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Vast Brexit thread merge part III

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Brian said:
Trouble with that argument is people had been suffering those things for 6 years before the referendum because ‘there was no money’.
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I do agree with this and that a significant cause of Brexit was the effects of Austerity. If the government makes life sh1t (or at least sh1ttier) for a significant section of the population then it is hardly surprising that they might vote against other policies of that government and be inclined to believe unfounded promises and misleading arguments.

If one makes people's lives miserable then it should hardly be a surprise that they are willing to gamble on an obviously disruptive change. This was Cummings big insight that proved so effective in the campaign of course. It does though rather speak against the idea that people knew Brexit would make us worse off and voted for it anyway.
 
The best, reasonably objective, measure of the economic damage expected from Brexit is the drop in the £ since 23/6/16.
 
SteveS1 said:
Trying to engage with Colin on the subject of cost v value is a pretty futile exercise. Most of what remains of UK industry and services would collapse with him making the calls.
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Steve you are correct i had problems, like 17.4 million other people, with being told the country has no money on the one hand and on the other that £8 billion net pa (now £10 billion pa) was being sent to subsidise our competitors.
Listening to the likes of Verhofstadt telling us the consequences will be worse for the UK if trade is made more difficult, when actually the whole of Europe will sink into recession is not going to wash with the public. They have done project fear now its toilet paper. Will it work? Maybe, the likes of Bercow and the establishment will get a result and remain. I watched a couple of hours yesterday of the EU parliament and the debate was toxic, the partisan mild disagreement has turned to angry contempt on both sides.
I still believe the establishment will achieve a UK Remain/ May deal and for a billion a month the EU will continue its Federal path.
 
In effect the Federal EU is closer than we think. Is Verhofstadt running the UK from Brussels? We have had traitor Bercow yesterday as the tabloids call him, today we have the leader of the liberals undermining the UK government negotiations, which is a dangerous game to play. What the swing voters will make of this when the blame game gets into full swing remains to be seen. The GE is not far away.
 
Colin Barron said:
Steve you are correct i had problems, like 17.4 million other people, with being told the country has no money on the one hand and on the other that £8 billion net pa (now £10 billion pa) was being sent to subsidise our competitors.
Listening to the likes of Verhofstadt telling us the consequences will be worse for the UK if trade is made more difficult, when actually the whole of Europe will sink into recession is not going to wash with the public. They have done project fear now its toilet paper. Will it work? Maybe, the likes of Bercow and the establishment will get a result and remain. I watched a couple of hours yesterday of the EU parliament and the debate was toxic, the partisan mild disagreement has turned to angry contempt on both sides.
I still believe the establishment will achieve a UK Remain/ May deal and for a billion a month the EU will continue its Federal path.
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Colin, where is the growth going to come from? The reason I keep teasing with the 'accountant' tag is because you can't grow anything by just cutting expenditure. It makes your P&L sheet look better for a while but you're cutting off your nose to spite your face for a temporary 'saving'.

Our contributions are sofa change in terms of GDP and a committed investment in our economy, they buy us into much greater shared resources - just look are what Davis and Johnson are spunking on replicating things we already had access to but with no economy of scale and reduced levels of know how. We have access to an already huge and mature market where existing regs and standards are all known and complied with and tarif free trade systems are in place. Transport costs are cheap, relationships don't have to be developed and none of that comes free.

It will cost fortunes over a long time to recreate that sort of trade and market access with lots of smaller markets, many who are much further away. All that additional development hassle and cost to trade with smaller players who won't come close to replicating what we have and will offer the EU better terms than we get.

It is lunacy and those people you say you are so concerned for will pay a very high price. Please don't persist with the idea that people will wait for jam tomorrow because they never have and with modern levels of expectation, there will be big problems when people start having to fork out and economic conditions make Austerity look like a breeze. The big problem for people thinking it couldn't be any worse is that it bloody well can.
 
