Brexit: give me a positive effect... II

[TheDecameron]

It gives me no pleasure to point out that the frugal nations that have put their finances and social costs in order will weather the economic storms ahead better than the nations who have failed to do so.

‘ere! Have you seen Britain’s ballooning deficit? - before the latest Covid-19 spending.

 

[Brian]

I have to, because you keep trying to ignore it and think that Labour supporting Brexit would have pleased their minority of Leavers enough to make up for the majority of Remainers - I disagree, the numbers just don't support that. It's true that Remainers didn't come over from other parties but that is down to the toxicity leadership.



Yes but the majority didn't by about 2:1.

I'm not going to agree with you on this Brian I suggest we park it. I do agree with you that it's all to play for now. It will be interesting if we all get that far. Time for an early evening pint, my bar is now open.

I'll come off the wagon and join you for a virtual one.

Cheers Steve. Keep well.

 

[SteveS1]

I'll come off the wagon and join you for a virtual one.

Cheers Steve. Keep well.

You too Brian.

 

[mattgbell]

We will have to disagree. May’s deal was a remain deal.

I'd be interested to know (genuinely) what your grounds are for thinking that May's exit deal was the same as remaining in the EU, and why you think Norway and Switzerland as non-members of the EU are different from what May's deal would have entailed.

 

[tuga]

Why don't you explain what you see that it's done for us?

According to the Guardian more than 10,000 EU nationals had left the NHS since the EU referendum by the end of November 2019...

NHS staff shortages increase. 90% of health leaders say that understaffing is putting patient safety and care at risk. Latest figures show that there are now 106,000 vacancies across the NHS in England, including over 44,000 vacancies in nursing. This marks an increase from one year ago. (12/2019)
https://www.unison.org.uk

 

[Brian]

I'd be interested to know (genuinely) what your grounds are for thinking that May's exit deal was the same as remaining in the EU, and why you think Norway and Switzerland as non-members of the EU are different from what May's deal would have entailed.

As I understand it, and I'm ok with being corrected, May's deal would keep the UK in the customs union and the single market.

My opinion is it was clear when people cast their vote that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union and leaving the single market. Not doing so means May's deal was not a leave deal.

 

[Brian]

According to the Guardian more than 10,000 EU nationals had left the NHS since the EU referendum by the end of November 2019...

NHS staff shortages increase. 90% of health leaders say that understaffing is putting patient safety and care at risk. Latest figures show that there are now 106,000 vacancies across the NHS in England, including over 44,000 vacancies in nursing. This marks an increase from one year ago. (12/2019)
https://www.unison.org.uk

Very bad, clearly. However, the tories romped home in the GE so the electorate obviously want to leave the EU despite this.

 

[tuga]

Very bad, clearly. However, the tories romped home in the GE so the electorate obviously want to leave the EU despite this.

Either that or they didn't like Corbyn and his fence-sitting stance.

And overal, remain parties got more votes than leave parties:

 

[tonerei]

As I understand it, and I'm ok with being corrected, May's deal would keep the UK in the customs union and the single market.

My opinion is it was clear when people cast their vote that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union and leaving the single market. Not doing so means May's deal was not a leave deal.

There is no doubt if the Labour party had a crystal ball they should have taken May's deal as it was customs union just without a seat at the table. Not a good deal but a much better place to be starting from if one entertained a notion of reversing it in the future. Now it is defo Brexit and as you have said every chance it will be a no deal or poor deal. Labour may not have lost as many seats or ended up with a hung parliament but that is the benefit of hindsight. I think Grieve and Letwin did the right thing but they never unfortunately had the numbers. The two of them would be a lot more pleasant and palatable individuals to be dealing with covid imho. Sad loss

 

[tonerei]

Very bad, clearly. However, the tories romped home in the GE so the electorate obviously want to leave the EU despite this.

Can't like that statement but it is true the electorate or enough of them want it badly enough or just don't see or care the problems it causes. Anyway carry on as one does not want 1000's more posts on Brexit during the respite.

 

[Nick_G]

If the current coronavirus pandemic has taught us anything, then I think the main thing is that the Tory-instigated plan to get one half of the country at war with the other half by stirring up swill about the EU was a completely pointless, expensive and futile waste of time, effort and money. There are much more fundamental and bigger things to concern ourselves with, and the current situation shows us what we truly value as important. Leaving the EU isn't one of them.

 

[thebigfredc]

I do love you little re-writes of history Colin, the ERG and DUP scuppered May's "deal".

I imagine CB's point is if the vote leave Labour MPs had supported May we would have left on a much softer deal.

Also, she would still be PM and Corbyn still at the LP helm.

 

[SteveS1]

I imagine CB's point is if the vote leave Labour MPs had supported May we would have left on a much softer deal.

Also, she would still be PM and Corbyn still at the LP helm.

Labour's traitors did support the government, it was Brexiteers unable to take yes for an answer that lost the deal. Of course they caved with an even worse deal later on and the point of principle (they said) of no split in the UK went without a second thought to their previous allies. No moral high ground there.

 

[Brian]

Either that or they didn't like Corbyn and his fence-sitting stance.

And overal, remain parties got more votes than leave parties:

The Labour policy was clear, that you wanted it to be something else doesn’t mean it was fence sitting.

It doesn’t matter that remain party’s got more individual votes in the GE.

