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Coronavirus - the new strain VIII

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I have commented in here before about my friend who works on pandemic research for the NHS. I spoke with her last night for a while and she (and the team she works in) is incredibly frustrated that no one in the government seems to be prepared to properly listen to the science. She was talking about the recent localised CV19 outbreaks across other countries and here (in Wales I think) that have all happened in meat processing environments. This is more than likely primarily due to temperature (data is currently being gathered and reviewed) so while many point to evidence to show the summer heat is not stopping the virus the belief in the scientific community is that it is greatly slowing the transmission and when winter rolls round we are going to see a different picture due, in part, to colder temperatures and, in part, due to people spending more time indoors together. Apparently many scientists are telling the government that without a vaccine a winter with schools, pubs, restaurants etc. open could be a catastrophe and that the government might be better opening things up now and telling people that in winter things may well have to close up again... she does however acknowledge that while from a health perspective that makes sense, the economic factors make it difficult, but their modelling is currently showing 150K dead over winter if everything is allowed to open. She also said their modelling shows anything less than 2m distance limits are a waste of time as people will effectively ignore 1m as it's too difficult to quantify and isn't far enough away anyway ... regardless of the WHO's stance on it. She didn't have many good words about the WHO actually.... carping from the sidelines and not actually doing anything particularly useful was the general theme. Interesting, if sobering, chat.
 
tiggers said:
She didn't have many good words about the WHO actually.... carping from the sidelines and not actually doing anything particularly useful was the general theme. Interesting, if sobering, chat.
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I don't think the WHO has the funding for intervention on the scale require - 'carping from the sidelines' is their primary function - it was never imagined that they'd simply be ignored by politicians in a moment of crisis.
 
My guess is they will scrap it altogether but without actually saying so.

Based on something along the lines of,
"we will have a world class track/trace system in place by the end of July, so we can be flexible around social distancing. 1m is only 10 times worse than 2m, so use common sense and stay alert.
 
Brian said:
My guess is they will scrap it altogether but without actually saying so.

Based on something along the lines of,
"we will have a world class track/trace system in place by the end of July, so we can be flexible around social distancing. 1m is only 10 times worse than 2m, so use common sense and stay alert.
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It's interesting that 1-2m comes from 1930s research on flu. Using modern high speed photograhy it's now known that coughs reach in excess of 4m and sneezes further...
 
Johnson is on his hind legs announcing all manner of anti-science and abandonments of safety procedures at the dispatch box as I type.

(Thumbs-up: Covid 19 ‘likes’ this)
 
Tony L said:
Johnson is on his hind legs announcing all manner of anti-science and abandonments of safety procedures at the dispatch box as I type.

(Thumbs-up: Covid 19 ‘likes’ this)
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Just got on there and it's Starmer at the box right now.
 
Tony L said:
Johnson is on his hind legs announcing all manner of anti-science and abandonments of safety procedures at the dispatch box as I type.

(Thumbs-up: Covid 19 ‘likes’ this)
Click to expand...

Starmer's on his back asking Johnson to tickle his tummy - regrettably

"He says, although Labour will look at the details, overall it supports what Johnson has announced. He says he thinks the government is trying to do the right thing."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...082875f4490a76#block-5ef1eceb8f082875f4490a76
 
gavreid said:
Starmer's on his back asking Johnson to tickle his tummy - regrettably

"He says, although Labour will look at the details, overall it supports what Johnson has announced. He says he thinks the government is trying to do the right thing."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...082875f4490a76#block-5ef1eceb8f082875f4490a76
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I don't think he has any choice. He has to keep businesses onside if the LP is ever to get elected and the way the media are these days if he were to put one foot wrong in that respect they'd be painting him as a pinko lefty enemy of the economy. :(
 
gavreid said:
I don't think the WHO has the funding for intervention on the scale require - 'carping from the sidelines' is their primary function - it was never imagined that they'd simply be ignored by politicians in a moment of crisis.
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Yes, but as she pointed out their advice has been inconsistent and, in some cases, wrong. She also feels they are a little too in the pocket of the Chinese.
 
tiggers said:
Yes, but as she pointed out their advice has been inconsistent and, in some cases, wrong. She also feels they are a little too in the pocket of the Chinese.
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You need to be careful - this is essentially a trumpism. It's interesting that Chinese scientists recommend a 6m distancing
 
Tony L said:
Johnson is on his hind legs announcing all manner of anti-science and abandonments of safety procedures at the dispatch box as I type.

(Thumbs-up: Covid 19 ‘likes’ this)
Click to expand...

What a complete mess this is now.... I thought it was bad a few weeks back, but now.... just a complete mish-mash of rules and regulations that no one will understand may of which may as well say 'Hello M. Virus would you like to make a new home in me?'.

Need a tee shirt that says 'The government says 1m, but I say 2m, stay the **** away!
 
tiggers said:
I don't think he has any choice. He has to keep businesses onside if the LP is ever to get elected and the way the media are these days if he were to put one foot wrong in that respect they'd be painting him as a pinko lefty enemy of the economy. :(
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Though if they nod along as the country descends into a catastrophic second spike with tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths they’ll co-own that too. A more logical approach would be to simply follow the science and look for cracks between SAGE and other advice and government action. Also apply constant pressure for freedom of information and the one constant in all this is this shower twists and conceals everything it can get away with.
 
gavreid said:
You need to be careful - this is essentially a trumpism. It's interesting that Chinese scientists recommend a 6m distancing
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Not me, I am just the messenger.... she is pretty close to some of the science around this and feels there is evidence emerging around the WHO not being as transparent as perhaps they would have been about certain other countries, but I grant you I haven't seen anything myself. I think the trouble is we tend to dismiss anything Trump says and perhaps sometimes (by the laws of chance maybe) he could have a point. Time will tell I guess.
 
gavreid said:
Starmer's on his back asking Johnson to tickle his tummy - regrettably

"He says, although Labour will look at the details, overall it supports what Johnson has announced. He says he thinks the government is trying to do the right thing."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...082875f4490a76#block-5ef1eceb8f082875f4490a76
Click to expand...

Just because they are called the Opposition, doesn't mean that they have to oppose everything. Unless he has verifiable evidence to the contrary, it is very difficult to go against the scientific advice.
 
i.j.russell said:
Just because they are called the Opposition, doesn't mean that they have to oppose everything. Unless he has verifiable evidence to the contrary, it is very difficult to go against the scientific advice.
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He could have started with David King on 2m - he could have taken the Blackford approach and asked for full publication of the scientific advice - he chose to go belly up I'm afraid.
 
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