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Vast Brexit thread merge part V

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farfromthesun said:
My local MP - a Tory - will walk the vote come the GE; this leaves me completely disenfranchised by a futile system during the UK's most significant political period for generations. Great.
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My Tory MP has a three figure majority, which normally would make me rather hopeful.
 
Colin L said:
A rather splendid blog post by David Allan Green copied below,
He states quite correctly that the current parliament has actually been very effective by reflecting the differences in opinion and lack of majority for pretty much any or no kind of Brexit. Will of the people is and always has been a fiction used by the unscrupulous for their own ends.


"The United Kingdom is not leaving the European Union tomorrow, by automatic operation of law or otherwise.
The United Kingdom will be having a general election instead, on 12 December 2019 (assuming the current Bill before parliament is enacted).
There is now an Article 50 extension in place until 31 January 2019, although the United Kingdom can depart earlier if the withdrawal agreement is concluded.
What can those with an interest in the law and policy aspects of Brexit make of this general election?

Firstly, it shows that the priority for the current government is not to "get Brexit done".
The government had recently obtained a second reading from Members of Parliament for its Withdrawal Agreement Bill.
This was a significant moment, as it meant that the House of Commons, for the first time since the 2016 referendum, had voted positively in respect of Brexit.

Until then there had been a majority for avoiding No Deal but not for any positive version of a Deal.
A Withdrawal Agreement Bill given a second reading is more likely than not to proceed to a third reading, although there would no doubt have been amendments.
A reasonable period of time would have been needed for proper scrutiny, say of about a month or so.
With a fair parliamentary wind, all the stages of the Bill could have been completed by, say, mid-December.
In other words, there could realistically have been a Withdrawal Amendment Act in place by the date of the general election.
But this government, which supposedly wants to "get Brexit done", has chosen to have a general election instead, and so will lose valuable weeks in which the Bill could have been scrutinised and Brexit achieved.

This demonstrates that the current government's priority cannot be to "get Brexit done".

Second, it means the end of the parliament elected in 2017.
This will be a shame, as it has been a parliament that has become unafraid to stand up to the executive and feisty in its independence.
The people may have voted for Brexit in 2016 but the people also voted in 2017 for Brexit to be delivered by means of a hung parliament.
Both were, in their ways, the "will of the people".
And if the contention is that the people somehow got their vote wrong in 2017 and should have returned a parliament with an overall majority, then one can also contend that their 2016 vote should be revisited too.

Nobody can predict the result of the next general election, but it would appear that many of the strongly independent elements (and individuals) in this current parliament will not be in place.
The 2017-19 parliament will be missed.

And third, it is probably sensible that there is now a general election, despite the points made above.
The 2017-19 parliament had gone as far as it could go.
The current parliament may be commendably irreverent, but it is not in a position to do the one thing which is now required with Brexit, regardless of one's perspective on its merits.
The current parliament cannot address the fundamental problem of Brexit: that is, whether the current Deal is the appropriate means of giving effect to the 2016 mandate, or whether that mandate needs revisiting?
And by implication: does there need to be a referendum, to confirm (or reaffirm) either/or the 2016 mandate and the Deal?
The MPs elected in 2017 are not in the position to ask this question let alone answer it, as they are trapped by their 2017 election promises.
There are not the numbers for a referendum - and there are not the numbers for anything other than support the current Deal on offer.
The 2017-19 parliament was exactly what was needed following the 52:48 referendum result - forcing politicians to compromise and work with other parties.
But a new parliament is needed to look at Brexit afresh and ask if the current Deal is the best way forward.
The December general election result may be a Conservative majority, or there may be a majority for parties that support a further referendum in some form (or even straight revocation).

And for Remainers, a general election is a risk - but a risk to be set aside the near-certainty that the current House of Commons which has passed the current Withdrawal Agreement Bill in principle will eventually pass it overall.
The December election in other words is the Remainers' last chance.
That the current government even wants to give Remainers this opportunity is rather odd".
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Brexit has always been about saving the declining Tory Party. They’ve always known it’s an economic and social disaster but it keeps them alive even if they’re left presiding over a diminished rump of what was Great Britain.
 
jackbarron said:
I'll vote Labour, but they won't get a majority. The combination of Tory newspapers and biased broadcaster, plus the many racists and nationalists in the country, ensures this.

