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Vast Brexit thread merge part V

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roman said:
I don't see any mystery about their intentions. I will be stunned if farage does anything other than help the Tories along.

Two cheeks of the same arse.
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It’s an interesting one. Both fear Labour so reason would dictate a dirty pact but they both despise each other and they’re the existential threat to each other. Hubris might win and they’ll go for each other’s throats in the belief they can win. That would be the ideal situation.

Live footage of the riots Private Francois was stoking if we didn’t come out by today-

https://twitter.com/lenoresimson/status/1189828379958292480?s=21
 
TheDecameron said:
It’s an interesting one. Both fear Labour so reason would dictate a dirty pact but they both despise each other and they’re the existential threat to each other. Hubris might win and they’ll go for each other’s throats in the belief they can win. That would be the ideal situation.
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That would be great but I can't see it. They would risk losing everything and have so little to gain.

Makes more sense to get the hard brexit prize on offer with an outside chance of no deal.
 
So Johnson said we'd be leaving today do or die and if we are still in the EU by midnight tonight and Johnson is still alive what more proof do we need that this man is a liar? #DoOrDieLie :D
 
matthewr said:
More on the Best for Britain tactical voting site from Ian Dunt : https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1189818962919481344
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Ian Dunt is wrong about this, and I wish he'd speak out.

As long as getvoting continues to recommend voting Lib-Dem in Sheffield Hallam, it must be seen as partisan. Hallam is a hotly contested Lab/LD marginal, full of university types, and the Conservatives stand no chance here. Correct advice is to voteLab or LD, according to preference.

There's also the small matter of it recommending people vote for Graham Stringer in Blackley and Broughton. Hopefully this is a glitch (from a Remain perspective) and will be fixed soon.
 
You know the Leader of the Opposition is useless when even his most ardent of supporters are advocating mass tactical voting in order to give him any semblance of forming a (minority) government.
 
Please no one remind Katie Hopkins of her promises

EIMdaYzXUAIjaEd
 
droodzilla said:
As long as getvoting continues to recommend voting Lib-Dem in Sheffield Hallam, it must be seen as partisan.
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Huh? Sheffield Hallam is a long term safe Lib Dem seat, Nick Clegg’s, only lost temporarily to Labour due to a backlash against the Tory coalition. The Libs should win it back with comparative ease this time, especially given how unsuited the Labour MP turned out to be. I’d be pretty stunned if they don’t take it back.
 
Tony L said:
Huh? Sheffield Hallam is a long term safe Lib Dem seat, Nick Clegg’s, only lost temporarily to Labour due to a backlash against the Tory coalition.
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Even if you're right (debatable), so what?
We're talking about tactical voting to stop the Tories.
They stand no chance here.
So any tactical voting site that recommends LD in Hallam is partisan.
 
droodzilla said:
As long as getvoting continues to recommend voting Lib-Dem in Sheffield Hallam, it must be seen as partisan. Hallam is a hotly contested Lab/LD marginal, full of university types, and the Conservatives stand no chance here. Correct advice is to voteLab or LD, according to preference.
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Do you know what algorithm they are using? Maybe they are looking back further than 2017, factoring in Nick Clegg's falling popularity, or considering the problems with Jared O'Mara.
 
zarniwoop said:
Do you know what algorithm they are using? Maybe they are looking back further than 2017, factoring in Nick Clegg's falling popularity, or considering the problems with Jared O'Mara.
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One of the many reasons why just looking at 2017 is a poor guide. Look carefully at your own seat as to what patterns have been and how much UKIP, Lib Dem meltdown or other temporary aborations might have skewed recent results.
 
zarniwoop said:
Do you know what algorithm they are using? Maybe they are looking back further than 2017, factoring in Nick Clegg's falling popularity, or considering the problems with Jared O'Mara.
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I don't. The opacity of the method is part of the problem. But I don't think it's anywhere near as granular as you suggest (hence the vote Graham Stringer gaff).

Personally, I think there's a case for looking at the last two or three GE results and making an informed choice based on those. The 2010 result will give an indication of the underlying strength of potential LD support in constituencies where they got hammered post-coalition, and that's useful info. The rest is voodoo.
 
droodzilla said:
I don't. The opacity of the method is part of the problem. But I don't think it's anywhere near as granular as you suggest (hence the vote Graham Stringer gaff).

