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Oh Britain, what have you done (part ∞+21)?

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Sorry to rain on your happy day, but there is a mandate where it counts for the new PM—amongst Tory voters and members.

This will ensure we leave in October without a deal.

Johnson will blame the ensuing chaos on the EU.

The Conservatives will use it as an excuse for further austerity and cutting back of the state. It's win-win for them. There is no way they will vote to bring down their own Government.

Stephen
I'm sorry to bang on about it but this kind of talk is actually dangerous: many in the Labour PLP came close to rebelling and supporting MAy's deal because of it, and something similar could still happen. There just is no way parliament will let no deal go ahead and that should be more obvious now than in December (?) when the threat was first deployed. The only way we're getting no deal is if it's on the ballot of a 2nd ref and we vote for it.
 
LOL, what? I’m not seeing anything ‘radical’ here at all, just bumbling poorly-articulated generic centre-left policies including a little renationalisation of obviously failed privatised utilities, nuclear disarmament etc. This is just generic ‘old Labour’, the only new thing is the staggering levels of structural incompetence and the party’s utter inability to articulate any clear message on the key issues of the day. In reality Corbyn is just a tired old Michael Foot tribute act, and history will treat him just the same.
This is an aggressively uninformed opinion. I mean, it takes wilful incuriosity for a person interested in politics to believe it at this stage.
 
But we do know how effective the hard left have been at local level. We do know how effective a hard left controlled labour party has been in the past in opposition. We do know how effective this current hard left controlled labour party has been in opposition since the Corbyn surge. This is a much bigger negative than the positive effect of a few policies that should start fixing a few of the things that have become broken. Trust is a requirement if people are to vote for a party to implement significant change and not many people trust Corbyn and his faction. The LibDems are unlikely to do much good but most can trust them not to do much harm either and so when people are voting for the lesser of a set of evils they will pickup large numbers of votes.

So what can Corbyn's faction do to start building trust among those that have voted labour in the past but are now voting LibDem, Green, Change, Brexit Party,... I suggested demonstrating an ability to take action against their faith and in favour of pragmatism/evidence/the will of the majority of the centre left they need to vote for them if they are to govern. As the number of opportunities to do this are passed up and grow the more distrust will harden among those whose vote labour needs.

What else might Corbyn's faction do to persuade Tony to vote labour?


There is no need to walk through fire when the conservatives party are in this disarray. All that is needed is to move back towards being a labour party that the centre left, centre and centre right in the UK can vote for. It is not exactly difficult but it does require publicly and believably loosening the grip of the hard left on the controls.
If you can't accept by now - immediately after another election demonstrating the fact - that centrism across the whole of Europe is gone and not coming back then nothing I can say is going to change your mind. The choice is between systemic, egalitarian reform and the far right resistance to it.
 
What else might Corbyn's faction do to persuade Tony to vote labour?

I don’t think they could. Anyone reading my posts needs to grasp I am not a Labour voter. I never have been and I never will be. I’ve ended up voting for them a couple of times for specific reasons, but always later regretted that decision. I have never had any party allegiances and only ever decide after reading manifestos, seeing how credible a party appears, and assessing the bias of the FPTP system in whatever area I am living in at the time (I always vote tactically).

As such it is not me you need to persuade. The people Corbyn is losing are folk like Lordsummit who are life-long Labour, voters, ex-party members, and have stood with the party through thick and thin. I know a lot of folk in this category.
 
I'm sorry to bang on about it but this kind of talk is actually dangerous: many in the Labour PLP came close to rebelling and supporting MAy's deal because of it, and something similar could still happen. There just is no way parliament will let no deal go ahead and that should be more obvious now than in December (?) when the threat was first deployed. The only way we're getting no deal is if it's on the ballot of a 2nd ref and we vote for it.

I don't think I have that much influence in Labour Sean.

Parliament has no influence over letting the clock run out unless the Tories vote their own Government down.

There's no way they'd do that.

There will be no deal to vote on unless the EU rip up the May deal or Johnson changes the red lines. The chances of both are slim to not at all.

Unless there is something I'm missing?

Stephen
 
The choice is between systemic, egalitarian reform and the far right resistance to it.

Sorry... but it just isn't. never has been , never will be.

Human are not programmed to be unselfish.. quite the reverse.

You will always get the occasional Prague Spring but the graph other wise just shows an averaged centrism.

If people were presented with the hard truth of what a Green Party government would have to do to achieve their aims they would never vote them into power.

If people were presented with the hard truth of what a Hard Left government would choose to do they would never vote them into power.

Etc ... the Right Wing

Etc... you name it.

Because ,although people would like a lovely caring trusting and cuddly world, they would like them people over there to have to do it..to do without, to give up some of their splendid life style, to pay for the brave new world.
People want their bigger houses, their cars and their holiday flights and their luxury goods and their cheap 60" TV's with a complete Sky package.

Talk is cheap. Nobody is really willing to pay the big bill that has come due.

You will get the occasional " feeling fluffy about my fellow humans" election results but , when push comes to shove people vote for their own greater self interest. IME.
 
Its just another of many reverse ferrets. Corbyn has been a lifelong advocate of nuclear disarmament (a position FWIW I agree with), yet as with most of his past beliefs and convictions it has been replaced with mealy-mouthed PR-driven fence-sitting and doublespeak.

Labour could easily promise to spend a fortune if they got into power just by scrapping the commitment to Trident and stopping the white elephant that is HS2 ( which , if it ever gets finished will have cost way north of £80 billions )

Thats £150 BILLION that they could have had to spend.
 
I don't think I have that much influence in Labour Sean.