The Lib-Dems keep saying they won't do a deal with Corbyn. They don't however say they won't do a deal with Johnson, if there is a hung Parliament. I reckon they want to gain a few more seats and to get into a coalition with the Tories, if they can amend his Brexit deal a bit. Swinson is Aunty Austerity at heart and is, to be frank, ugly.

Jack
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Well done Jack.
 
My local MP - a Tory - will walk the vote come the GE; this leaves me completely disenfranchised by a futile system during the UK's most significant political period for generations. Great.

Yes it is the same in my Constituency. None other than midget tomato face WW2 veteran Frenchie
 
HarryB said:
Well done Jack.
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My father used to say that you could pin a red rosette on a donkey and the north east would vote for it.

( he started his working life down the pits in Ferryhill. )

I will be interested to see if they have switched their voting alligence to " Racist "
 
gavreid said:
It's important to recognise the politics is dynamic. In 97 the Tories and melted like the Wicked Witch of the West as a result of their divisions over Europe and their total sleaze. Frankly anybody would have won in 97, certainly I think John Smith would have won convincingly, and without the removal of Clause IV from the rulebook. It's an entirely different prospect today, Labour has not recovered completely from the End of the Blair/Brown era in the eyes of the 'public', especially the older generations, and the way that they allowed the blame for the worldwide recession to stick to the Labour Party. Corbyn's had the additional problem of having to fight the stinking remnants of that era i.e., those MPs who remain in the PLP, thanks to Blair's rigid control of the selection process. The polarisation that's happened over Brexit hasn't allowed space for a more thoughtful solution to gain support over the simplistic black and white. I certainly don't think a new Blair would go onto beat BJ.
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Don't bother. Don't bother pointing out that the *actual* Tony Blair is the most hated political figure in the country. Don't mention that Corbyn won more of the popular vote in England and Wales than Tony managed at his peak.

They want their Magic Leader. He has all the good bits of Tony and none of the bad bits. He has left wing policies but no history of left wing politics. He will keep the NHS safe and embark on an ethical foreign policy while inspiring loyalty amongst MPs committed to privatisation and arms sales to Saudi Arabia. He will trick the right wing press into supporting him with his Excellent Communication Skills. He actually exists somewhere and is definitely not a projection of some kind of ideal father figure for people bewildered by the events of the last few years.
 
Seanm said:
Don't mention that Corbyn won more of the popular vote in England and Wales than Tony managed at his peak..
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As far as I can tell Corbyn won 40% of the popular vote in 2017, in his first GE Blair won 43%.

Ah, I can see you excluded the traditional Labour heartland of Scotland to get your figures.
 
Stunsworth said:
As far as I can tell Corbyn won 40% of the popular vote in 2017, in his first GE Blair won 43%.

Ah, I can see you excluded the traditional Labour heartland of Scotland to get your figures.
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Exactly! Corbyn did it *without Scotland*. Despite being toxic to the average Englander!

How did we lose Scotland I wonder.
 
I've moved from the People's Republic of South Norwich where Momentum are apparently trying to remove the excellent Clive Lewis. This seat is usually Lab/LD.

Norwich North is currently Con, but by a tiny margin and Chloe Smith isn't a real player anymore. She beat Labour last time by 500 votes.

This was my 2017 result in my new area.

Con 35,58058.24.0
Lab 18,90230
LD 5,0748.30.1

I assume Labour is my choice here. But what if others choose LD?

In this kind of area LD should stand aside (as should Labour where the LDs are second). I doubt South Norfolk will decide against the Cons, so my vote is, as it always will be here under FPTP, effectively wasted.

Nightmare in progress.

Stephen
 
If Labour make it explicit that we get a referendum on any Brexit deal, they could, conceivably., keep leavers and remainers on board.

But from what I can make out, Corbyn and his supporters aren't going to mention Brexit at all in the campaign.

Stephen
 
TheDecameron said:
Brexit has always been about saving the declining Tory Party. They’ve always known it’s an economic and social disaster but it keeps them alive even if they’re left presiding over a diminished rump of what was Great Britain.
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we should never tire of reminding people of this, even though the fact has been completely lost (aka glossed over) by the meedja
 
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