s no solution without pain for a lot of people. We’d be in a stronger position now if they’d have let the cycle play out and maintained 5% IR’s (still historically very low) over the past decade, IMHO.
 
We’ve had over a decade of ‘emergency’ rates, a golden ticket for people to pay down debt. Those of middle age shouldn’t be surprised (or complain) when rates increase. Of course it’s the youngsters who now hold the baby. There’s no solution without pain for a lot of people. We’d be in a stronger position now if they’d have let the cycle play out and maintained 5% IR’s (still historically very low) over the past decade, IMHO.

^^^ This - but clearly many have seen it as a signal to get into even more debt (and that's exactly what the governments want).

I have zero debt on all my assets. Many would think that's a bad plan (and I plan to reverse it a wee bit) but that's my MO.

Twice in my lifetime, I have witnessed what banks can do when the shit hits the fan but luckily wasn't caught out in either of them..
 
^ More market manipulation. Probably wants to top up now that he is starting to lose competitor OEM credit sales.
 
Will be interesting to see how Gold and Silver react. I still think they were a good hedge against this, especially a few months back when their dip appeared to be finding some sort of a bottom.

But it seems to be retracing the last few days so who knows...
 
I am still of the view that this is temporary and once the covid recovery bounce has worked through the system, it will fall back although maybe not too the extreme low levels we are used to. There are a lot of companies and people struggling out there.
 
talking about Tesla, in Europe, it appears that Tesla registrations have fallen off a cliff. In April ( for the countries that have reported) tesla only had 1,6% of the EV market. Looks like VAG is storming the market:

https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL_MONTHLY/Brands/Month/2021/4

Surprise, surprise...

One commentator described Tesla cars as looking like 10 year old Mazda's which nailed it for me (I can't 'unsee' that now). It's pretty easy to dominate a market when you're the only player.

They're under big pressure in China. Good luck beating the 'local' manufacturers there.

The mainstream makers are near to getting their EV's 'good enough' for the next wave of EV adopters and the swing to these other brands will happen quickly. That doesn't mean 500+ mile range or 3 second 0 to 60 times - Tesla has really pushed that spec narrative in the EV fight because they know the competitors are lined up.

It's irrelevant to the majority of buyers once range gets above say 250 miles and gets better with the next generation etc...fast 0-60 times are a thrill during the test drive maybe but as an example my wife wouldn't give a toss. I test drove an Audi e-tron (car dealer neighbour brought it home) and floored it a few times, then got bored and just did the rest of the drive normally...

As I understand it, Porsche, Audi etc don't make their EV cars drivetrains. There's a massive supplier machine out there ready to pump these out en masse for the various car companies when the demand surge comes.
 
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