Parliament has no influence over letting the clock run out unless the Tories vote their own Government down.

There's no way they'd do that.

There will be no deal to vote on unless the EU rip up the May deal or Johnson changes the red lines. The chances of both are slim to not at all.

Unless there is something I'm missing?

Stephen
They will force a vote.
 
Sorry... but it just isn't. never has been , never will be.

Human are not programmed to be unselfish.. quite the reverse.

You will always get the occasional Prague Spring but the graph other wise just shows an averaged centrism.

If people were presented with the hard truth of what a Green Party government would have to do to achieve their aims they would never vote them into power.

If people were presented with the hard truth of what a Hard Left government would choose to do they would never vote them into power.

Etc ... the Right Wing

Etc... you name it.

Because ,although people would like a lovely caring trusting and cuddly world, they would like them people over there to have to do it..to do without, to give up some of their splendid life style, to pay for the brave new world.
People want their bigger houses, their cars and their holiday flights and their luxury goods and their cheap 60" TV's with a complete Sky package.

Talk is cheap. Nobody is really willing to pay the big bill that has come due.

You will get the occasional " feeling fluffy about my fellow humans" election results but , when push comes to shove people vote for their own greater self interest. IME.
People vote against their own material self-interest all the time: with austerity, they voted to make themselves poorer so that they could inflict pain on the worse off; people are voting for the Brexit Party to punish young people knowing that they themselves will suffer. Similar passions are being channelled towards more progressive ends. But in the end, the material basis of Corbynism is that it will make its core constituencies better off, immediately and in the long term.
 
Its just another of many reverse ferrets. Corbyn has been a lifelong advocate of nuclear disarmament (a position FWIW I agree with), yet as with most of his past beliefs and convictions it has been replaced with mealy-mouthed PR-driven fence-sitting and doublespeak.
It's either that or one of the examples that h.g. keeps asking for.

Iron law of representative politics: a governing party has to manage an electoral alliance. It's just not sensible to measure the actions a party leader takes to effect that against her or his personal convictions and say, "See! Hypocrite!" (In fact it's kind of populist and I know you don't like that!)
 
How? As far as I can tell there's no way to do that. Force a vote on what?

Stephen
On what they want to do with Brexit: options could include revocation of A50, PV, GE. It's only reasonable to assume on the basis of the last few months that there is a strong political will in parliament to resist no deal and to assert parliamentary sovereignty. The Queen's Speech is one way. I'm no expert on parliamentary procedure, but there will be others: who foresaw all the specific means used to avoid the default position last time? What's important is the political will.
 
On what they want to do with Brexit: options could include revocation of A50, PV, GE. It's only reasonable to assume on the basis of the last few months that there is a strong political will in parliament to resist no deal and to assert parliamentary sovereignty. The Queen's Speech is one way. I'm no expert on parliamentary procedure, but there will be others: who foresaw all the specific means used to avoid the default position last time? What's important is the political will.

*Problem is ...

... a new PM that is there who is specifically chosen by Tory members, most of whom want a hard Brexit.

They can ignore the complaints/suggestions/please of the opposition and the few Tory MPs who don't want a no-deal.

They just need to wait it out until October.

It was different with May—she had a deal to be voted on. Once that was voted down, she tried to find a way through. And, at heart, she obviously understood what a no-deal would really mean for the UK.

Not sure about the QS—you mean Parliament voting it down? Surely that would leave to a GE which is really not going to happen either. Will Tories explicitly vote against implementing manifesto promises?

Anyhow, the new PM can delay it again until November.

Stephen

*I hope I'm wrong!
 
*Problem is ...

... a new PM that is there who is specifically chosen by Tory members, most of whom want a hard Brexit.

They can ignore the complaints/suggestions/please of the opposition and the few Tory MPs who don't want a no-deal.

They just need to wait it out until October.

It was different with May—she had a deal to be voted on. Once that was voted down, she tried to find a way through. And, at heart, she understood what a no-deal would mean.

Not sure about the QS—you mean Parliament voting it down? Surely that would leave to a GE which is really not going to happen either. Anyhow, the new PM can delay it again until November.

Stephen

*I hope I'm wrong!
As I understand it legislation can be attached to a Queen's Speech. The new leader might well choose not to prorogue to avoid a QS but I believe this could be challenged. Speaker has form in accepting such challenges.

I think there are more than a few Tories who would resist no deal - not out of the kindness of their hearts but because they are the party of the establishment, and individually dependent on the establishment for their own careers (in parliament and after), and no deal really is not good for the establishment. Witness Phil and Hunt's recent interventions. The leader won't be allowed to wait things out.
 
As I understand it legislation can be attached to a Queen's Speech. The new leader might well choose not to prorogue to avoid a QS but I believe this could be challenged. Speaker has form in accepting such challenges.

I think there are more than a few Tories who would resist no deal - not out of the kindness of their hearts but because they are the party of the establishment, and individually dependent on the establishment for their own careers (in parliament and after), and no deal really is not good for the establishment. Witness Phil and Hunt's recent interventions. The leader won't be allowed to wait things out.

I guess we'll see.

They only have to wait out 7 or 8 weeks after the new PM is installed and taking into account the recess and conference season.

Any Conservative MP who votes against a new PM in a QS is toast.

But you are right—there may be some arcane rule that gets us out of this mess that was last used in 1756.

Stephen
 
Would that be this commitment to nuclear disarmament Tony ?
Even people not chasing unilateral nuclear disarmament think that a Trident replacement is a bad idea. Nuclear missile submarines are about to become as obsolete as battleships. An insanely expensive way of putting all your nuclear eggs in one very vulnerable basket
 
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