Colin Barron said:
In effect the Federal EU is closer than we think. Is Verhofstadt running the UK from Brussels? We have had traitor Bercow yesterday as the tabloids call him, today we have the leader of the liberals undermining the UK government negotiations, which is a dangerous game to play. What the swing voters will make of this when the blame game gets into full swing remains to be seen. The GE is not far away.
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I'm glad you are confident that BJ No Deal will deliver a brighter future.
In fact on all important questions Germany, France and the UK were 'running' the EU.
The UK is going isolationist just as the next recession arrives (I'm not sure Trump can stave it off until after USA elections).
 
wacko said:
The best, reasonably objective, measure of the economic damage expected from Brexit is the drop in the £ since 23/6/16.
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Yes, and what about the 800,000 poor buggers who lost their jobs immediately after the referendum. And the 40% drop in the value of my bleedin' house. I'm furious.
 
thebigfredc said:
Great, as you can read the future with absolute certainty, can you let me know the winning seven numbers for Friday's Euro-millions.

Ray
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If I see a man resolutely sawing away the branch he's standing on my powers of prediction are quite awesome.
 
SteveS1 said:
Colin, where is the growth going to come from? The reason I keep teasing with the 'accountant' tag is because you can't grow anything by just cutting expenditure. It makes your P&L sheet look better for a while but you're cutting off your nose to spite your face for a temporary 'saving'.

Our contributions are sofa change in terms of GDP and a committed investment in our economy, they buy us into much greater shared resources - just look are what Davis and Johnson are spunking on replicating things we already had access to but with no economy of scale and reduced levels of know how. We have access to an already huge and mature market where existing regs and standards are all known and complied with and tarif free trade systems are in place. Transport costs are cheap, relationships don't have to be developed and none of that comes free.

It will cost fortunes over a long time to recreate that sort of trade and market access with lots of smaller markets, many who are much further away. All that additional development hassle and cost to trade with smaller players who won't come close to replicating what we have and will offer the EU better terms than we get.

It is lunacy and those people you say you are so concerned for will pay a very high price. Please don't persist with the idea that people will wait for jam tomorrow because they never have and with modern levels of expectation, there will be big problems when people start having to fork out and economic conditions make Austerity look like a breeze. The big problem for people thinking it couldn't be any worse is that it bloody well can.
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Yeah, but on the plus side it'll be fun watching all the Brexiteers getting upset and bursting their already strained blood vessels when their Utopia turns out to be the nightmare most level headed people predicted!
 
Graham B said:
For utmost clarity, here is a link to the story:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/pol...olls-says-most-now-want-to-stay-a4257476.html

My opinion which is my own is that the whole thing is constructed entirely to allow the wealthy to dodge the incoming EU tax regs, and the malleable majority where whipped into a frenzy behind it by multiple nefarious yet plausible means.

However, if the country has indeed changed its mind, then there should be another ref. I do not see what the problem is with more democracy.

If leavers are so sure that the suicidal hard exit we are about to do really is the will of the people, then surely they have nothing to fear from it. Unless of course they are hiding from the emerging truths of what no deal really represents, and realise that if the question is asked again then their cause will likely be lost.
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In my opinion they can ask the question every 5 years if they like. Now that the only possible Brexit scenario is clearly defined as a no-deal economic suicide and not the Norway model as Farage promised in the 2016 campaign, let the democracy continue!
 
ff1d1l said:
Its quite like, and your posts enable readers to join the dots.
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Wrong again. It’s a picture of me in a restaurant on holiday in a Turkish sea side resort.

Regarding my posts here, I can assure you I am a moderate Brexiteer. Just because I have the temerity to have voted differently in the referendum to the majority of participants on this thread does not mean I am a disciple of Mussolini.

This is your opportunity to scroll back through all of my posts to find something which proves you right. Come on you know you want to. If you can’t find anything you can always get one of your chums on here to play the he must be a thick, racist, geriatric Brexiteer card again.

Raymondoes
 
andrewd said:
In my opinion they can ask the question every 5 years if they like. Now that the only possible Brexit scenario is clearly defined as a no-deal economic suicide and not the Norway model as Farage promised in the 2016 campaign, let the democracy continue!
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That would be absurd. The very worst thing for business is uncertainty.
 
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