 

[Colin Barron]

You and ET should talk, he thinks the EU treated the southern med countries badly (which I have some, but not all sympathy with) and you think the wealthier countries are good because they are frugal and the less wealthy are presumably not frugal. So fvck 'em eh?

ET is correct when he says for example Greece was treated badly.

There are different levels of debt. There are low interest bonds but as a country takes on more debt this becomes more expensive as interest rates on loans increase.
Italy is at the point of receiving EU loans which are fairly low interest loans. Then there is the corona virus loans which are guaranteed by other countries at low interest rates and the frugal countries are not so keen to approve because they are taking on the risk.

When the cheap loans money is used up then the Greek style loans are an only option. This is where the country is given the loans with conditions attached to slash costs and assets need to be sold to stay afloat. Selling infrastructure will help short term but it means that they will need to be rented back to use them.
These are not just loans , they are the creditors running the country.
https://www.cadtm.org/The-Troika-s-Policy-in-Greece-Rob-the-Greek-people-and-give-the-money-to

 

[mattgbell]

As I understand it, and I'm ok with being corrected, May's deal would keep the UK in the customs union and the single market.

That is certainly not my understanding.

The May withdrawal agreement only kept the UK within certain strictly defined aspects of the customs union and single market for a limited period (the “NI backstop”).

The time limitation on the period was subject to the UK developing technology that operates customs, excise, phytosanitary and other controls on the Ireland-NI border. Since the current UK government says it has already identified how these controls would work, then there was never any reason to suppose that the backstop would have come into effect under May’s agreement. The UK would have been out of the single market and customs union within a year or two.

In any case, the Johnson withdrawal agreement has simply relocated these controls to the Irish Sea. So if you truly believe that the May withdrawal agreement would have kept the UK in the EU, then what we now have, under the Johnson withdrawal agreement, is NI being kept in the EU, and a border being drawn in the Irish Sea. England, Scotland and Wales will be "free", and NI has been thrown under the bus.

You also have to ask yourself why the Johnson withdrawal agreement is what the EU wanted and proposed in the first place. Johnson has simply capitulated to a deal that splits the UK, a deal imposed on us by the EU.

 

[SteveS1]

ET is correct when he says for example Greece was treated badly.

There are different levels of debt. There are low interest bonds but as a country takes on more debt this becomes more expensive as interest rates on loans increase.
Italy is at the point of receiving EU loans which are fairly low interest loans. Then there is the corona virus loans which are guaranteed by other countries at low interest rates and the frugal countries are not so keen to approve because they are taking on the risk.

When the cheap loans money is used up then the Greek style loans are an only option. This is where the country is given the loans with conditions attached to slash costs and assets need to be sold to stay afloat. Selling infrastructure will help short term but it means that they will need to be rented back to use them.
These are not just loans , they are the creditors running the country.
https://www.cadtm.org/The-Troika-s-Policy-in-Greece-Rob-the-Greek-people-and-give-the-money-to

We've been over this before Colin, you are cost focussed and ignoring value. The lending is pretty meaningless in isolation without the assumptions on effects on trade of not lending. There is no point in 'frugal' countries not lending if it reduces their scope to trade or reduces their own growth. Have you actually looked at what the UK is splurging, even prior to CV?

 

[Colin Barron]

We've been over this before Colin, you are cost focussed and ignoring value. The lending is pretty meaningless in isolation without the assumptions on effects on trade of not lending. There is no point in 'frugal' countries not lending if it reduces their scope to trade or reduces their own growth. Have you actually looked at what the UK is splurging, even prior to CV?

It is all about the level of debt and default on loans.

 

[Brian]

That is certainly not my understanding.

The May withdrawal agreement only kept the UK within certain strictly defined aspects of the customs union and single market for a limited period (the “NI backstop”).

The time limitation on the period was subject to the UK developing technology that operates customs, excise, phytosanitary and other controls on the Ireland-NI border. Since the current UK government says it has already identified how these controls would work, then there was never any reason to suppose that the backstop would have come into effect under May’s agreement. The UK would have been out of the single market and customs union within a year or two.

In any case, the Johnson withdrawal agreement has simply relocated these controls to the Irish Sea. So if you truly believe that the May withdrawal agreement would have kept the UK in the EU, then what we now have, under the Johnson withdrawal agreement, is NI being kept in the EU, and a border being drawn in the Irish Sea. England, Scotland and Wales will be "free", and NI has been thrown under the bus.

You also have to ask yourself why the Johnson withdrawal agreement is what the EU wanted and proposed in the first place. Johnson has simply capitulated to a deal that splits the UK, a deal imposed on us by the EU.

It doesn’t matter what I believe. Sufficient MPs did not trust May, they believed the backstop would come into effect and we would be trapped in the single market and customs union, eg we would not leave the EU. May is a remainer and is also an authoritarian who rarely seems to listen. She was trying to get a remain deal through in a dishonest fashion by selling it as a leave deal.

Johnson’s agreement is chaff, imo. I think he wants to leave with no deal and doesn’t really care about anything else.

 

[TheDecameron]

We've been over this before Colin, you are cost focussed and ignoring value. The lending is pretty meaningless in isolation without the assumptions on effects on trade of not lending. There is no point in 'frugal' countries not lending if it reduces their scope to trade or reduces their own growth. Have you actually looked at what the UK is splurging, even prior to CV?

Bung a bob, save a bob, it’s how the household runs.