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Winter election II

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According to the Poll of Polls the Tories lead has been cut quite considerably. Down to about 12 I think. I do not think any Party is going to have a working Majority. There is going to be a lot of horse trading after the 12th IMHO.

The last two polls have seen the Tories' lead cut down into single figures: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

I entered the data from the most recent currently, which is the Panelbase 27-28 Nov poll, into the seat predictor at electionpolling.co.uk, and it still comes out with a Tory majority (339 seats vs Labour's 228). However, the narrowing trend is important. With two successive polls showing it (and the three before that being at worst 11% gaps), it isn't just an outlier. It seems real.

With less than two weeks to go before the election, it is time to start paying more attention to the polls. Maybe there is hope.

Kind regards

- Garry
 
Pathetic. There is no real, just those you convince and those you don’t.
From "voters will never support this" to "voters are a blank slate you can convince of anything" in one post. It's the absolute conviction with which these opinions are stated that triggers me. What are they informed by? It can't be the recent past, or current polling, because look:

49145407098_c4512e3d2c_z.jpg


49145900731_6868439d00_z.jpg


And surely it can't be based on the idea that generic centrist Labour is just inherently more appealing to voters than unabashedly left wing Labour because look:

49145420468_d72d9f66e8_z.jpg


And if it's based on personal experience of talking to hundreds of voters and *actually trying to convince them* then forgive me. But I'd be really, really surprised if that's the case.
 
From "voters will never support this" to "voters are a blank slate you can convince of anything" in one post. It's the absolute conviction with which these opinions are stated that triggers me. What are they informed by? It can't be the recent past, or current polling, because look:

49145407098_c4512e3d2c_z.jpg


49145900731_6868439d00_z.jpg


And surely it can't be based on the idea that generic centrist Labour is just inherently more appealing to voters than unabashedly left wing Labour because look:

49145420468_d72d9f66e8_z.jpg


And if it's based on personal experience of talking to hundreds of voters and *actually trying to convince them* then forgive me. But I'd be really, really surprised if that's the case.
From "voters will never support this" to "voters are a blank slate you can convince of anything" in one post. It's the absolute conviction with which these opinions are stated that triggers me. What are they informed by? It can't be the recent past, or current polling, because look:

49145407098_c4512e3d2c_z.jpg


49145900731_6868439d00_z.jpg


And surely it can't be based on the idea that generic centrist Labour is just inherently more appealing to voters than unabashedly left wing Labour because look:

49145420468_d72d9f66e8_z.jpg


And if it's based on personal experience of talking to hundreds of voters and *actually trying to convince them* then forgive me. But I'd be really, really surprised if that's the case.

What is it you find particularly comforting about those graphs? The Tory share looks relatively stable and the combined opposition roughly the same just distributed differently between Labour and Lib Dem. I do talk to many people, not hundreds. But just like KS I’m finding a high proportion of hostility from people I would not expect it from. I experienced it before in the 80s and it has the same feel. Looking at the graph, Labour are up by roughly what the Lib Dem vote is down. It’s the Tory vote that needs attacking and frankly that isn’t shown as happening.
 
So, best case scenario: Labour are set to lose again, and this time against a PM/party even more extreme, destructive and repugnant than Theresa May’s Tory Party! Go Corbyn!
 
So, best case scenario: Labour are set to lose again, and this time against a PM/party even more extreme, destructive and repugnant than Theresa May’s Tory Party! Go Corbyn!

It's also worth considering that, should the result be exactly the same again, Johnson would be in a better position than May (from his point of view), as he has 'purified' his party of many of those on the left that oppose him. The Hammonds, Grieves, Gaukes, and so on. He has extracted from all parliamentary candidates a promise to pass his Brexit deal, for example. Johnson says that his Tory party is a 'One Nation' party, but I treat that as just one of those things that comes out of his mouth. Looking at who is in his party now, it seems further to the right than for a long time, at least since the days when Michael Portillo wasn't just a man who liked trains a bit too much.

