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Coronavirus - the new strain XVII

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gavreid said:
2 672 cases, 30 deaths and 173 admissions (12th).
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The new cases today, two weeks into the Easter school vacation, are much lower than they were before schools opened on March 8. That can only be due to vaccines I suppose. I mean, the only thing which has changed is vaccines.
 
mandryka said:
The new cases today, two weeks into the Easter school vacation, are much lower than they were before schools opened on March 8. That can only be due to vaccines I suppose. I mean, the only thing which has changed is vaccines.
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Who knows, I don't place much confidence in case numbers but they should be lower if kids had been the dominant group of infections before the holidays. Some schools are off this week while others are back. My daughter tells me that her teachers have largely abandonded masks in the first week back, despite the 'rules'. Many of the kids have given up on the fast tests too. Hospitalisations appear to be levelling out, as do deaths. I don't know if it's an Easter hangover still, or what...
 
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Deaths 43.4 per cent down on this time last week and the lowest number on a Thursday since September 21. Patients in hospital now at 2,395, the lowest since September 27.

All the key figures are continuing to fall.
 
gavreid said:
Who knows, I don't place much confidence in case numbers but they should be lower if kids had been the dominant group of infections before the holidays. Some schools are off this week while others are back. My daughter tells me that her teachers have largely abandonded masks in the first week back, despite the 'rules'. Many of the kids have given up on the fast tests too. Hospitalisations appear to be levelling out, as do deaths. I don't know if it's an Easter hangover still, or what...
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Its not taken long for it all to go out of the window, I'm usually the only one still wearing a mask when on a job. 3 oldies today in a parish council building, no ventilation no masks no nothing, I was the only one with a mask on, I guess they've all had their jabs so have stuck two fingers up to it all.
 
matt j said:
Its not taken long for it all to go out of the window, I'm usually the only one still wearing a mask when on a job. 3 oldies today in a parish council building, no ventilation no masks no nothing, I was the only one with a mask on, I guess they've all had their jabs so have stuck two fingers up to it all.
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Keep on keeping on
 
matt j said:
Its not taken long for it all to go out of the window, I'm usually the only one still wearing a mask when on a job. 3 oldies today in a parish council building, no ventilation no masks no nothing, I was the only one with a mask on, I guess they've all had their jabs so have stuck two fingers up to it all.
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The old curtain twitching gits had probably shopped a few young folk for similar transgressions like laughing in the bus.
 
Seanm said:
I think a lot of people still have no idea about ventilation. Not a single open window when I went to get my jab at the weekend.
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Because it's cold. At least that's what they all say where I go, someone usually goes around and opens them then the staff all close them again.
 
matt j said:
Its not taken long for it all to go out of the window, I'm usually the only one still wearing a mask when on a job. 3 oldies today in a parish council building, no ventilation no masks no nothing, I was the only one with a mask on, I guess they've all had their jabs so have stuck two fingers up to it all.
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I said before that I thought this would happen. I’ve just taken on a job in a vehicle paint shop and I’ve agreed with the owner to do the work in the evenings so I don’t have to come in contact with his staff. Better for them too as it reduces down time while I do the work.
 
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We're close to herd immunity due in large par to vaccination.

 
'India' variant covid sounds like potentially cause for concern.

Prof Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, says the variant features two "escape mutations" - E484Q and L452R - that "are causing people to be concerned".

He adds: "There's laboratory evidence that both of these are escape mutations.

"Basically, applying what we know about other human coronaviruses would suggest that this is going to be even less controlled by vaccine.

"But we don't know that for certain at the moment."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-...7954b90b5e0102e3fc5866&pinned_post_type=share
 
paulfromcamden said:
'India' variant covid sounds like potentially cause for concern.

Prof Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, says the variant features two "escape mutations" - E484Q and L452R - that "are causing people to be concerned".

He adds: "There's laboratory evidence that both of these are escape mutations.

"Basically, applying what we know about other human coronaviruses would suggest that this is going to be even less controlled by vaccine.

"But we don't know that for certain at the moment."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56769560?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=607954b90b5e0102e3fc5866&New Covid variant found in UK has concerning mutations - expert&2021-04-16T09:18:14.590Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:ebd6877a-f2f1-47a8-bd0a-6c3351134628&pinned_post_asset_id=607954b90b5e0102e3fc5866&pinned_post_type=share
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It's all down to the chemistry. When the amino acids that make up the spike protein get switched (by chance) the chemistry at that particular position in the protein changes (and possibly the physical shape too). Most sites don't matter at all they just hold the protein together and allow it to 'fold' into its recognisable and functional shape, some mutations will even lessen the physical stability of the protein, however if it's one of the key spots where the vaccine binds to then the binding will be weakened. That could also weaken the virus too but those variants will quickly die away. Two important mutations (and indeed 3 for some of the others) are likely to be cumulative, hence the concern.

The UK is nowhere near herd immunity btw.
 
This is an interesting piece describing American thinking on boosters. Within it I found some real numbers on infections and deaths post vaccination. There seems to be about 1 in 10 000 'breakthrough infections' at this point in time. Then the chances of being hospitalised and dying seem to scale much as they do in the unvaccinated - which surprised me, it's as if the vaccine has no impact on these people at all.

"Of 77 million people vaccinated in the US, there have been 5,800 such breakthrough infections, Walensky said, including 396 people who required hospitalization and 74 who died."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/covid-19-booster-vaccine-white-house
 
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