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Coronavirus - the new strain IX

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AIUI, it may be because the rise is amongst younger people and so less likely to need hospitalisation.

Yes but it can't only be younger people - that's an enormous simplification. There could be more younger people in the distribution but there's been no apparent growth in hospitalisations, or indeed deaths, at all - none whatsoever...
 
I'm happy with that, obviously, but they don't seem to be increasing at all. I don't mean to be patronising, I don't have an argument, I'm just thinking aloud to provoke discussion, but it's my scientist's eye on the real data, the ONS is just modelling.

So the big dilemma then is whether, in the absence of the most recent real data, do you go with figures based on reliable methodologies or some rule of thumb approach with no proven value? If 4200 is not acceptable to you what figure should be used?
 
So the big dilemma then is whether, in the absence of the most recent real data, do you go with figures based on reliable methodologies or some rule of thumb approach with no proven value? If 4200 is not acceptable to you what figure should be used?

I'm not arguing with 4000. ONS predicts between 2000 and 8000 with 95% confidence, I think. I said in post 1368 confirmed actual cases - you're make an entirely different argument around projected case numbers, which could quite honestly be anything. What I've been saying is no more people are going to hospital...
 
Yes but it can't only be younger people - that's an enormous simplification. There could be more younger people in the distribution but there's been no apparent growth in hospitalisations, or indeed deaths, at all - none whatsoever...

Hence why I deleted the post - you cited the ONS data, I only went off what someone said on the BBC news this morning. :)
 
I'm not arguing with 4000. ONS predicts between 2000 and 8000 with 95% confidence, I think. I said in post 1368 confirmed actual cases - you're make an entirely different argument around projected case numbers, which could quite honestly be anything. What I've been saying is no more people are going to hospital...

You have been arguing with the 4200 new cases a day figure because the hospital admissions don't reflect this, in your opinion. You said it was a week not a day's new cases. Do you now accept this was wrong, the best figure we have is the one I have given which is 95% accurate according to ONS. In their own words "The number of people newly infected with the virus has also increased, with latest data showing an estimated 4,200 new cases of COVID-19 per day in England". Hopes that clarifies the issue for you.
 
Sounds perfectly reasonable to me. Let freedom, er, ring? o_O

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If wearing a mask reduces the size and amount of aerosol virus, that may reduce the amount of viral load people receive. If, as has been suggested, severity of infection corresponds in some degree to viral load, then wearing a mask may not reduce infections, but may reduce hospitalisations, perhaps?
 
Perhaps we could also have an hour for all those people who don’t want to keep to the speed limit, while we’re at it?
What we are seeing is relentless self interest and pressure on government to place commercial interests above public safety, whether it be from The Mullet demanding his boozers stay open throughout the crisis or the aggressive halfwit Bannatyne with his humid indoor transmission sites. The fact that government departments, ministers and their newspaper mouthpieces were all amplifying the “everyone down the pubs” message is unthinking populist government at its worst.
 
quite funny that, I was suggesting that back in April. I can just imagine snipers being placed on the carriageway.

we are about 7 miles north of the M25

I’ve always loved Passport to Pimlico, but it’s probably just what my grandfather used to call « paper talk. »

That being said, given a choice between lockdown and a border at the M25 with some over 50s shielding, the latter would be the right one I think, despite the worry that it could be the thin end of the wedge.
 
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