On the other hand, the DUP will be less keen to help this time.

Kind regards

- Garry
 
What is it you find particularly comforting about those graphs? The Tory share looks relatively stable and the combined opposition roughly the same just distributed differently between Labour and Lib Dem. I do talk to many people, not hundreds. But just like KS I’m finding a high proportion of hostility from people I would not expect it from. I experienced it before in the 80s and it has the same feel. Looking at the graph, Labour are up by roughly what the Lib Dem vote is down. It’s the Tory vote that needs attacking and frankly that isn’t shown as happening.
It's comforting to me because it shows that *the same thing is happening this time as last time*: a huge Tory lead is being steadily eroded and Labour are on course to match or exceed the Tory vote. There is not going to be a landslide for the Tories. There is going to be a very narrow win for one party or the other, barring a Christmas miracle.

There are limits to how far the Tory vote can fall *because they have consolidated the leave vote*, which is still roughly 50% of the electorate. You know, those voters we were told Labour should write off to concentrate on Remainers. Turns out Remainers aren't as thick as Swinson thought and they are very reasonably returning to the party that can actually deliver a non-disastrous referendum. The voters we have to worry about are those who have given up on politics altogether or who would likely vote Labour were it not for Brexit. Believe it or not these people have absolutely F-all use for a centrist party assuring them a return to pre-2016 business as usual.
 
As did the majority of Labour members, MPs and voters.
Farage, Boris, May, Cameron, Osbourne & a list too long to mention.

All lying, scummy, self absorbed politicians who, when anyone voted in the ref of 2016, aligned themselves with if you voted leave or remain. There is no one side who can claim otherwise.
 
It's also worth considering that, should the result be exactly the same again, Johnson would be in a better position than May (from his point of view), as he has 'purified' his party of many of those on the left that oppose him. The Hammonds, Grieves, Gaukes, and so on. He has extracted from all parliamentary candidates a promise to pass his Brexit deal, for example. Johnson says that his Tory party is a 'One Nation' party, but I treat that as just one of those things that comes out of his mouth. Looking at who is in his party now, it seems further to the right than for a long time, at least since the days when Michael Portillo wasn't just a man who liked trains a bit too much.

On the other hand, the DUP will be less keen to help this time.

Kind regards

- Garry

Yes and with any luck they will be down in Scotland too.
 
It's also worth considering that, should the result be exactly the same again, Johnson would be in a better position than May (from his point of view), as he has 'purified' his party of many of those on the left that oppose him. The Hammonds, Grieves, Gaukes, and so on. He has extracted from all parliamentary candidates a promise to pass his Brexit deal, for example. Johnson says that his Tory party is a 'One Nation' party, but I treat that as just one of those things that comes out of his mouth. Looking at who is in his party now, it seems further to the right than for a long time, at least since the days when Michael Portillo wasn't just a man who liked trains a bit too much.

I agree entirely and made a similar point upthread. It is clear all moderates (Heidi Allen, Sarah Wollaston, Rory Stewart Dominic Grieve, Ken Clarke etc etc) have either left, been purged by the ERG insurgency, or retired. They are long gone. Johnson’s Conservative Party is now UKIP in all but name. They have even quietly readmitted some EDL-grade racists, homophobes and Islamophobes that had previously been suspended. No one should be in even the slightest doubt just how repugnant, dangerous and extreme the Conservative Party is right now. This is absolutely not the party of Heath, Major or even Thatcher, it is everything that is the Trump Republican/Tea Party brought to our shores. It is the rebirth of Enoch Powell xenophobia blended with billionaire disaster-capitalism and state asset-stripping.
 
So, best case scenario: Labour are set to lose again, and this time against a PM/party even more extreme, destructive and repugnant than Theresa May’s Tory Party! Go Corbyn!
A narrow victory is very possible based on this trajectory and the last one.

