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Coronavirus - the new strain XI

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Deej1992 said:
I’m a Labour voter and think that would be totally the wrong course of action.
He’s literally crapping on the very towns and cities that vote Labour and will suffer most from this.
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I don’t think it’s a party political issue, for the reasons you’re pointing out. I think this is will prove to be a major problem for the current « opposition » in parliament. The very word « opposition » is inappropriate given the circumstances, I would say.
 
mandryka said:
like the mining towns in the 1980s, the right think that it’s all a healthy cleaning up process, they’ll provide a minimum safety net, the people will retrain, the cost of the safety net is cheaper than the cost of subsidy , , , ,
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I think they’re genuinely either confused or conflicted about this. They don’t know whether to prop up sectors on the basis that the shock will be temporary or just let “the market” - even one that’s been deliberately shut down - do what it will, and see who sinks and who swims. That’s why it’s all so incoherent: back to the office to prop up city centre land value and sandwich chains, even though there’s bound to be long term changes here, while letting the cultural industries go to hell.
 
Seanm said:
I think they’re genuinely either confused or conflicted about this. They don’t know whether to prop up sectors on the basis that the shock will be temporary or just let “the market” - even one that’s been deliberately shut down - do what it will, and see who sinks and who swims. That’s why it’s all so incoherent: back to the office to prop up city centre land value and sandwich chains, even though there’s bound to be long term changes here, while letting the cultural industries go to hell.
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Well, I hope that Johnson’s right and I’m wrong and that this is just a blip and not a major seismic change. But what do those who think that Johnson’s optimism is misplaced or naive want to do about sectors doomed to fail, like hospitality and tourism? I mean, do they really want to throw good money after bad? Or do they have an economic argument about ROI. It would be interesting to know what left wing economists are saying. Are you an economist?
 
mandryka said:
It’s hard to make case out for this sort of thing, when you look at the details. I remember people tried to make out similar arguments against closing mines rather than subsidising them, but these economic arguments didn’t convince people.
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Run away cases numbers, hospitalisations and deaths will destroy the economy. I think they need to find 50bn for a 5-6 month lockdown over the winter. They can release 'war bonds' repayable at a few percent over the next 50 - 60 years. That's the advantange of having your own currency and central bank.
 
It depends how fast they run, it depends who dies, it depends how many beds you can spare . . . there may be other ways of putting the breaks on than shutting things down.

i haven’t heard Starmer’s ideas about this, does he say why he thinks a « circuit breaker » hard lock down is a good idea? I mean, will it work or will things just take off again when we come out of it? Is it just a shot in the dark or is there actually an argument?

Our experience of lockdown should teach us this: lockdowns are much harder to come out of than to go into. My fear is that they’re not feasible - they’re a waste of time - because there’s no way of coming out of them. That’s why I’m so frustrated that the anti lockdown right haven’t come up with an alternative strategy - they’ve just come up with hot air (like the left and centre - we’re doomed!)
 
lordsummit said:
Almost certainly better than six months of tier three. How many regions have come out of restrictions having gone into them? It’s not working right now is it?
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Would it be two weeks though? That's what they said last time. Not just that but when you open up the virust will just start to spread again. I don't see the point going in and out of lockdowns all the time.
 
mandryka said:
It depends how fast they run, it depends who dies, it depends how many beds you can spare . . . there may be other ways of putting the breaks on than shutting things down.

i haven’t heard Starmer’s ideas about this, does he say why he thinks a « circuit breaker » hard lock down is a good idea? I mean, will it work or will things just take off again when we come out of it? Is it just a shot in the dark or is there actually an argument?
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It won’t work. It’s a jack in a box. Lift the lid and off it goes again, unless you’ve done it enough times for there to be a form of herd immunity. The only way to control this thing is behavioural change and personal responsibility.
 
Ponty said:
It won’t work. It’s a jack in a box. Lift the lid and off it goes again, unless you’ve done it enough times for there to be a form of herd immunity. The only way to control this thing is behavioural change and personal responsibility.
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Well you could just muddle through for a few months till a medical control is found, this is Johnson’s optimism. Truth is, it’s all we’ve got, god help us.

It’s so annoying, the best minds in the world can’t do better than Boris fking Johnson! I’m going to buy myself an amp to cheer myself up I think.
 
mandryka said:
Well you could just muddle through for a few months till a medical control is found, this is Johnson’s optimism. Truth is, it’s all we’ve got, god help us.

It’s so annoying, the best minds in the world can’t do better than Boris fking Johnson!
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I’m not hopeful of a meaningful vaccine. The best in the world have never found one for any coronavirus. I very much hope I’m wrong.
 
droodzilla said:
Good call from Starmer. He's given (or has appeared to give) Johnson the benefit of the doubt long enough and it's important for Labour to able to say what it would have done differently when the bodies start to pile up again.
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On this occasion you are being too lenient. They have taken far too long to draw a line in the sand, and then go on the offensive.
 
Deej1992 said:
I’m a Labour voter and think that would be totally the wrong course of action.
He’s literally crapping on the very towns and cities that vote Labour and will suffer most from this.
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He is following the best available scientific advice and trying not to kill your parents and grandparents. It’s not an unreasonable position IMHO. The Conservatives are doing neither and will end up with both a mountain of bodybags and a failed economy. Given the choice I’d prefer just the latter, though there is a strong argument that a very strong and rigidly enforced lockdown is actually the least economically damaging (look to South Korea, NZ etc).
 
Tony L said:
He is following the best available scientific advice and trying not to kill your parents and grandparents. It’s not an unreasonable position IMHO.
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The suffering and death caused directly by COVID has to be balanced against the suffering and death caused by a failing economy. A failed economy will produce a mountain of body bags. For that reason I think that following the best scientific advice -- where that means medical science -- would indeed be unreasonable.
 
As I said this morning there is nobody in cabinet, in leading positions, capable of weighing up the scientific advice because they cannot understand the consequences of unpicking various aspects, doing this or that instead etc, etc vs the economic impact. Imagine the adsurdity of another SAGE to advise cabinet on the impact of ignoring SAGE. If you set up a committee then you accept its conclusions or else you set up another that will give you the answers that you're looking for - it's basic stuff.
 
gavreid said:
As I said this morning there is nobody in cabinet, in leading positions, capable of weighing up the scientific advice because they cannot understand the consequences of unpicking various aspects, doing this or that instead etc, etc vs the economic impact. Imagine the adsurdity of another SAGE to advise cabinet on the impact of ignoring SAGE. If you set up a committee then you accept its conclusions or else you set up another that will give you the answers that you're looking for - it's basic stuff.
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Are there any economists or sociologists on SAGE?
 
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