Personally, I think there's a case for looking at the last two or three GE results and making an informed choice based on those. The 2010 result will give an indication of the underlying strength of potential LD support in constituencies where they got hammered post-coalition, and that's useful info. The rest is voodoo.
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From their FAQ: https://www.getvoting.org/faq.html

get voting said:
A lot has happened since the last General Election in 2017. Some parties have new leaders, others have changed their Brexit policies. This means we can’t rely on the 2017 vote shares in each seat to help us predict what will happen this time. Instead, our recommendations use a technique called multilevel regression and post stratification or MRP for short. It’s now the favoured approach of most political forecasters, and was used to correctly predict the election of Donald Trump, and the surprise wins for Labour in Kensington and Canterbury in 2017. The MRP we have used for these recommendations was undertaken in October 2019 on a sample size of 46,000 voters. We also use, where available, political analysis of local candidates’ past statements and policies. So though our decisions are data-led, we take into account the political situation as well.
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get voting said:
The only way we stop Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage ramming Brexit through is for us to organize our vote -- tactically -- seat by seat, to ensure we maximise of our votes behind the strongest candidate against the Conservative/Brexit Parties. We recommend the candidate/party that is in the best position to defeat the Conservative/Brexit Parties. In some cases, it is obvious which party’s candidate is best placed to beat them. In others, it’s not so clear. Our recommendations take account of the political situation and, where possible, candidates’ known political positions, as well as the likely incumbency bounce of sitting MPs. The pro-European parties have made Remain Alliance agreements at the `national level for some constituencies, some agreements have been made at local level by campaigners and some individual candidates have made statements about tactical voting in their areas. Our recommendation attempts to take all this into account. Conversely, there may be constituencies where a Remain Alliance has been agreed but our data analysis proves it to be counterproductive and there is a candidate who is not participating in the ‘official’ Remain Alliance but who is pro-European and stands a better chance of being elected and beating the Conservatives/Brexit Party. In this case, we would recommend the alternative candidate.
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Although I am not sure that really clears much up. FWIW do trust Ian Dunt though and a number of others who have caused it to pop up in my twitter stream so I am at least confident that the people involved are likely to be straight up.
 
matthewr said:
From their FAQ: https://www.getvoting.org/faq.html





Although I am not sure that really clears much up. FWIW do trust Ian Dunt though and a number of others who have caused it to pop up in my twitter stream so I am at least confident that the people involved are likely to be straight up.
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There is every chance that they are straight up idiots. I’m assuming good faith but also a massively exaggerated faith in “volatility”, polls and the significance of Brexit. See also: all pundits, including Dunt. Suspect there’s also some kind of weighting going on concerning individual candidates‘ stance on Brexit, as if that means anything. Only way to explain their recommendation to vote for Anna Soubrey, despite the fact that CHUK have been polling at 0% for months.
 
If you understand French, there's just been a commemorative Brexit piece (we were supposed to leave today!) on the 13h00 news on France 2; how Britain has always been one-foot-in-one-foot-out. There's some interesting footage of leavers roughly trying to disrupt a pro EEC meeting during the 1975 referendum campaign. Maybe things don't change as much as we think.

The link's here if you're interested: https://www.france.tv/france-2/journal-13h00/

It's up now. The Brexit piece starts about 19minutes in. (There's a piece after about sythesising vanilla flavour cf. the crisp thread!)
 
Seanm said:
There is every chance that they are straight up idiots. I’m assuming good faith but also a massively exaggerated faith in “volatility”, polls and the significance of Brexit. See also: all pundits, including Dunt. Suspect there’s also some kind of weighting going on concerning individual candidates‘ stance on Brexit, as if that means anything. Only way to explain their recommendation to vote for Anna Soubrey, despite the fact that CHUK have been polling at 0% for months.
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Doesn't explain the Graham Stringer recommendation though.
 
Tony L said:
Huh? Sheffield Hallam is a long term safe Lib Dem seat, Nick Clegg’s, only lost temporarily to Labour due to a backlash against the Tory coalition. The Libs should win it back with comparative ease this time, especially given how unsuited the Labour MP turned out to be. I’d be pretty stunned if they don’t take it back.
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droodzilla said:
So any tactical voting site that recommends LD in Hallam is partisan.
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Or it is not partisan and just takes cognisance of the facts the Tony expressed.
 
Seanm said:
There is every chance that they are straight up idiots. I’m assuming good faith but also a massively exaggerated faith in “volatility”, polls and the significance of Brexit. See also: all pundits, including Dunt. Suspect there’s also some kind of weighting going on concerning individual candidates‘ stance on Brexit, as if that means anything. Only way to explain their recommendation to vote for Anna Soubrey, despite the fact that CHUK have been polling at 0% for months.
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Professor Lewis here : https://twitter.com/sjwrenlewis/status/1189854928547860480

I am seriously concerned about this approach. By taking recent polls, it just reflects the result tactical voting is designed to avoid - in this case Labour lose Kensington. It ignores the 2017 experience where Labour's poll position rose during the campaign, and LDs fell.
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