What I' like to know is what you think a best case scenario *could* be, in a situation where Labour had Sensible policies and a Sensible leader? Given that Labour has lost Scotland and that half the population really want the thing that the Conservatives are going to do?

Love the way leftists are treated as unrealistic utopians while centrists are all "Labour should be 20 points ahead in the polls!" In *what reality* would this be even remotely possible?

I'll take a narrow win, thank you.
 
A majority of Scots are not daft knackers, just the rabid type of nationalist. I guess you’ll do that liar thing and make out I think all Scots are daft knackers but it’s not true.

Yes, I was very much at home there, lovely people not at all like you and some of the other rabid nationalists posting here, who dislike the horrible English so much. I have friends in and from Scotland, man. They know nationalism isn’t the answer.

These people in the NE you say are dumping Labour are a lot smarter than you. You may not agree with what they might vote for but they are likely to get what they want if they do dump Labour. They know what they’re doing for better or worse. You, on the other hand are so clueless you are more likely to get the opposite of what you are voting for. How dumb is that?
Interestingly (or not) in the area where you lived the results of the last two general elections showed -

(presumably One Nation*) Conservatives - 18,148 up from 12,900

(presumably one nation**) SNP - 15,503 down from 24,130

Where * = "-alist" apparently cannot be added to the word Nation.

Where ** = "alist" is compulsorily added to the word nation.

So it could be argued Brian, that there are potentially 33,651 N/nationalists of one kind or another in parochial wee Angus alone at the last election.
The 6,541 also rans (Labour/LibDems) would presumably add to the One Nation bracket.

Come December 12th I, and many others in parochial wee Angus, will be voting for the SNP as the single viable option to oust the Tory candidate. There is no other party that comes even close.
Nationalism may not be the answer but it is our only meaningful response here.
 
I'll take a narrow win, thank you.

I’ll take anything that averts a far-right Tory majority and stands even a hope in hell of averting Brexit. Anyone with an IQ over about 80 who isn’t a racist or billionaire tax-exile should clearly vote tactically against the Conservative Party even if it means holding their nose in the polling station. The trouble is far too many people are either profoundly thick or racist, hence we are where we are.

Corbyn may be an utter tool as a leader, but by any logical measure he is less economically and socially destructive than the current ERG extremist Conservative Party. He is also highly unlikely to win a majority so centrists looking to tactically vote against Johnson needn’t be too worried about some of the further reaching Labour manifesto pledges which will clearly never be implemented.

To put it another way any scenario that results in people such as Michael Gove, Chris Grayling, Pritti Patel or Jacob Rees Mogg being placed in positions where they can actually impact people’s lives should clearly be strategically voted against. This should be blindingly obvious to anyone.
 
Interestingly (or not) in the area where you lived the results of the last two general elections showed -

(presumably One Nation*) Conservatives - 18,148 up from 12,900

(presumably one nation**) SNP - 15,503 down from 24,130

Where * = "-alist" apparently cannot be added to the word Nation.

Where ** = "alist" is compulsorily added to the word nation.

So it could be argued Brian, that there are potentially 33,651 N/nationalists of one kind or another in parochial wee Angus alone at the last election.
The 6,541 also rans (Labour/LibDems) would presumably add to the One Nation bracket.

Come December 12th I, and many others in parochial wee Angus, will be voting for the SNP as the single viable option to oust the Tory candidate. There is no other party that comes even close.
Nationalism may not be the answer but it is our only meaningful response here.
Yes, you’ve said. And the UK is likely to get a tory govt, you will not get another referendum on independence and there will be a hard brexit. Carry on.

By the way, I’ve lived in other parts of Scotland too, just Brechin for the longest continuous spell of time. I have friends from other parts of Scotland.
 
Yes, you’ve said. And the UK is likely to get a tory govt, you will not get another referendum on independence and there will be a hard brexit. Carry on.

By the way, I’ve lived in other parts of Scotland too, just Brechin for the longest continuous spell of time. I have friends from other parts of Scotland.
Brian, the UK will get the government it gets by what happens with the results outside of Scotland, the same as it ever was.
Just let us take care of our Tory Bastards and look to your own. You really have your work cut out to just break even with them.
 
Brian, the UK will get the government it gets by what happens with the results outside of Scotland, the same as it ever was.
Just let us take care of our Tory Bastards and look to your own. You really have your work cut out to just break even with them.
:D

The system doesn’t work like that.

Dozens of Labour seats in Scotland, if the crazed nationalists saw sense, would help rid the UK of the tories. Scotland would benefit from a UK Labour govt more than it will from a UK Tory govt and inept SNP running Scotland. You won’t be getting independence, Ken. If you do, it will be an even greater disaster for Scotland, but carry on.
 
Dozens of Labour seats in Scotland, if the crazed nationalists saw sense, would help rid the UK of the tories. Scotland would benefit from a UK Labour govt more than it will from a UK Tory govt and inept SNP running Scotland. You won’t be getting independence, Ken. If you do, it will be an even greater disaster for Scotland, but carry on.

If Labour can’t convince people in Scotland to vote Labour that’s hardly the SNP’s fault.
 
I agree entirely and made a similar point upthread. It is clear all moderates (Heidi Allen, Sarah Wollaston, Rory Stewart Dominic Grieve, Ken Clarke etc etc) have either left, been purged by the ERG insurgency, or retired. They are long gone. Johnson’s Conservative Party is now UKIP in all but name. They have even quietly readmitted some EDL-grade racists, homophobes and Islamophobes that had previously been suspended. No one should be in even the slightest doubt just how repugnant, dangerous and extreme the Conservative Party is right now. This is absolutely not the party of Heath, Major or even Thatcher, it is everything that is the Trump Republican/Tea Party brought to our shores. It is the rebirth of Enoch Powell xenophobia blended with billionaire disaster-capitalism and state asset-stripping.

Alongside the purification of the moderates, one thing that seems to be going under the radar (much to Armando Ianucci's chagrin on Twitter, hence me noticing it) is that the Conservative manifesto basically includes carte blanche to rewrite some of the most fundamental aspects of UK politics. It's dressed up as reasonable-sounding stuff, of course, but the potential implications are dire. Don't forget that manifesto commitments are by convention harder for other parties to oppose.

Removal of internal opposition + removal of constitutional restraints = ?

The Conservative Manifesto page 48 said:
After Brexit we also need to look at the broader aspects of our constitution: the relationship between the Government, Parliament and the courts; the functioning of the Royal Prerogative; the role of the House of Lords; and access to justice for ordinary people. The ability of our security services to defend us against terrorism and organised crime is critical. We will update the Human Rights Act and administrative law to ensure that there is a proper balance between the rights of individuals, our vital national security and effective government. We will ensure that judicial review is available to protect the rights of the individuals against an overbearing state, while ensuring that it is not abused to conduct politics by another means or to create needless delays. In our first year we will set up a Constitution, Democracy & Rights Commission that will examine these issues in depth, and come up with proposals to restore trust in our institutions and in how our democracy operates.
 
Alongside the purification of the moderates, one thing that seems to be going under the radar (much to Armando Ianucci's chagrin on Twitter, hence me noticing it) is that the Conservative manifesto basically includes carte blanche to rewrite some of the most fundamental aspects of UK politics. It's dressed up as reasonable-sounding stuff, of course, but the potential implications are dire. Don't forget that manifesto commitments are by convention harder for other parties to oppose.

Removal of internal opposition + removal of constitutional restraints = ?

All far-right ideologies look to erode human rights, civil liberties and remove processes for holding government to legal account. No one should be in the slightest doubt that what we have here is a far-right party. The only surprising thing is just how confident and open they are about their march towards fascism.
 
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